NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - SUNDAY MAY 30TH 2021

Headlines


  • Heavy rain and strong winds for southern WA with a low winding up.

  • Damaging surf easing over the east coast.

  • A near record cold night is on the way for the southeast.

  • Rain possibly developing over inland NSW and SA mid this week.

Wild weather over in WA has continued throughout Saturday night through Sunday, with some heavy falls reported in scattered pockets from the Gascoyne through to the Southern Coastal areas, with a land falling trough and upper low, combining to bring widespread falls.

The low has deepened today and widespread rainfall and strong winds continue for the south coast of WA.


Damaging surf with wave heights of 10-12m in offshore waters, continued on Saturday afternoon but has eased on Sunday. Some inundation was observed along parts of the Mid North Coast and Hunter regions during the abdominally high tides. That risk is diminishing this afternoon with the gales easing off.


Very cold mornings are set to continue into the new working week under a large high. Melbourne saw it's coldest May morning in 72 years this morning with 1.6C observed and widespread frost, locally severe was also reported. More of that to come for inland areas of NSW, VIC and eastern SA on Monday morning.


Frost risk forecast - Valid Monday May 31st 2021.

Severe frosts once again possible with near record temperatures possible overnight and into Monday morning with a large high in place.

Freeze risk forecast - Monday May 31st 2021.

There is also the risk of a freeze for the Great Dividing Range towns especially above 500m during Sunday night and Monday morning. Keep the pipes protected.



National Satellite - Valid Sunday May 30th 2021.

A broad cloud band over WA and far western NT and SA, is producing rain and thunderstorms this afternoon. A low has formed off the south coast of WA wrapping the moisture around the centre and producing heavy rainfall and strong winds. Over the east, relatively clear skies with a large high situated over the southeast and extending a ridge north through NSW, QLD and into the NT and SA.

WA South Coast Satellite - Valid Sunday May 30th 2021.

Extensive rain is falling over eastern WA and into southern WA with the low pressure system. Some heavy falls have been observed already around Albany. More heavy rainfall will push north on the western flank of the low. The rain will clear the west coast during tonight but develop over the coastline near Esperance overnight into Monday.

Rain has been widespread through the inland today and is progressing south and east slowly. More heavy rainfall is coming down over parts of southern WA under that wrap around cloud band with some heavy falls observed and more to come overnight and into Monday. Some locations could see 80-120mm in 24hrs.


Radar composite as of 2pm WST showing extensive rain moving east and heavy rainfall for the southwest.

Overnight rainfall has been heavy across parts of WA, with scattered falls over 50mm, some closing in 100mm near the Gascoyne/Pilbara border. Over 50mm once again in parts of the SWLD. Widespread 10-30mm on top of 10-30mm the previous day for the SWLD. Some areas getting close to saturated now as we head into June.


Observed Rainfall for the 24 hours to 9am Sunday May 30th 2021.

Rainfall since 9am over the southern coast of WA with heavy rainfall still ongoing. 4hrs to 1pm WST. 40mm just east of Albany is the top fall after the same location reported near 60mm to 9am this morning. Again some of these locations could receive close to 100mm of rainfall overnight.

Speaking of rainfall and the rainfall will become progressive and shift through to the east during middle of this week, while conditions relax over in the west. A pattern flip should take place with the upper low moving into the eastern inland while the west has a new ridge moving in, clearing skies and bringing lights winds.


Rainfall forecast for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday May 30th 2021.

Raw data from the modelling is still divergent in where the best of the rainfall will develop over the eastern states, will it stay north of Victoria or come further south of QLD? That will likely be answered in the coming 24-36hrs. For now the region of rainfall is broad for the east. Out west, rainfall for the period is heaviest in the coming 24-48hrs, especially for the south coast. A new cold front may approach the west very late in the 10 day window bringing the the next chance of rainfall there.


GFS Rainfall 00z run - Valid Sunday May 30th 2021. Rainfall next 10 days.

CMC Rainfall 00z run - Valid Sunday May 30th 2021. Rainfall next 10 days. Note the difference in the rain coverage over the east vs GFS. This will be ironed out over coming days.

Synoptic Discussion - GFS 00z 500mb/18000ft flow pattern and underneath that, the surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution.


Monday 31st May 2021.

Upper low over NZ continuing to move east seeing a reduction in the winds and seas from early in the day in response to that. Ridging over the east keeping the skies clear and ripe for cold mornings to continue and out west an upper low is moving through WA bringing more cold and wet weather to the south coast.

Showers with moderate to heavy falls over the south coast of WA will continue to spread along the coast with the low moving east through the day. Showers will become isolated for the west coast of WA with skies clearing. Rain developing for the far west of SA reaching the Nullabor at night, but light falls. After morning frosts, some severe, things clearing to a lovely mild late Autumn day over the east. Showers for the QLD coast, mainly north of Mackay and up to about Cooktown.

Tuesday 1st June 2021.

Upper low continues to move east to be near the SA/WA border with unsettled weather moving east into the state. Ridging lift off the east coast with settled skies holding for the eastern states. Heights reducing over the north so temperatures are also expected to return to seasonal values.

Widespread showers along the southern WA coast will continue in onshore southerly winds, the heaviest of the falls likely to be from Esperance to about the Cocklebiddy. Fine weather returning to the west coast with a new ridge. Cloud increasing through SA with patchy rain developing over the eastern NW Pastoral Districts, spreading into the Ag districts at night. Fine in the east, after another cold start with a milder day to follow in a northerly. A few showers about the east coast of QLD north of Hervey Bay and over the NE of the Top End of the NT, with a dry surge continuing to move through.

Wednesday 2nd of June 2021.

Upper low weakening a little over central SA with the system moving over the Ceduna region. A new ridge in the west of the country will clear skies over WA. Ridging in the east continues to move over towards the Tasman. Another cold front starting to move through the southern ocean.

Showers for the south coast of SA will clear from eastern WA during the day. Rain developing along the trough over parts of central and eastern SA and will move into western NSW, southwest QLD and northwest VIC later in the day with mainly light falls for now. There is the chance of a thunderstorm with the passage of the low through SA during the afternoon. Fine and mostly sunny for northern and western Australia under a new high. Fine weather returning to much of the QLD coast after a morning shower.

Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Upper low moving through inland NSW beginning to deepen and pick up speed towards the east thanks to a cold front moving over southern VIC and TAS through the day. Ridging over WA strengthening and heights coming up over the northern parts of the country. Both areas will see an increase in temperatures during the latter parts of this week.

Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms over western and northern NSW will continue to move east through the state. Rain also running through southern QLD will move east to the coast by night. There could be a couple of moderate to heavy falls with this activity. Largely cloudy and dry for much of northern VIC and southern NSW at this stage. Showers continuing in onshore winds over southern SA. Showers and drizzle with the passage of a weak front over southern VIC and TAS. Dry through the remainder of QLD over the NT and much of WA. Moisture sitting offshore the Pilbara coast in WA may bring an increase of cloud by afternoon but dry for now.

Friday 4th of June 2021.

Upper low carried quickly to the east now, dragged along by a cold front over the southeast. Ridging building in behind the last front over TAS and VIC, with a zonal westerly well to the south being beat down by the ridge. A middle level trough building through the inland of the NT and QLD may produce some cloud but no rainfall at this stage from this feature.

Rain ending over eastern NSW and southeast QLD with the upper low and trough exiting the states. Another cold front over the southeast helping to lift the trough east will bring scattered showers and drizzle for TAS and southern VIC. Light snowfalls possible over TAS in a cold airmass. Dry weather returning to almost the entire inland of Australia, though a cloud band over inland WA may produce cooler than normal temperatures and patchy rainfall at times. Warm in the southwest of the nation in a northeast flow. Drier air continuing for the NT and WA with cooler weather for the tropics.

Saturday 5th of June 2021.

Ridging strengthening over southern Australia with fine weather. Middle level trough deepening a little over the eastern NT and western QLD may start to produce some areas of clouds and isolated showers. Moisture is low at this time. Upper low that brings the inclement weather to the east mid week is offshore. A stronger westerly pattern developing south of the nation may whip a cold front towards WA later in the day with a strengthening upper flow and another possibly over TAS.

Cold front approaching WA will see increasing northwest winds and showers developing for the SWLD later in the day. Cloud may be drawn in from the Indian Ocean ahead of this system from the moisture laying offshore, but no rainfall yet. Southerly winds may bring a few showers onto the east coast but light falls expected. Fine the remainder of the nation though keeping a close eye on the upper trough over inland QLD.

A week from today - Sunday June 6th 2021.

Ridging dominating the weather picture over southern states, though a northward moving cold front through the Southern Ocean may increase winds and clouds for southern Australia during the day. Upper disturbance still hanging up central QLD. Moisture deprived from the system meaning just cloudy skies for now, but coastal areas could see an increase in showery periods.

Becoming windy over southern SA and VIC/TAS with a fast moving cold front coming in later in the day. This will bring a band of showers and strong winds to the southeast later in the day. Cooler in the west with some clearing over SWLD and a cooler spell. Showers developing under the upper disturbance over central parts of the QLD coast. Dry over the remainder of the mainland under high pressure.

Taking it out 10 days - Wednesday 9th of June 2021.

High amplitude pattern developing with a deep upper low over Brisbane, large ridge over the Great Australian Bight and another upper low off the SW of WA. The wavy pattern may begin to slow down with the high amplitude pattern turning the winds more north and south through the region.

Widespread rain over eastern NSW with some heavy falls a chance with a very cold airmass in place over the east. Windy too, with land gales developing near a surface low that would be near Coffs Harbour. Fine through the central parts of the country with a strong ridge. Cold nights with frost under the high pressure too up to about the central NT. A low over the west bringing a windy day for the SWLD, with rain developing later. Some thunderstorms possible as well and a cooler change to follow. But this is 10 days out and will likely change.




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