NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - SUNDAY MAY 16TH

Headlines


  • Dry weather to dominate the coming 7-10 days thanks to a strong high pressure system.

  • Showers and low cloud for southeast Australia early this week.

  • Showers developing later this week for coastal NSW and QLD

  • Showers developing for SWLD of WA.

As promised, the dry spell is continuing under high pressure for large parts of inland Australia, courtesy of the strong high pressure system that is slowly moving east. The high has kept large parts of the inland of the nation dry and clear for the weekend.


National Satellite Picture - Sunday May 16th 2021.

Satellite shows that weak front pushing through southeast Australia, with a stronger burst of showers for southern Tasmania where local hail and thundersqualls are possible tonight. Light showers have moved into southern Victoria with thick overcast conditions and a strong westerly.


Out west there is high cloud shearing off thunderstorms well off the coast near a pressure trough. That will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the west coast on Monday. No severe weather is expected.


Otherwise it is a good looking weekend over the remainder of the nation with relatively clear skies. Scattered cumulus over inland NSW has been stable and broken up through the afternoon.


Upper air pattern at 18000ft over Australia for the coming 10 days - Valid Sunday May 16th 2021.

The upper air pattern reflects the influence of high pressure as it is crossing into the southern states over the course of the week. Onshore winds rotating around the high will be the catalyst for the coastal falls forecast but showers will be likely light and patchy.


Showers may become moderate at times early in the week over western Tasmania, where falls could exceed 20mm.


Showers may become moderate at times later in the week over the Hunter coast to the QLD border later this week with falls getting closer to 20-30mm through the period.


In the short term, a warm and thundery atmosphere will also deliver some scattered falls to WA as a trough passes through.


The weather is likely to be cold overnight for inland areas with widespread frost followed by sunny mild days with warmer than average weather for the west and north of the nation but remaining below average over the east and south of the nation with the continuing southerly flow, which will turn southeast to easterly later this week.


Rainfall forecast for the next 10 days - Valid May 16th 2021.



So for now it is a very dry rainfall picture over the coming week - which is in line with the forecasting from medium term models for this period. Rainfall should return towards the end of the month for large parts of Australia.


Euro Rainfall data - Next 10 days valid May 16th 2021.

The rainfall as you can see is limited to coastal areas of Australia, but I am starting to see a trend of the frontal weather moving north through the southern ocean towards the southwest of the country. This long wave signal is building for the end of the month, to see frontal weather increasing for the end of the month and into June.


GFS Rainfall data - Next 16 days - Valid Sunday May 16th 2021.

GFS has been bullish on the idea of rainfall increasing over southern Australia during the course of the end of the month, really from the 24-25th onwards. This may be ahead of another surge of colder weather for the end of the month.


Frost is the dominate weather feature for the first half of this week for inland areas of the east and south with severe frosts already observed in widespread areas of inland NSW, northern VIC and ACT. Some locations got down to -7C on Sunday morning.


A reprieve from the severe frost on Monday morning thanks to that wave we can see passing through southeast areas tonight. However the severe frosts will return to similar areas that experienced it today, on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Charts to follow on that on Monday once we get a better handle on how the high pressure system behaves.


Frost risk forecast for Monday morning - More details can be found in the Southeast Weather blog folder. Valid Sunday May 16th 2021.

As forecast, the weather is quiet for a good portion of us this week, once again coastal areas picking up on the changeable weather. The colder than normal weather will persist for the east and warmer weather than usual will continue for the west for a good portion of this week as well.


It is not uncommon to have periods of dry through Autumn into early winter as the transitional period continues. With that, I am not alarmed by it. We will see a shift in around 7-10 days time for the nation as the long wave troughs reset and moisture also begins to build up over the west.


Want more tailored weather solutions? A weather chat with me? Let me know by emailing me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org


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