• Major winter storm about the dominate the weather for the southeast and east of the nation this week.

  • Major storm off WA expected to bring another severe weather threat to the region later in the week.

  • Central and northern Australia looking relatively calm with falling humidity values.

We are getting closer to a fairly robust and vigorous weather event for southeast and eastern Australia. The event would be classified as a 1/10 year event for the region, with the slow nature creating a multi day spell of severe weather and very cold temperatures placing a lot of disruption on domestic services and travel but also for those working and using the land.

A significant low pressure system off WA being born out of the tropical moisture sitting offshore, merging with another cold pool offshore in a high amplitude pattern over southern Australia, will see a deep low form. This will bring strong and gusty squally winds to the region with a burst of moderate rainfall later this week.

The cold weather in the southeast and east will rotate around a ridge building over central Australia, allowing the lower humidity and cooler southeast winds to move north, giving a nice cool refreshing shift for northern Australia.

National Satellite Imagery - Sunday June 6th 2021.

A fast flow pattern continues to appear over southern Australia but you can see the impact of the ridge building in over southeast Australia, a little bow has formed in the cloud band over the Bight which is running south of SA through TAS. A very cold airmass starting to appear well south of the nation, and is moving northeast, this will become more evident tomorrow with a speckled mass advancing north. High and middle level cloud over a weakness in the middle levels of QLD is fair weather for the most part. The wettest part of the country is northwest WA with rain moving in with a weak trough.

Temperatures - Valid Sunday June 6th 330PM EST

Warm and sunny over northern Australia with lower humidity values, feeling pretty good up there. The eternal summer continues. Mild in the east after a cold start, with clear sunny skies with no complications. High cloud over southern Australia and persistent fog over the ranges keeping things a little cooler, but a nice warm up over SA and eastern WA with a freshening northwest flow. That will move into the southeast on Monday with a very windy evening on the way. Cloudy skies over SWLD of WA bringing cooler weather and a few showers.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 6th 2021.

GFS 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 6th 2021

CMC 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 6th 2021

Euro 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 6th 2021

Model Analysis and Discussion - Valid Sunday June 6th 2021

GFS 00z run - 500mb flow pattern (18000ft)

GFS 00z run - MSLP and Precipitation Distribution

Monday 7th of June 2021

Strong cold front over the Great Australian Bight the major feature on the synoptic charts for Monday with a strengthening northwest flow aloft, dragging in warm air from the interior. Ridging in the east moving east slowly. New strong ridge moving into WA also setting up a high amplitude pattern, helping to propel cold air in from the south.

Rain developing over the Great Australian Bight with damaging winds ahead of the system through SA, VIC and TAS. Warm ahead of the system in the south and east with increasing cloud about coastal areas of the southeast later. Fine after a morning shower about the SWLD in WA with cloud clearing the Pilbara after overnight rain. Upper trough over north QLD could kick off a few coastal showers.

Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Deep upper low starting to move north towards SA with very cold air. Snowfalls are possible about low levels of SA and moving into western VIC with this atmosphere. A ridge in the east moving offshore but a vigorous thermal and pressure gradient will create damaging winds. High in the west keeping skies clear after a cold start. Fine over the north and northeast.

Showers over the east tending to rain at times, with moderate falls possible about the Lofty Ranges, Lower SE and along the northern slopes of VIC. Snowfalls lowering to 400m in SA and later in the day to 800m in northeast VIC. Heavy rain possible about western and northern TAS. Gale force winds over the southeast with damaging wind gusts. Warm and becoming windy in the west with a deepening low offshore. Fine for most elsewhere, though a few showers possible about the east coast of QLD with a weak east flow.

Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Deep upper low a little quicker to move east into NSW with a very cold airmass lowering the snow line to around 500m through the east. High winds over the southeast and east with damaging winds under a strong low pressure at the surface. Ridging out west moving east a little more quickly, and a ridge in the Tasman Sea strengthening holding up the passage of the low over NSW.

Showers and thunderstorms breaking out of QLD and NSW overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with the passage of a strong cold front and dry line along the boundary, bringing much colder air. Showers to continue through Wednesday with local hail and thunder over the inland of NSW with snowfalls down to 700m over northern NSW and 500m through central and southern NSW but the atmosphere warming over the south with a low forming offshore Sydney. Showers with scattered hail through eastern and central VIC. Dry through SA after a few showers in the morning. A new low offshore WA with damaging winds developing later in the day and rain and storms pushing in at night.

Thursday 10th of June 2021

Deep upper low slow moving offshore with a low directly underneath causing significant severe weather over southeastern and eastern Australia. Cradling high pressure keeping SA dry but slowing the system to a crawl. Low pressure off WA moving through to the southeast thanks to a high over the Bight forcing the system parallel to the coast. A trailing front will be pushing through SWLD.

Deep low offshore Sydney causing strong to gale force squally easterly winds over the south of NSW, with heavy rainfall falling as heavy snow over the Monaro and ACT and back through to the NSW Alpine areas. Flash flooding possible. Damaging winds possible in the east and out of the west with a deep low passing to the southwest of the Capes in WA. Heavy rainfall falling apart over the inland as the trough and front collapse in response to the ridge in the east of WA. Fine elsewhere.

Friday 11th of June 2021

Deep upper low offshore Sydney beginning to weaken through Friday with heavy rain and strong winds continuing for southern NSW and into eastern VIC with strong to gale force winds. Showers with some snowfalls to about 700m through northern NSW down to the Alpine Victoria, beginning to ease and lift to 1000m with warming through the atmosphere. Heights coming up from the west during the day. Another wave approaching WA with more severe weather possible. Heights coming down over northern Australia with below average temperatures possible.

Showers, turning to areas of rain about the South Coast of NSW with moderate falls continuing in a strong southeasterly flow. Showers decreasing for inland areas of the SE of NSW and over Gippsland later. High pressure over SA weakening as the system is squeezed by low pressure on either side. Showers and strong winds for WA with a colder shift later, with gusty gale force westerly winds developing later with another front offshore.

Saturday 12th of June 2021

Upper low slowly moving southeast away from the east coast, but still causing showers and big seas over the east. A zonal flow developing over much of the mainland with a new wave passing over WA with windy wet weather. Temperatures generally below average nationwide.

Showers with some thunder over southern WA with moderate falls along a trough and developing middle and surface low coming out of the westerly flow. A low in the east still bringing windy weather and showers to eastern TAS and East Gippsland and far SE NSW. Fine through the east after a cold start with sunshine. Temperatures rebounding over the NT and northern WA. Patchy rainfall may develop later in the day over the Pilbara and Gascoyne with a new surge of moisture.

Sunday 13th of June 2021

Upper low offshore TAS moving further away. New wave coming into SA weakening but bringing more unsettled weather and cooler weather for much of the nation in a zonal flow. A large low sitting off WA will come in later bringing another round of severe weather.

A low diving off WA taking the rain away from the mainland , with a fresh to strong northerly flow developing over SA. A weak ridge over the east keeping skies partly cloudy. Showers clearing the southeast with the low moving away. Very strong cold front offshore WA approaching and will bring a burst of rain and storms later. Fine elsewhere with temperatures near seasonal over the far north, below average elsewhere.

Tuesday that system from WA brings rain into SA with moderate falls later in SA and western NSW and VIC. Gusty northerly winds will tend colder westerly later. Fine in the far east with another wave lifting east into the Tasman. Heights well below average and weak high pressure evident over WA will do little to keep the wave train at bay with another system approaching SWLD of WA.

Wednesday 16th of June 2021

10 days out and the signal for a very robust and vigorous zonal flow bringing wave after wave of strong front through the south with further cold wet and windy weather. The only near normal weather is over far northern Australia where temperatures will rebound to near normal values.

Strong cold front bringing severe weather over WA with damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Showers with thunderstorms over eastern Australia with cold conditions leading to local hail possible. Isolated showers for SA in an unstable flow and notice the weak high over Central Australia, easily being moved along by systems further west.

Comparison with Euro for the severe weather this week. The models are coming into better agreement this evening.

Monday 7th of June 2021

Deep upper trough and cold front approaching the southern states with a gale force northwest flow developing. Ridging over the east and in the west with a ridge across central Australia keeping things dry and warm.

Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Upper low cutting off from the westerly wind profile, bringing very cold air to SA and western VIC. Strong upper northwest flow on the eastern flank running into warm will cause a band of rain and thunderstorms to break out over central and eastern NSW and southern QLD with the potential for strong to severe storms. Cold with widespread showers and gusty conditions over central and southern SA. Snowfalls will be possible in SA.

Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Deep upper low slowly moving through NSW with widespread showers and storms over NSW clearing offshore. Widespread showers and low level snow developing near the surface low over central NSW with falls of 5-10cm possible above 600m. Rain developing along the central and southern NSW coast later in the day or at night with heavy falls developing. Ridging over WA moving east. A strong system offshore bringing gale force winds to WA later in the day.

Thursday 10th of June 2021

Deep upper low offshore Sydney, peaking in strength with severe weather potential over eastern NSW and southeast VIC. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding, low level snow, damaging winds and big seas. Severe weather risk continues for SWLD of WA with the passage of a deep low offshore to the southwest. Dry for SA with winds easing and a weak ridge moving in. Becoming cooler over QLD and NT with below average values. Warm over WA.

Friday 11th of June 2021

Upper low offshore NSW with a surface low near Sydney, weakening during the day with rain and strong winds slowly easing but it may be at severe thresholds. Weak ridge over SA bringing fine weather with lighter winds building. Strong cold front developing over WA in the wake of the strong low diving into the southern ocean bringing another round of strong winds and heavy rainfall later.

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