Settling conditions across Australia.
A weak trough moving into SA bringing cloudy skies and some showers
Low pressure east of TAS moving east.
Patchy rainfall possible over QLD during the early part of this week.
Weather has settled down after what has been a very dynamic and severe period across southern and eastern Australia. Some locations have seen widespread disruption from heavy rainfall leading to flooding and damaging winds causing widespread power outages.
A high moving over the east is bringing calmer conditions and clear skies with light winds. That will lead to cold nights with local morning frost.
A weak trough is bringing cloud and isolated showers with some thunder to southern and central SA. In the wake of that trough, a few showers persist over WA with a strong cold front approaching in the coming days.
Low pressure that brought the wild weather over eastern and southern Australia is still rotating through the Tasman bringing showers to Tasmania this afternoon but conditions are easing.
A trough moving from SA into the east, will run into a little bit more moisture producing widespread cloudiness and patchy rainfall from early in the week with light falls.
National Satellite - Valid Sunday June 13th 2021
Low pressure has moved well enough away from Tasmania clearing skies from the southeast mainland. A trough passing through SA and NT producing scattered showers and a thunderstorm with limited moisture meaning light rainfall. A cold front is starting to move northeast southwest of WA. Dry and clear over the east under a high pressure ridge which extends into QLD and the NT.
Temperatures - Valid Sunday June 13th 2021
Nice pulse of warmer air moving into SA ahead of a trough and that is finally bringing the weather back to seasonal over parts of western NSW and parts of southwest QLD. Temperatures moving above average over scattered pockets of the interior, but still below average over the southwest and southeast.
You can see the influence of the trough drawing in the northwest winds through SA, and those elevated numbers around Coober Pedy and Oodnadatta. Cooler back through the southeast with the cold air still in the region, and onshore winds and cloudy skies bringing cloudy conditions to parts of southwest WA.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 13th 2021
GFS Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 13th 2021 00z run
CMC Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 13th 2021 00z run
Euro Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 13th 2021 00z run
ACCESS Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 13th 2021 00z run
Model Discussion and Analysis
GFS Rainfall -500mb/18000ft flow pattern Valid Sunday June 13th 2021 00z run
GFS Rainfall - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution.
Monday June 14th 2021
Fast zonal flow over the central of the country with a few waves embedded in the southern branch of that flow producing some inclement weather over SA and WA. Strong cold front will be advancing through SWLD of WA with increasing cold weather. Heights below average through the nation with the chance of some below average temperatures returning to some parts of the interior. Ridging over the southeast keeping things settled.
Limited moisture near a weak trough producing some patchy light rainfall through outback SA extending into southwest and southern QLD. Strong cold front clipping the southwest of the nation bringing the chance of windy weather back to the coast and widespread showers developing, with a colder change. Fine for the most part over NSW and VIC with cold nights giving way to a fine and sunny day, with high and middle level cloud about.
Tuesday June 15th 2021
Strong cold front cutting off into a deep upper low spreading through the Bight with gusty cold conditions spreading east. A fast mid latitude westerly wind regime moving through the central parts of the country. High pressure ridge over southwest WA clearing skies during the afternoon. Ridging holding out over TAS and extending a ridge through NSW into QLD.
Showers and a cold airmass spreading through southern coastal areas of WA into SA with a gusty westerly flow. Strong northerly winds developing over VIC and NSW with a milder day on the way. Cloud increasing over the NW of WA but no rainfall expected. Trough over QLD expected to break down and lift out a little more efficiently with clearing skies.
Wednesday June 16th 2021
Upper low moving east though losing strength as it heads into VIC and NSW. Cold weather moving from SA through to the eastern states later in the day if not at night, with a gusty change. Ridging moving in over WA with clearing skies with light winds and sunny skies. Heights coming up over northern Australia with a light wind regime.
A low of 1004hPa southwest of Adelaide driving showers and storms with strong winds over the southeast states, with a colder shift moving into VIC and NSW later in the day. New high pressure ridging in over southwest WA with conditions clearing and winds abating later. Cloud redeveloping over inland QLD and NSW with patchy rainfall breaking out later in the day with a trough moving through the southeast and east.
Thursday June 17th 2021
Broad troughing over the southeast states with a pair of upper lows driving wet and cold weather through the southeast states with temperatures well below the average. Upper trough over WA producing cloud but mostly dry conditions for now. Strengthening ridge over WA with clearing skies and temperatures rebounding with more sunshine available.
Showers with some thunder over QLD contracting east towards the east coast and clearing offshore with a parent front to the south clearing offshore NSW. A low pressure system developing off the southeast coast of NSW with strong winds and showers increasing for the southeast of the state. A follow up cold front with strong and gusty winds with showers redeveloping through coastal SA and western VIC later with an even colder airmass. Local hail and thunder spreading throughout. Snowfalls developing over Alpine areas later.
Friday June 18th 2021
Upper trough consolidating and progressing east and north through the eastern parts of the state with a cold airmass in toe. Upper ridge over WA also spreading eastwards, clearing skies through SA through the day. Weak upper trough over WA but inactive with limited moisture for now.
Deep cold southerly flow with increasing showers through the southeast states with the potential for low level snowfalls, but once again, moisture is not as deep as the previous event. But very cold air will begin to move north of the eastern inland. High pressure moving into WA with a firm centre of 1033hPa advancing into SA later. More moisture over the NT and QLD could trigger some morning showers but overall light falls for now and clearing. Dry air returns later in the week.
Saturday June 19th 2021
Upper low quickly moving offshore with a fast flow pattern developing over the nation Upper ridge moving into the Bight bringing the fine and drier weather back through SA and WA, with the weather easing over southeast states during the day. Weak upper system hanging back through the outback will be moving east too.
Strong high moving south of SA bringing a drier airmass and stable air over much of the nation. Upper trough over the Tasman deepening once again with a soup bowl of low pressure sitting there rotating under the upper level circulation. Some of these low pressure systems could skirt along the NSW coast bringing showers and strong winds with heavy surf. A northwest flow over WA ahead of another front over WA with a warmer flow building bringing temperatures up. Drier air moving into the NT.
Sunday June 20th 2021
Ridging over the southeast keeping things calm and quiet after cold nights, milder weather. Upper trough over QLD moving eastwards. A strong front approaching WA with a fast flow pattern and cold air in toe bringing more cold weather back to the southwest of the nation.
Strong cold front pushing into WA with a broad band of rain with strong and gusty northwest winds shifting westerly later in the day. High pressure anchored over the southeast keeping skies clear though a persistent low pressure in the east will still send showers up the NSW coast with gusty conditions. Moisture offshore WA may be drawn southeast into the developing frontal passage coming into southwest areas later in the day.
Tuesday June 22nd 2021
Strong cold front passing through the southeast bringing a burst of rain and strong and gusty cold winds into the region. High pressure ridging into southwest WA will see winds ease and conditions become brighter. Ridging over the Tasman Sea will see conditions stable over QLD and NSW initially before an increase of cloud.
Nice impulse of moisture coming into WA may bring a burst of rainfall towards northwest WA later in the day. A very strong cold airmass with a front bringing widespread showers and windy weather, with moderate falls possible. Local hail and thunder possible and snowfalls developing to low levels. High pressure over southwest WA will bring fine and dry weather after cold starts over the region.