NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - SATURDAY JUNE 12TH 2021

Headlines


  • Easing conditions across the southeast as new high pressure ridges in.

  • Showers for the west and south coast of WA.

  • Warm with lovely dry season conditions over northern Australia.

  • Patchy rainfall developing over QLD early next week.

The pattern is relaxing once again after a wave of quite volatile weather that brought cyclonic winds and flooding to VIC and southeast NSW and low level snowfalls. The weather easing today with lighter winds about.


Showers over the southern and western coast of WA with light to moderate falls in a cool westerly.


Warm over the Top End, cold nights continue inland with lovely dry southeasterly winds developing throughout the weekend on the backside of that cold outbreak through southern and western Australia.


Patchy rainfall developing through QLD with an upper trough during the early part of the week with light falls expected.


National Satellite Picture - Saturday 12th June 2021

Deep low offshore the east coast driving showers and strong winds into the southeast with conditions easing throughout today as the low moves towards Tasmania. A coastal trough and front triggering showers and thunderstorms with marginally cooler conditions for the west and south of the nation. Clear skies over much of NSW and QLD with a broad weak high in place. Weak cloud band developing off WA will remain inactive.

Upper low over the southeast is slowly moving towards the southeast which will lead to showers easing over Victoria this afternoon but the rain will persist for Tasmania in unstable onshore easterly winds. Some heavy falls possible there, but the severe weather threat for the east and southeast mainland is over.

Radar - Valid Saturday June 12th 2021

Widespread showers over the southeast this morning will begin to ease as a low moves to the south and east away from the area. Showers over southwest parts of the nation with light falls for now. Thunderstorms possible about the southwest later today in an unstable atmosphere.

Temperatures - Valid Saturday June 12th 2021.

Cold through the southeast with high pressure damming the cold air in place through the eastern inland, with a block to the east. Cool through the NT this morning but a nice dry warm up expected today. Warm through central and northern WA with fresh northwest winds.

Cold weather through the southeast on the top side of a low pressure system with cloudy skies over VIC and southern NSW. Clearer the further north you go with light winds, so temperatures rebounding there today. Mild through SA today after a cool start.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday June 11th 2021.

GFS Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Saturday June 12th 2021

CMC Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Saturday June 12th 2021

Euro Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Saturday June 12th 2021

Model discussion and anaylsis


GFS 18z run Saturday 12th June 2021

500mb/18000ft flow pattern

Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution.


Sunday 13th June 2021

Upper low finally moving off to the southeast during Saturday into Sunday seeing conditions ease over the southeast. Blocking over the Tasman Sea through the morning. Zonal flow over the west keeping things cool with a westerly. Heights recovering a little over the north with broad ridging in place. Ridging over the southeast clearing skies for the eastern inland.

Showers easing over the southeast with the low moving away. A new trough moving into SA later in the day bringing a few showers to central and southern parts of the state. A trough over Central QLD producing patchy rainfall later in the day. Fine weather elsewhere under weak ridging with a cold night followed by a sunny day. Fine weather over northern Australia with seasonal temperatures. Cold front approaching WA later in the day will bring strong winds and showers to the SWLD during the afternoon and evening.

Monday 14th June 2021

Upper level trough moving over SA and into the east during the day. Strong cold front rolling through southern WA with another cold front later in the day. Ridging over the east beginning to break down as does the blocking pattern over the Tasman Sea. Zonal flow over the majority of the mainland with the waves embedded over the south.

A low with several cold fronts rotating through southern parts of the nation with a gusty cold southwest to northwest flow. Showers developing for the southern coast of SA through the day with a gusty wind. Trough over QLD producing patchy rainfall about the central and southern inland during the day, with light falls. Warmer over the southeast as a northerly flow begins to freshen. Southwest winds and showers easing for the SWLD during the day with a cold airmass descending.

Tuesday 15th June 2021

Deep upper low moving over southern WA into southern SA during Monday into Tuesday with a gusty cold airmass moving east. Ridging over the east breaking down allowing the free passage of this front and low into the southeast. A zonal flow with heights below normal keeping temperatures below average of large parts of the mainland though dry for now.

Patchy rainfall over central QLD thanks to a trough that is being drawn southwest into the strong and gusty northwest flow aloft over southeastern Australia. Cloud increasing over much of the east though remaining dry under a weak ridge. High pressure building into the southwest of the nation, keeping the southwest flow and showers going for southern WA. Over SA and VIC, showers becoming more widespread with local hail and thunder developing. Snowfalls later over Alpine areas.

Wednesday 16th June 2021

Deep upper low tracking east bringing widespread cold weather to southern and western Australia diving into the east during Tuesday into Wednesday. Ridging over WA slowly extending west, but the unstable southwest flow continues. Heights about normal over the north with a weak easterly flow, though a fast moving mid latitude westerly belt continues over the nation.

Showers and thunderstorms breaking out over the east during Tuesday will march east during Wednesday with some moderate falls over the Great Dividing Range. Showers increasing over much of the southeast, local hail and thunder with squalls possible and snow down to less than 800m. Another cloud band developing over the Indian Ocean may extend into the jet stream with a little rain over coastal areas. Another frontal system approaching SA with a burst of showers later in the day, as a clipper system bringing more cold air.

Thursday 17th June 2021

Upper low moving over Victoria during Wednesday will progress east into Thursday with a broad frontal system passing east. Another front on the approach to SA will bring another burst of cold air, but the strength remains to be seen. A new high developing off WA is slow moving and ridging over the east building but moving eastwards towards NZ.

New frontal system passing into the southeast with yet another burst of showery weather Wednesday night into Thursday, local hail and coastal thunder with some squalls. A low pressure system forming off the south coast of NSW may bring showers and areas of rainfall to Gippsland and eastern TAS. A weak cloud band over the outback of WA and southwest NT will bring some patchy rainfall. Fine weather returns to the SWLD of WA with cold nights developing.

Friday 18th June 2021

The low over the east and another upper trough over SA begins to move east through the southeast region during Thursday and into Friday with further wintry weather. Another upper trough over WA begins to form but largely inactive for now. Ridging over WA continues to strengthen with light winds and clear skies leading to cold nights.

Patchy rainfall near a developing upper trough over inland WA will continue to bring large amounts of cloud and a little rainfall over interior WA and NT. Cloud developing over the NT with cool temperatures for Darwin and the Top End. Low pressure developing off the east coast sending very cold air north and northwest into QLD with some showery periods along the east coast with gusty southerly winds. High pressure moving into the central parts of the nation. Cold air over the east of the high could become trapped over the eastern inland keeping a layer of instability in the atmosphere.

Monday 21st June 2021

Complex low with multiple troughs over the Tasman moving east. Ridging building over the southeast with calm conditions. Upper low over WA with more unstable weather developing. Generally dry elsewhere with heights about normal.

Trough with widespread instability offshore the east coast, may develop another surface low along the NSW coast with further rain and thunderstorms over the eastern seaboard. Showers increasing over WA with a deep upper low building over the region. High pressure system over the southeast keeping things calm and cool with light winds.

Need more weather information for your part of the world? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for further details.

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