NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - SATURDAY 3RD OF JULY 2021.

Headlines


  • Rainfall for QLD lifting out and clearing during Sunday morning with a drier airmass to follow.

  • Fine and settled weather returns to the eastern inland with high pressure nudging in, cold night on the way for inland SA.

  • Rain developing throughout WA later Sunday and persisting into next week with a long wave slowly moving through.

  • Rain developing over the southern and eastern parts of the nation later in the week with mixed signals on who gets what.

It has been an active week of weather throughout eastern and southeastern Australia with a slow moving trough and low pressure system bringing widespread rainfall for QLD and NSW, many recording their monthly average or more in a sitting, with cold weather and widespread showers for southeast SA and southwest VIC producing half a months worth of rainfall for some.


The weather is slowly clearing east with high pressure ridging in over the central interior tonight and tracking further east during Sunday with the airmass becoming more stable and drier, leading to clearer skies over the inland. That means frosts, some severe are back on the cards after a long period of no frost through inland areas of southern and eastern Australia.


The pattern flipping means the east turning dry, the west turns wet. A big front is closing in on the west coast during the coming 24hrs and will lead to initially and mild night and a mild Sunday with strong and gusty winds. Rain and storms building later in the day, setting the scene for a wet spell along the west and southwest of the nation.


That activity out west may spill over to the central and eastern parts of the nation, with a cold front drawing moisture in from the northern tropics and feeding a weak trough to spread rainfall through the eastern and southeast inland, but who gets what...no one quite knows just yet.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

A dynamic weather system evolving through eastern Australia, sadly timing was not there as well as positioning to bring large rainfall to the eastern and southern inland of Australia but widespread falls have been observed with the system being out of phase during the past few days. Cold air over the southern parts of Australia is moving eastwards during the coming 24 hours. Clearing skies over SA and northern Australia under high pressure. Cloud streaming into the west ahead of a cold front, hinting a change is not too far away.

Cold air rotating around a low that is drifting through Bass Strait is bringing widespread showers, local hail and thunder to the southeast, conditions now easing over the southeast of SA tonight. Showers will increase for parts of central VIC overnight and Sunday, spreading into Gippsland areas, with local hail.

Cloud streaming into WA is the moisture feed coming out of the Indian Ocean and heralds a change approaching the region on Sunday.

The Indian Ocean is certainly providing a great indication of what is to come, this is science before our eyes. More details can be found here on these types of events.

Temperatures - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021

A cold airmass descending over the southeast and southern parts of Australia is in association with a cold pool rotating around the southeast producing showers and hail throughout the region. Fine and milder further north of this cold airmass over northern NSW and southern QLD. Fine and mild to warm in WA with a northerly flow, warm over the north with humidity set to increase.

Cold and wintry through the southeast with widespread showers and hail. It has been a good rainfall event for the coastal areas and dairy country of SW VIC and SE SA with more showers tonight before we dry out during Monday.

Radar - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Trough leaving the east coast with extensive rainfall falling over the sea. A cold airmass is running into the trough and helping to promote that large cloud band offshore, with showers and local hail through the southeast states but conditions are easing over SA this evening with the pressure stabalising and the air drying out.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Rainfall clearing out of the east overnight with a drier day on the way for Sunday. Showers easing over VIC and TAS later Sunday with the east, dry and settled to kick off a new working week. The focus of wet weather drifts over WA with heavy rainfall likely to develop Sunday night and persist into Monday with a large scale front and a slow moving long wave trough over the region. Further fronts are expected to bring more rainfall throughout the coming 10 days.

CMC 00Z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Rainfall similar in spread to GFS with widespread showers or rain developing later in the week for the east. Rainfall for southwest WA with significant falls likely from Sunday with follow up frontal weather moving through, that will bring rainfall chances to southern SA and the southeast from the weekend with moderate falls developing.

GFS 00Z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Widespread rainfall with heavy falls for the southwest with possibly severe weather developing on Sunday and at times through the week. Rain breaking out over the east with moderate to heavy falls over NSW and VIC in tonight's run, but this will chop and change but does align with CMC this evening.

Euro 00Z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Rain clearing the east overnight and in the morning, showers easing over the southeast as per the other model guidance. Rainfall becoming heavy over the southwest from Sunday with multiple fronts to follow with further moderate rainfall at times and cold windy weather. Rainfall breaking out over the inland, favours inland NSW and QLD over VIC.

Model Discussion and analysis


GFS 00Z run - 500mb/Upper air pattern at 18000ft - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021

GFS 00z run - Surface Pressure pattern and rainfall distribution - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021


Sunday 4th of July 2021

Upper low over the southeast with a trough leading that system offshore the east coast being slowed down by a strong upper high over NZ which has been there much of this week. A weak ridge over WA being forced east by a strong long wave trough off the west coast moving east through the day bringing widespread wintry weather later.

You can see the heavy rainfall offshore the east coast on the satellite imagery, it will continue to move east overnight. Showers possibly moderate over central VIC with the passage of a low pressure system, local hail and thunder too. That will ease later as the system moves on by to the east. High pressure keeping inland and central areas dry. Rain developing later about the southwest with a strong and gusty northwest flow.

Monday 5th of July 2021

Strong upper low offshore WA bringing widespread rain and strong winds. A trough clearing through the eastern seaboard with a cold night followed by mostly fine weather for the east. Upper high over NZ starting to shift east. Weak high over the southeast with a broad centre at the surface keeping the southeast and interior portions of the nation fine.

High pressure the dominant force throughout the nation with cold night followed by sunny weather with winds becoming light. A few morning showers over southern VIC should be gone by lunch. Rain and storms overnight into Monday tending to showers over the southwest with hail and thunder later. Rain clearing over inland areas of the SWLD as the lead front falls apart. Fine and seasonal over the north.

Tuesday 6th of July 2021

Weak ridge over the southeast leading to cold nights and more settled sunny weather. Long wave trough and upper low over the southwest remains slow moving with the downstream block still causing the pressure systems to remain slow moving. The zonal flow over the nation is becoming established, but the slack pressure pattern over northern Australia could lead to an increase in humidity.

Large high over the east becoming slow moving as it recentres over NSW, with cold nights and sunny days, with light winds. Settled weather continues further west through SA though warming up in a northwest flow. Showers and windy for the southwest of the nation, though dry for a period over the inland of the SWLD between fronts. A late shower possible about the east coast as winds turn southeasterly. A morning shower over the tropical north coasts.

Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Slow moving long wave with multiple fronts moving through the southwest. A high in the east continuing to move east with a ridge extending back over SA. A zonal flow moving through the guts of the nation keeping interior parts seasonal for this time of year with mostly fine skies.

Another strong cold front to bring rain and strong winds to the west coast extending inland through the day with a biting and squally westerly wind. High pressure over the east starting to move east through the day, but after another cold night with severe frosts over much of inland QLD, NSW and VIC conditions sunny. A few morning showers over the northern tropical coasts and a few showers possible about the northeast of NSW.

Thursday 8th of July 2021

Long wave trough starting to move further east to be over SA later in the day with a lead trough moving into western NSW and QLD later. A ridge in the east moving offshore making way for the next wave of low pressure passing over Australia. Slack pressure pattern over northern Australia continues with humid weather for the coasts.

Showers and winds easing for the southwest of WA briefly with a ridge passing into the central inland. A front and trough coming into SA at this stage loses it's moisture supply so light rainfall developing about coastal areas later. Strong and gusty northerly winds over the southeast elevating temperatures. Winds veer into the east once again over QLD and NSW leading to coastal showers. Cloud may increase over inland QLD with a surface trough developing.

Friday 9th of July 2021

Upper trough and long wave passing through the southeast with the main dynamic forcing heading through inland areas. A ridge over the Tasman Sea moving east. Another strong wave approaching WA later in the day with yet a repeat round of windy showery weather. Fine through the interior with a zonal flow and heights where they should be.

Low develops on the trough over inland NSW producing rain and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls on and west of the divide. A weak surface low over SA producing slow moving showers and maybe a rumble. High pressure moving through central WA moving rapidly east through to be centred over Alice Springs later. A fast moving cold front to bring another burst of rain and strong winds later for southwest WA.

Saturday 10th of July 2021

Upper low over the southeast absorbed into the fast flow pattern taking the wet weather out of the eastern inland and clearing with a weak shortwave ridge passing over. A strong long wave gathering strength offshore WA bringing more unsettled weather. Fine weather over the north with a drier airmass developing under an upper high.

Rain and storms clearing from the eastern inland early as a weak high passes through. A low may form along the trough from NSW and that may be positioned over Bass Strait driving showers and strong winds over VIC. That will clear later. A front passing south of SA will freshen winds. Strong winds over southwest WA with showers increasing later as another front approaches.

Tuesday 13th of July 2021

Strong long wave troughs passing through the southern half with ridging over the northern half of the nation. Classic winter time pattern signals continue in the medium term so wet weather for the south and warm weather and dry weather for the north and east.

Windy with showers over the south with fronts passing through. Dry and settled over the inland and north with high pressure passing through the mid sections. Classic winter weather continues to show up in the mid portions of the month, in line with the SAM trending negative. The wild card to this will be how much moisture gets involved in the pattern from the Indian Ocean.

More weather details coming up on Sunday with a full wrap up during the late morning and afternoon with a few more data sets to process between now and then, hopefully more clarity on that eastern inland system and better rainfall odds showing up for inland areas of SA.

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