• Strong winds and showers for the NSW coast today, as a low continues to move north.

  • Southerly winds easing over the southeast with cloudy skies continuing

  • Warming up over in the west ahead of a strong cold front.

  • Latest details on the major rainfall event unfolding across the country.

Windy night over coastal NSW and eastern VIC with a deep low rotating through the Tasman Sea. There have been showers hanging offshore most of the evening but another burst is expected to move towards the Central and Hunter coastlines during the coming 24 hours bringing moderate rainfall as a trough moves through.

High pressure moving into the southeast is bringing a cloudy day for southern areas, but more sunshine for inland parts of SA, VIC and NSW with those cold winds easing. The weekend looking and feeling pretty good in this part of the world.

A nice dry surge finally pushing through the northern parts of Australia bringing strong winds and high fire dangers to the Kimberly, Top End and western Cape York with a dry airmass moving through.

Warming up out west with the northwest flow developing and strengthening as a front approaches from the west. Strong to gale force winds developing for the southwest tonight with the approach of that front with showers increasing overnight.

But the big talking point is that major rainfall event spreading from northwest to the southeast, impacting most states in some shape or form next week, we will dive into modelling on that in just a moment.

National Satellite Picture - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

A low pressure system over the Tasman driving strong winds and showers for the east cold with a gusty southwest to southerly wind. A cloud band continues to move through northwest Australia with a break over the Pilbara today however more cloud developing tomorrow ahead of a strong cold front. The leading edge of a cold front can be seen approaching the southwest, with high level cloud for now.

Deep low pressure system offshore Sydney, directing strong and gusty southerly winds. Showers have been generally parallel to the coastline this morning but there will be a burst of rain along the coast with the passage of another trough over the NSW coast this morning. Fine further west with partly cloudy skies in a cool southerly.

Temperatures - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

The nation is cool this morning, with a dry cool to cold southerly flow, with that dry surge coming into the northern parts of WA and the NT today, with a fresh southeast wind. Frost patches over parts of inland WA with light winds. Cool over much of the inland with a clear sky.

Radar - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

Showers are moving along the NSW coast this morning, with the batch sitting offshore expected to move over the coast today, especially north of Nowra up to Taree with moderate falls possible in the coming 24hrs. Fine and dry further west.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

Showery over the east coast over the next 36hrs. Showers increasing for the west with a band of rainfall developing over WA during Sunday into Monday with that system still expected to bring a soaking to many areas during next week. A deep low also developing will dictate the performance and spread of the rain band.

GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days 12z Run - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021.

CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days 12z Run - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021.

Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days 12z Run - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021.

ACCESS-G 12z run Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

Model Discussion and Analysis

GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern chart - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

GFS Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution - Valid Saturday 19th of June 2021

Saturday 19th of June 2021

Upper trough offshore the NSW coast driving windy weather and wintry weather to the NSW coast on Saturday. High pressure ridging into the southeast bringing an easing trend into Saturday afternoon. Weak upper low over SA/WA region and a new frontal wave approaching the southwest of the nation. Heights coming down over northern Australia with a dry surge moving through.

Deep low to the west of Lord Howe Island with a gusty southerly wind turning more southeasterly today with showers propelled onshore from this afternoon with moderate falls. High pressure over the southeast tending to ease conditions over the southeast states with inland areas set to see more sunshine. A new cold front over southwest parts of the nation bringing a burst of showers and gusty conditions from later tonight. Settled elsewhere.

Sunday 20th of June 2021

Strong upper ridge over the southeast with a cold night and sunny milder day for the inland of the southeast and east with stable air. A weak trough moving through coastal NSW lifting out later in the day. A strong upper low forming offshore WA bringing a severe weather look to the west coast during the day.

Showers along the NSW coast, heavy at times about central coastal areas, easing during the morning with winds easing. A strong high over the southeast of NSW keeping much of the nation dry and calm with lots of sunshine. A strong cold front and deep low forming offshore the Capes of SW WA bringing a large band of rain and thunderstorms into the region. Cloud increasing throughout WA with rain developing for the northwest coastal areas at night.

Monday 21st of June 2021

Deep upper low over the southwest of WA with very cold air about. Severe weather likely under this feature. A large high over the southeast keeping the weather dry and settled. Upper low and trough lifting off the NSW coast once again, with decreasing wet weather later. Heights coming up over the north with warmer weather developing.

Large cloud band producing rain and storms through WA with moderate falls over the inland and possibly heavy falls near a low pressure system over the southwest. Rain will move into western NT and SA later in the day. A high, slow moving over the southeast keeping a run of fine and mild weather for the eastern states. Showers along the NSW coast could turn heavy at times with a weak upper trough in the region with onshore winds. These should ease later. Fine weather over the Top End with more humidity developing.

Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

Upper low over the east of WA with a severe weather event continuing to unfold for the state. Colder weather moving east and into SA later in the day. A strong upper high over the east, keeping much of the nation dry and calm with temperatures moving above average during the day with a northerly flow aloft. Warm to hot over the Top End.

A broad band of rain moving through central parts of the nation, clearing western interior regions later with moderate falls for the southern NT and SA. Showers with gusty winds, small hail and thunder for the south coast of WA and into SA with a low moving steadily eastwards. Clearing conditions for the west coast under a new pressure ridge. Showers over the east coast with a high pressure system moving further east, bringing moderate onshore winds. Mild to warm over the eastern inland with sunny skies, though high cloud may begin to move east throughout the day.

Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Large scale upper trough and low sitting just west of Elliston bringing widespread wintry weather through southern parts of the nation. Upper high over the east starting to weaken as it moves further east but maintaining stable weather for the eastern states. Warm and becoming more humid over the NT once again. Fine weather over the west under another ridge.

Broad band of rain through SA, starting to move into NSW and VIC with moderate falls possible. Some heavy falls may develop over the northern slopes in VIC with the front moving through. Showers over the east coast in onshore winds. Showers, with strong and gusty southwest to southerly winds wrapping around the western face of the low. High pressure settling in over WA with a cold night over the inland. Showers possibly a storm over the northern Top End with humidity increasing.

Thursday 24th of June 2021

Broad upper low over the southeast bringing wintry weather to the south and southeast. An upper high over the Tasman continuing to move east over NZ. A new high over the southwest of the nation keeping conditions settled out west. Another dry surge moving through the NT during the day will move northwest by nightfall clearing humidity.

Low pressure over western Victoria with scattered showers, local thunderstorms and hail through southern SA and western NSW and VIC. A broad band of rainfall in the warm sector as the trough marches east through QLD, NSW and eastern VIC, with moderate to heavy falls along the Great Dividing Range. Showers in onshore southerly winds for the southern coast of WA and SA will continue. Showers increasing for the northeast Top End and parts of Cape York with a southeast surge developing through the day. Fine out west under high pressure.

Friday 25th of June 2021

Complex upper trough with a sharp trough over the southeast and a deep upper low near western Tasmania continuing the wintry weather for the south and southeast. Upper high over the Tasman becoming more mobile during the day with another ridge over WA moving eastwards keeping conditions more settled for the west and north of the region.

Trough moving into QLD will invigorate the rain band over the region, with moderate to heavy falls and scattered thunderstorms in the more tropical regions of the nation. Showers also developing over the Top End with a slight chance of some thunder. Potential for below average temperatures under thick cloud for both states. Trough over the southeast with showers, small hail and thunder for VIC and TAS. Showers easing for SA later in the day as a ridge begins to move in from the west and the trough lifts out. Fine weather over the west under a high.

Monday 28th of June 2021

Troughing over the east coast with a deep upper low moving east of Tasmania. A high pressure ridge over the Bight keeping things settled for inland areas of the nation with a zonal flow. A strong long wave approaching WA with another round of wintry weather for the west coast. Heights coming up over the northwest of the nation.

Strong cold front racing through the southeast bringing wintry showers, snowfalls and gusty winds to VIC and TAS. High pressure, weak, over SA, controlling the weather and keeping things settled for large parts of the mainland. The next front approaches the west coast with a band of rain and strong winds for the southwest of the nation with a gusty northwest flow developing for the west. Dry season conditions resume for the northern parts of the nation.

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