NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - WEDNESDAY JUNE 9TH 2021

Headlines


  • Bitterly cold airmass with wild weather through the southeast, snow to low levels as expected.

  • Widespread heavy rainfall for southern and eastern VIC.

  • Damaging winds over in southwest WA with another deep low pressure system.

  • Colder than normal for most of Australia this afternoon and set to sweep north tomorrow.

As anticipated and forecast during the past week, a deep low pressure system has formed over NSW, just west of Canberra this morning and is deepening, bringing the threat of wild weather up in VIC and snow levels down over much of NSW with a cold airmass. Near record cold day time maximums have been observed over NSW today for June and those won't be known until morning.


Snow is falling over many areas above 600m today in NSW with that snowfall expected to increase this afternoon, tonight and into Thursday with significant accumulation possible an disruption.


Heavy rainfall and gales in southern VIC on the southern side of the low with a trough anchored over Gippsland through Melbourne is producing severe weather this afternoon.


A separate weather system over in WA is producing rain and strong squally northerly winds over the south and west of the state, with a strong and damaging northwest wind shift possible tonight as the low glances by the southwest Capes.


Cold through much of the nation with a weak ridge splitting the deep lows on either side of the nation. Southeasterly surge is expected over the Top End and through Cape York on Thursday.


National Satellite - Wednesday June 9th 2021 - Valid 330pm EST

Two deepening lows over either side of the nation with a high in between. Severe weather continues to unfold on both sides of the nation with all sorts of weather warnings out in force. Dry over the central and northern states with a southerly surge moving in lowering humidity values later.

A deep low has started to form near Canberra and is directing a cyclonic wrap of heavy rainfall and strong winds into Central and Eastern Victoria today. Flood watches are issued. Heavy showers and a few storms moving into central NSW this afternoon will increase the snowfalls later today into Thursday. Rain is moving offshore with drier air coming on the east coast in westerly winds.

Deep low pressure system over the southwest Indian Ocean bringing gales and heavy rainfall to parts of the west and southwest coasts today. Patchy rainfall and thick cloud moving inland, but is likely to break down as it encounters an upper ridge parked in the east of the state.

Radar

A deep low is bringing widespread showers and storms, falling as snow above 600m in NSW. Areas of rainfall and heavy falls over Central and Gippsland districts extending to the southwest Riverina this afternoon. Blizzards developing over the Alpine areas. Showers easing for western VIC and southeast SA.

Showers and storms in a squally northwest wind over the SWLD with moderate falls. A weak cloud band over the Pilbara and Gascoyne triggering rain and thunder. Light falls generally. Fine through the remainder under a ridge.

Temperatures - 330pm EST.

It is freezing over the south and east with high winds, near record cold temperatures and lots of rainfall about. Over the far north it is near seasonal, the only part of Australia not to be impacted by the cold air racing north for now.

Some of these values are crazy. Near freezing or at freezing over the Northern, Central and Southern Tablelands with snow falling in many locations. Even over the central west plains, down to 5C with rain and sleet falling down to 200m. Warmer out west in the southeasterly flow on the periphery of the low where the sun is out.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

GFS 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday June 9th 2021

CMC 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday June 9th 2021


Model discussion

GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern above our heads - 00z run.

GFS MSLP and Rainfall distribution 00z run.


Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low over NSW driving the severe weather tonight will continue to meander around on Thursday with further wild weather and low level snowfalls. Ridging around the system remaining the dominant force capturing the westerly winds and cutting off this system from being absorbed into the flow pattern. A deep low southeast of Perth will move further away with another wave offshore.

Classic winter spiral over the southeast with heavy rainfall, strong winds, snow down to low levels over central and northern parts of NSW. Rain with moderate to heavy falls back over the Riverina into the CW Plains and through much of Central and Eastern VIC. Dry air keeping parts of SE NSW and the ACT rain free for now. Showers and winds easing over SW WA later in the day as the deep low moves off to the southeast.

Friday June 11th 2021

Deep low lifting offshore but still bringing severe weather risks to parts of southeast Australia, position to be determined at this time. Ridging over SA keeping much of that state dry and into the NT. Colder back in the west with another front approaching later. Blocking pattern over NZ holding.

Showers, some heavy over the southeast of NSW with strong and gusty winds easing later. Damaging surf developing along the South Coast. Showers continuing for Gippsland and developing over eastern TAS. Showers increasing over WA with moderate falls developing. The chance of a thunderstorm in an unstable northwest flow, which will ease during the day. A weak ridge over Alice Springs keeping the rest of the nation dry for now.

Saturday June 12th 2021

Deep low weakening offshore GIppsland but it will still bring some severe weather risk to the far coastal areas of Gippsland and eastern TAS on Saturday morning. Block over NZ holding. Out west another wave of low pressure moving over WA with further inclement weather. Ridge weakening over SA.

Deep low southeast of VIC will produce another period of rain and strong winds for southern and eastern VIC with moderate to heavy falls, some of that extending into SE NSW. Showers turning to rain over eastern TAS with moderate falls. A trough over the Bight beginning to deepen triggering rain and a few storms over inland WA with a few showers following over the west coast. Fine elsewhere under a weak ridge through NSW with cold nights.

Sunday June 13th 2021

Low pressure moving away to the east as the blocking pattern begins to weaken over NZ but holding the low west of there. An upper low moving into SA with cloudy skies. Another weak ridge over WA being pushed along by a strong cold front well to the southwest. Heights about where they should be over northern Australia.

Cloud increasing through SA with scattered showers and maybe some thunder developing as low pressure approaching. An upper trough over QLD may begin to kick off showers or patchy rainfall through the afternoon or evening. A few showers back through SW WA and cloud thickening over the Pilbara again with moisture being drawn in via the jet stream. Showers easing and clearing later from the southeast.

Monday June 14th 2021

Upper low moving through to western NSW with a trough attached bringing another round of cloudy skies. It will help to move the block over NZ along. Another strong cold front surging behind the initial lead trough over the east bringing the next chance of cold weather for southern Australia next week. Ridging building off WA and weakening off TAS.

Patchy rainfall over QLD may increase in response to an upper trough approaching the east. That upper trough may kick off some showers and or patchy rainfall, but moisture is limited for now over western NSW. Another strong cold front coming into southern WA later will bring gales and showers to the south coast. Light rain with thick cloud via the upper level jet stream may break out over the remainder of the SWLD. More humid over the north of the country.

Tuesday June 15th 2021

Deep upper low forming southwest of SA moving east, bringing the next round of strong to gale force winds and colder weather. A trough in the east lifting off the NSW coast. A ridge building back over WA. Another surge of drier air over the northern parts of the nation but sunny skies with elevated fire dangers.

Deep surface low southwest of Adelaide bringing strong to gale force winds and rain through the southern coastal areas, extending north and east later, with a milder day expected for the east in a breezy northwest flow. New high pressure pushing into WA keeping skies clear there. Trough over QLD and NSW lifting out in advance of the stronger feature coming into VIC and NSW later in the day.

Wednesday June 16th 2021

A week from today and the next cut off cold weather event is moving through the southeast with yet a further round of strong winds, heavy showers, low level snow potenital. A new ridge southwest of the nation keeping things settled back over in WA. There is a persistent ridge over the southern ocean which is allowing the cold fronts to emerge and cut off into low pressure.

Surface low near stationary southwest of Adelaide with another centre over VIC bringing rainfall and strong winds to the region. Cold with local hail and thunder too. More moisture moving into the NW of the nation with another cloud band. Fine elsewhere with high pressure ridging through but temperatures still well below average.

The low in the east is forecast to move over NSW during the next day bringing cold wet and windy weather to the south and east, but it is a long way out and this will change.


Need more weather information for your property? Tailored forecast? Short medium or long term? Climate? Let me know karllijnders@weathermatters.org

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