Rain and thunderstorms currently becoming widespread through the tristate area moving south and east.
Becoming cooler with showers of coastal SA.
Warmer weather in QLD and the NT ahead of a dry surge
Sunny over WA with stable air in place.
Rain and thunderstorms have continued to rumble across parts of western NSW and southwest QLD in particular on Wednesday, with a few clusters back in eastern SA. The weather is beginning to cloud over central and eastern NSW and QLD with rain and thunderstorms slowly advancing eastwards with a trough.
In the wake of the upper low and trough, a colder southerly shift has developed over coastal SA with showers developing for coastal areas but mainly light falls expected.
Warmer weather in advance of the trough over QLD and northern NSW is setting the stage for thunderstorms to develop with the upper low bringing colder unstable air into this airmass causing a clash where thunderstorms can erupt. Hot over NT ahead of a dry surge this weekend.
Sunny and stable over the west, colder nights to continue with a marginal risk of frost developing over inland areas.
National Satellite - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021 3pm EST.
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms building through western NSW and southwest QLD along a trough bringing moderate rainfall on Wednesday. It is progressing eastwards tonight. Cloud back over SA with a few tall showers and one or two thunderstorms along the gulf coasts may contain small hail. Dry weather elsewhere, though low cloud bringing light showers to the QLD coast and high cloud streaming into WA is fair weather under a strong ridge, but that moisture source is deeper offshore.
A closer look at the upper trough responding to the deeper moisture profile east over NSW and QLD, you can see the unstable air lifting the moisture into showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and a rain band is now starting to gather pace in development this evening. This will spread south and east through the inland over the coming 24hrs.
Thunderstorms are expected to be quite active over the east during Thursday and so pay attention to forecasts on Thursday with a low end severe weather threat from these storms with damaging winds the main conern.
Thunderstorm Forecast - Thursday June 3rd 2021.
80% 8/10 chance of seeing a thunderstorm develop within 25km of a given point during Wednesday. The risk tapers down 10% down the colour wheel where yellow is 50% and white is 10%.
Damaging Winds Risk - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.
Low to moderate risk of damaging winds if thunderstorms develop within 25km of a given point. Low is the lighter shading and the deeper shading is the moderate zone.
Radar showing clusters of showers and thunderstorms throughout the tristate region with an area of rain over southwestern NSW and northern VIC. The radar coverage is below standard through this region so there is a lot more falling out there than what is being shown here. The activity is progressive as it moves east and is becoming more widespread.
Radar as at 3pm EST Wednesday 2nd of June 2021.
Temperatures are very warm and above normal over northeastern parts of the country stretching through QLD and into the NT with a warm northwest flow, and higher humidity values keeping the temperatures up overnight. Cooler under where rainfall and clouds are currently placed. Note the cooler air back in the southwest after a cooler start, they will be into the 20s tomorrow through much of WA. Near seasonal elsewhere.
Temperatures as at 3pm EST - Valid Wednesday June 2nd 2021.
Note the very much above average temperatures at mid afternoon over northern Australia extending back through QLD with a warm northwest flow ahead of the trough over the southeast and central parts of the country. Temperatures will start to cool down over southern areas with rain expected to break out tonight.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 2nd of June 2021.
Rainfall with two rainfall events over the east and one event very late in the period out west with moderate falls and a large amount of tropical moisture sitting offshore over the Indian.
GFS 00z run - Next 10 days - Valid Wednesday June 2nd 2021.
CMC 00z run - Next 10 days - Valid Wednesday June 2nd 2021.
Euro 00z run - Next 10 days - Valid Wednesday June 2nd 2021.
Moisture running through the atmosphere over the coming 2 weeks is going to be a big feature of how much rainfall does indeed verify in these forecasts. Current guidance suggests that multiple large scale waves will impact the southern half of the nation bringing up the chance of rainfall at regular intervals for the southern states. How much drifts over central and eastern areas over the course of the weeks remains to be seen, but the drier signal I had for the month of June about 4-5 weeks ago has now eased drastically.
GFS 18z run - Precipitable Water Values for the coming 2 weeks. Valid Wednesday June 2nd 2021.
Note the 4 waves passing over Australia with the Indian Ocean playing a big part at the moment.
Model Analysis and Discussion for the coming 10 days.
GFS 00z run 500mb/18000ft flow pattern showing the movement of weather over our head
GFS 00Z run MSLP and rainfall distribution underneath the upper air pattern
Thursday June 3rd 2021.
Upper low moves out of SA into western NSW during Thursday morning with rain and thunderstorms in the warmer sector to the north and east of this feature. A weak shortwave passing over TAS and VIC may produce a few showers. Ridging back over WA is strengthening over the region more settled weather. Heights above average over QLD and NT will see above average temperatures continue across the region.
Rain and thunderstorms progressing from western parts of QLD and NSW through the central and eastern parts of the state with scattered moderate falls expected, especially near the QLD/NSW border and along the western slopes. A few showers over eastern VIC with the tail of the trough and tip of the weak front passing over TAS. Otherwise it is complication free elsewhere with high pressure dominating.
Friday June 4th 2021
Upper low lifts offshore with the help of a cold front but a surface low may form along the front as it passes off the NSW coast bringing a period of windy weather. A stronger cold front passes over southeast Australia with colder weather and wet weather. Drier and cooler air filtering through QLD and into the NT from Friday. Ridging out west keeping things nice and dry with light winds.
Chance of a morning shower about the Daly district of the NT early on in the day with increased moisture in the air. Showers clearing the QLD and NSW coast early in the day but they may return in the evening with a southerly shift. Showers increasing over the southeast with the passage of a front with moderate falls for TAS and southwest VIC and southeast SA. Dry over the west though cloud periods over the Pilbara and Gascoyne with moisture offshore.
Saturday June 5th 2021
One wave on by from the southeast early in the day but another front coming through later in the day, racing through the southern ocean. A large ridge over the west keeping things settled as fronts graze the southern coast and begin to peak over the southeast. Heights still below normal over QLD and reducing over the NT will see temperatures fall back towards normal values.
Showers clearing from the southeast during Saturday afternoon though redeveloping later in the day with a new cold front. Fresh to strong northwest winds developing ahead of the front. The ridge will begin to sink south over southern states bringing settled and warm weather in that northerly flow. Showers clearing off the NSW coast behind that fast moving front. Otherwise cloudy skies over northwest WA may produce a little patchy rainfall. Evening showers for southern WA with a weak front passing through.
Sunday June 6th 2021
That front racing through the Great Australian Bight on Saturday races over south-east Australia with another burst of showers and strong winds. Heights coming down over northern Australia with another dry surge moving through. Ridging over the south of the nation beginning to break down, in advance of a strong cold front and long wave trough south of WA that is roaring north early next week.
The front passing through the southeast will bring middle level cloud and patchy rainfall through VIC but better rainfall over western and northern TAS. Another front will bring showers to southern WA later in the day, with moderate falls for the far southwest. Moisture pooling off the northwest will bring cloud into the Pilbara up to the Kimberly but likely dry for now with temperatures near seasonal away from cloud. Cooler over the north with falling temperatures and dry air returning briefly.
Monday June 7th 2021
Upper high starting to move to the east, digging through the eastern inland bringing fine and mild weather. That ridge making way for a strong long wave trough to rise from the southern ocean being propelled by a new high off WA. Cloud increasing along the southern coastline where a large thermal gradient will be in place, may see a broad area of rainfall develop along the frontal boundary. Settled elsewhere.
Winds strengthening along the south coast of Australia with a warm day for much of SA, VIC and NSW with a northwest flow. Cold air raging up from the southern ocean will run into this warm air, and the modest moisture that is in play will start to see rain develop along the battle zone. Fine weather in the east and north under a ridge and over in the southwest under a new strong ridge. Cloud still flirting with the NW coast but dry. A few showers possible over the eastern coast of the NT and the QLD coast.
Tuesday June 8th 2021
Long wave trough starting to cut off into an upper low with a pool of cold air coming onshore the SA coast with widespread showers and areas of rain and thunderstorms in the warm sector to the north and east of the system. Strong to gale force northwest wind between the high and the low will keep the southeast warm ahead of the rain developing. Fine over the west under a strong ridge and heights coming down over northern Australia but temperatures near seasonal.
Widespread rainfall developing just offshore the SA coast during the morning will move onshore later in the day with strong to gale force northwest winds wrapping around a high pressure system to the east and a low forming south of the nation. Easterly winds bringing showers to the east coast of FNQ and the Top End. Cloud and patchy rainfall developing just offshore the northwest coast of Australia, while it will be cold about the southeast coast of WA with showery periods.
Wednesday June 9th 2021
Deep upper low over SA moving east slowly with a high pressure ridge on the eastern seaboard keeping things nice and dry as well as warm. A strong ridge over WA seeing conditions ease over the south coast. Heights about normal elsewhere.
A deep surface low over Port Augusta with a trailing front with widespread rain and thunderstorms pushing through QLD, NSW and VIC, with locally heavy falls of rainfall. Showers and storms rotating over SE SA near the centre of circulation with local hail and wind squalls. Severe thunderstorms are possible in the eastern inland. Showers developing about the east coast in unstable northeast winds. Rain just offshore the west coast will move east to bring a burst of rain and strong winds to WA.
Thursday June 10th 2021
Deep upper low over SA moving slowly east continuing to push bands of rain and thunderstorms over the east and south with severe weather potential. Ridging lift off the east coast and moving away from SW WA with conditions becoming unsettled in the west. Heights near average over the north with seasonal temperatures.
A deep low slowly moving towards the NSW border bringing showers and storms across southeast SA, western NSW and VIC with local hail. A slow moving band of rain and thunderstorms over central and eastern QLD, NSW and VIC with moderate to heavy falls moving east. Rain with heavy falls developing off the west coast of WA moving onshore near a developing deep low offshore. Fine elsewhere with seasonal weather
Friday June 11th 2021
Deep upper low moving at a snail's pace over the west of NSW but beginning to weaken. The ridge in the Tasman blocking the passage of this system, meaning multiple days of severe weather possible under this scenario over the southeast and east of the nation. Another deep low on approach to the west coast, with heights generally below average over much of the nation, supporting a cooler than normal look in a week's time.
A surface low beginning to weaken over land north of Mildura with widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing to rotate around the centre of circulation. Rain and thunderstorms will clear the east coast as the trough gets a shove east. Showers easing over SA through the day. The focus of wild weather shifts back to WA with rain and thunderstorms with gales developing with the next low pressure system. A moisture in feed could also see a large cloud band be drawn in from the Indian Ocean bringing inland rainfall.
Saturday June 12th 2021.
By the end of the period the low weakens and move southeast away from the mainland with high pressure dominating the Tasman forcing the system south as the new low out west begins to piggy back the lead feature. Heights coming up over northern Australia bringing temperature back to seasonal though humid. Wild weather will continue out west.
Widespread rain continuing through the inland from WA through SA and the NT into the east ahead of a front that will be pushing through the Bight region later in the day. Showers with local hail and thunder for the southwest of WA with gales continuing and large seas. Clearing briefly over NSW and VIC with a weak ridge later in the day after morning rain about southern VIC and rain will ease over TAS later. Fine elsewhere, though a few light showers possible about QLD central coast.
Temperature Anomalies will be running high in this high amplitude pattern. Expect a nice warm up next week over southern parts of Australia in strong and gusty northwest winds but then a dramatic shift in conditions are anticipated mid next week with southerly winds dragging up polar air into the region.
Temperature anomalies - GFS 18z run - Monday 7th June 2021 - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021.
Temperature anomalies - GFS 18z run - Wednesday 9th June 2021 - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021.
Lets compare the GFS run with the Euro for next week to see if they are becoming more aligned in the forecast packages with regards to the large scale low pressure area mid next week and the follow up rainfall potential for WA.
Euro 00z run - Monday 7th of June 2021 - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern.
Similar to GFS the cold front begins surge north later Sunday through Monday with significant wind and cloud cover building over the south of the nation.
Euro 00z run - Tuesday 8th of June 2021 - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern.
Large long wave trough bringing widespread rain and gales to the east with ridging on both sides, very similar to GFS with a high amplitude pattern develoiping.
Euro 00z run - Wednesday 9th of June 2021 - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern.
Deep upper low forms over NSW with a large area of rain and thunderstorms in the warm sector over NSW and QLD, but this position would push the rain off the east coast quicker and keep the showers more frequent and widespread through SA and VIC.
Euro 00z run - Thursday 10th of June 2021 - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern.
Deep low washes out through to a large scale trough over VIC, with widespread rain and thunderstorms over SA and VIC with showers hail and thunder for southern and central NSW. Snowfalls look better on this later run today, compared to GFS.
Rainfall for the east under the current guide will chop and change, but many areas could see a month's worth of rainfall over the coming week.
Euro 00z run - Monday 7th of June 2021 - Rainfall next 10 days.
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