NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - WEDNESDAY JUNE 16TH 2021

Headlines


  • Widespread showers and a few storms through inland QLD, NSW and VIC tonight with a cold front moving east.

  • Colder with showers and moderate falls near a low over southwest VIC.

  • Another burst of showers likely to develop Friday for the southeast with more cold air.

  • Fine weather over the west and north with dry air.

A cloudy and colder day through the southeast with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous as a trough and cold front moves into a bit more moisture left over from the easterly wind regime that has been underway over recent days. Moderate falls are underway.


Colder air with showers and some coastal thunder with a low pressure system moving through southeast SA into southwest VIC this afternoon.


Another cold burst of showery weather is expected to come in from the south later Thursday into Friday with another band of showers and or areas of rainfall with potentially moderate falls through southeast SA.


Fine weather over the west and north, with a little more humidity over the NT developing during the coming days and warming up in WA with a northwest flow developing as high pressure moves east.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

A large cloud band has formed over the Indian Ocean bringing light patchy rainfall to far northwest WA. A deep low southeast of Adelaide rotating through the Wimmera is bringing widespread showers and moderate falls. Showers and thunderstorms are breaking out in the warm sector along a trough bringing moderate falls. Another cold front is approaching the southern Bight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with areas of moderate rainfall continuing to rotate around a low pressure system over the Wimmera in Victoria. The showers and thunderstorms will proceed further east in an organised batch that will translate towards the coastal fringe later tonight.

A large cloud band has formed over the Indian Ocean with widespread light patchy rainfall offshore, some of that is moving over the land but no recorded rainfall yet, but this is a sign of what is to come over the next week with this moisture being used ahead of a large cold front that will move through the SWLD of WA.

Radar - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from central QLD through NSW down into northeast VIC with some storms gusty. New surface based convection has kicked off further thunderstorm activity over the Riverina and Central West, some of these may turn severe with damaging winds and large hail this evening. Showers over the southeast of SA moving into western VIC.

Temperatures - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

A warm to hot day over the inland of the NT into QLD with some values getting into the mid 30s. Milder back through WA with a southerly flow over the inland but pleasant skies are being observed through the west. Over the east, showery through parts of SA with a cold low sitting through western VIC.

That low has a trough attached over it's northern and eastern flank producing a temperature clash where showers and thunderstorms are breaking out.

National Rainfall Picture - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

A large scale rainfall event from the northwest of the nation will be absorbed into a frontal passage next week bringing widespread light to moderate rainfall over much of the nation, bar the norther 2/3rds of the NT.

GFS Rainfall 00z run - 10 Days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

CMC Rainfall 00z run - 10 Days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Euro Rainfall 00z run - 10 Days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021


Model Analysis and Discussion

GFS 00z Run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

GFS 00z Run - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution.


Thursday 16th of June 2021

Complex upper low bringing wintry weather to the east with showers and cold weather developing over much of the region. Another burst of colder air moving north through the eastern Bight will cross into SA later in the day. Ridging over the north sending humidity values higher throughout the region.

Widespread showers and local thunder through QLD and NSW will contract east during Thursday and clear with a developing low forming offshore. Cold through the southeast. Another strong pulse of cold air racing north towards SA, showers increasing and tending to rain at night. Thick cloud over the NW of WA with light rainfall possible. Otherwise warmer over in the west and more humid over the northern states with morning showers possible.

Friday 17th of June 2021

Broad upper low with a trough over the east of NSW with a cold airmass. Ridging over WA with sunny skies. An upper low over WA will remain near inactive for now but thick cloud could develop as a consequence. Heights remaining above normal over the north.

Deepening low offshore the NSW coast will drive showers and strong winds along the NSW and VIC coast with cold air in place. Showers continuing for SA but will begin to ease later as a high moves closer in from the west. A trough through NSW will lift out but bring colder weather through most of the eastern inland. Cloudy skies over much of WA with a little light rainfall possible. High pressure bringing warmer weather into the southwest.

Saturday 18th of June 2021

Upper low over the Tasman moving further eastwards with a trough lifting out of the QLD and NSW border region. Upper low over inland WA remaining a little inactive. High pressure ridging over much of the south of the country bringing settled weather after cold starts.

Deep low rotating through the Tasman Sea bringing gusty winds and showers to the east coast with a cold airmass. Upper trough over WA may begin to spread some rainfall through the outback but mostly light. A cold front approaching the southwest will bring a gusty northwest wind flow to WA lifting temperatures, but on the eastern flank of the high, it will remain cold and cloudy over the southeastern states.

Sunday 19th of June 2021

Broad troughing through the mid section of the nation bringing cloudy skies and some light and patchy rainfall. High pressure over the southeast keeping the skies settled but more sunshine developing. A cold front will approach and cross southwest WA later in the day.

Low pressure in the Tasman moving away. Showers will continue for the east coast but the falls will become lighter and more scattered. A high over the east leading to cold starts but sunny days with light winds. A strong cold front is approaching the southwest of the nation bringing a burst of strong winds and showers, areas of rain and thunderstorms later in the day along with colder shift at night. Less humid over the northern parts of Australia with a new southeasterly surge.

Monday 20th of June 2021

Deep upper low is coming ashore WA with severe weather potential. A strong ridge smack bang over Victoria leading to cold nights but gorgeous settled weather for winter. Troughing lifting off the east coast with the weather improving. Dry season weather continues over the northern parts of Australia.

Strong cold front with a band of rain and thunderstorms moving through the west of the nation. This particular run has disconnected the moisture coming in from the northwest but I am not buying that. Widespread cloud and strong northerly winds developing for western SA. Showers clearing the coastal portions of NSW with another cold night and sunny weather for much of the eastern and central inland.

Tuesday 21st of June 2021

Deep upper low slowly tracking towards the east of WA with a severe weather risk. Strong upper high moving over the southeast with more fine and settled weather for now. Upper low offshore QLD may cause the showers to increase overnight into Tuesday. Heights coming up over northern parts of the nation.

A large cloud band with rain areas through the outback of WA with showers and thunderstorms along a cold front moving through eastern WA moving into SA later in the day. A strong southerly flow easing off the east coast meaning the showers will decrease, though some morning thunder is possible about SEQLD. Warm and sunny after a cold start over the southeast with a light wind tending northwesterly.

Wednesday 22nd of June 2021

Upper low weakening over the Bight but a strong cold front attached will drive strong winds and showery weather over the south. A high pressure ridge will move over the Tasman Sea with settled weather continuing. Heights about normal elsewhere but below average temperatures may be achieved with a lot of cloud across the country.

Showers and areas of rain moving into SA with a gusty northwest to westerly flow moving east. Showers along the east coast in onshore easterly winds will continue mainly morning and night. High pressure over the east causing those showers will continue to drift eastwards. A weak high over central WA may form but that is low confidence.

Saturday 25th of June 2021

Heights below normal over the south of the nation with a broad zonal flow attached. Waves embedded in the flow will drive showery weather along the southern states. Heights coming up over northern Australia with seasonal dry season weather.

A series of cold fronts or wave train over the southern parts of the nation with showery weather moving fast through the southern states. High pressure anchored over the mid latitudes of the nation will keep the inland dry for now, but we have seen other looks where rain has been coming back through the jet stream. But the signal for frontal weather and showery weather over the south continues to be a theme in the medium term.

Need more weather information? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for more details.

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