NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - WEDNESDAY 23RD OF JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Large rain band a few storms moving through the eastern and southern inland this evening, with moderate rainfall becoming widespread.

  • A cold low pressure system rolling through the southeast of SA and southwest VIC bringing showers, small hail and thunderstorms on Thursday with some moderate falls possible.

  • Humid over the NT with scattered morning showers and some possible thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

  • Warming up over the west.

A large cloud band is currently working its way through the eastern and southern inland producing moderate rainfall. Some locations out through northern VIC between 10-25mm so far today and up to 15mm through locations in western NSW. The rain expected to become more widespread tonight with thunderstorms in QLD also triggering another band of rainfall for northern NSW and southern QLD on Thursday.


A cold airmass circulating around a low pressure system over the southeast, is expected to bring widespread showers, small hail and thunderstorms. Moderate to heavy falls are possible about the southeast districts of SA and western VIC as the system moves through. Showers increasing over the remainder of VIC with small hail and snowfalls developing down to 1300m later in the day.


Humidity values are well and truly above normal over the NT, with build up conditions in place. Scattered morning showers on Thursday along the coast, with a few showers and thunderstorms developing for inland areas by afternoon but they will be random and no one can tell you who will get what and when. Just know they will be about.


Warming up over in the west under a large high, drying out the atmosphere and clearing the showers off the south coast later. A cold night is expected under clear skies with the high ridging through the inland, but severe frosts are unlikely.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021.

Deep trough and upper low with a surface low southwest of Adelaide producing widespread rainfall and thunderstorms over the east. Widespread showers to the southwest of Adelaide will move towards the coast and a wet Thursday can be expected. Fine and dry over the west under high pressure. Cloud thick over the east coast but an upper high is keeping things dry and stable.

Rain beginning to increase from northeast SA through northwest NSW and into the Riverina with rainfall rates expected to increase overnight into Thursday before heavy falls become confined to the southeast third of NSW. Dry weather over the divide on the coastal plains with rain shadowing expected. Fine and clearer over the northeast for now, but cloud thickening.

Thunderstorms have broken out over eastern NT and western QLD with a trough in the region, with damaging winds possible in the elevated storms. The storms will flatten out into a rain band over the southwest and south of QLD and into northern NSW overnight and for Thursday with pockets of moderate falls.

Deep low over the bight is textbook and expected to bring a wet and stormy day to the southeast on Thursday with moderate to heavy falls for parts of SE SA and SW VIC with small hail and gusty winds expected. Back over WA it is dry with cold southerly winds easing.

Temperatures - Valid 5pm EST Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Warm weather over the north will well above average temperatures and humidity values, more like September weather. The warmth being drawn southeast ahead of a trough helping to produce instability and thunderstorm activity near a trough. Colder back through the south with a low pressure system bringing colder southwest winds into SA and WA. Mild over the east though cloudy and cooler under rainfall.

There is a closer look at the temperature gradient. 15C at Moomba but near 30C 500km up the road where the skies are clearer. More thunderstorms will develop in this zone overnight, elevated and gusty conditions are possible. (Refer to thunderstorm forecasts today)

Radar - Valid 5pm EST Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Widespread rainfall along a trough can be seen from the Simpson Desert down through to NE VIC with moderate falls developing. Thunderstorms also active within this band. A large swirl southwest of Adelaide is a cold core low which is driving showers throughout the region today and tonight with a wet day tomorrow.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days- Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Rainfall continuing over the east tonight and through to Friday with moderate falls. Heavy falls over the Alpine areas. A new chart will be issued later this evening.

GFS Rainfall 00z run - Next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

CMC Rainfall 00z run - Next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Euro Rainfall 00z run - Next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Model Discussion and Analysis - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021


GFS 00z run - 500mb/flow pattern at 18000ft above our heads

GFS 00z run - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution


Thursday 24th of June 2021

Deep upper low starting to weaken over the southeast coast of SA during the day but wintry weather with moderate to heavy rainfall expected to rotate around this feature. Upper high moving out of the east with a trough advancing east. Upper high moving back through the southwest of the nation.

Widespread rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday with moderate to heavy falls about the southeast of the nation. Some locations could see a months worth of rainfall once again. Cold with showers through SA and VIC with moderate to heavy falls in parts exposed to the southwest flow. Showers and storms tracking through QLD advancing towards the east later. Morning showers and afternoon thunderstorms over the north of the NT.

Friday 25th of June 2021

Deep low opening up into an upper trough with wintry weather continuing. Upper high over the Tasman and another moving into the southwest of WA. Upper heights coming down over the Top End but unstable with the tail of a trough grazing the region.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms advancing eastwards with moderate falls on the western slopes. A rain shadow may keep the coast dry along the the northern rivers of NSW.

Showers and small hail for the southeast of SA with gusty winds and a cold airmass moving eastwards. Rain easing over Central and Gippsland regions of VIC as the low begins to move away to the southeast. A few morning showers and afternoon thunder over the NT and fine over WA with temperatures warming up.

Saturday 26th of June 2021

Upper trough weakening over the east but providing instability for patchy rain and showers over the east and cooler weather. Upper high still firm over NZ and a ridge moving in from WA with a flat centre developing over SA later. Shortwave south of TAS moving through the southeast later.

Upper trough bringing patchy rain and showers to eastern QLD with onshore winds also producing shower. Showers easing over the southeast, but redeveloping with another front later. Fine weather returning to large parts of Australia with a high taking full control. That high will clear out the humidity of the northern parts of Australia. Warm and windy over WA with cloud increasing over the southwest later.

Sunday 27th of June 2021

Shortwave passing to the southeast of Tasmania moving a front into the Tasman and knocking out the upper high over the region. Weak trough hanging on over QLD. High pressure building in and strengthening over the southeast, making way for another strong long wave moving in over.

Showers easing over the southeast with a trough moving out to the east. A trough over QLD lifting offshore with patchy rainfall easing later. Fine weather through much of the inland with heights well above average and a dry airmass. Fine and dry season conditions return to the north. Showers increasing over the southwest of the nation with a new wave of low pressure on the approach.

Monday 28th of June 2021

Strong front passing through SWLD of WA marching east through the day, but will be deflected southeast by a strong upper high over the southeast keeping conditions dry. A strong front moving over NZ moving the block further east. Heights coming up over the NT with a 588 upper high keeping things stable.

Rain and thunderstorms over in WA beginning to break down over the inland of the SWLD as the front slides to the SE. Moderate to heavy falls are possible about coastal areas of the west coast. Otherwise showers clearing from the QLD coast. Maybe a shower about the central NSW coast with light onshore winds. High pressure dominating elsewhere, leading to cold nights and sunny days with a warmer flow for SA.

Tuesday 29th of June 2021

Strong upper high beginning to move east into the Tasman bringing a mild airmass to the south and east of the nation. Another long wave trough pushing through the southwest of the nation with a strong front. A weakening front passing through western SA but sliding offshore.

Rain and strong winds for the southwest with a cold to very cold airmass approaching. A 534 thickness could bring late snow to the Stirling Ranges again. Showers developing for western parts of WA with a cloud band and moisture infeed moving in. Showers developing along the east coast in onshore easterly winds but falls light. Showers developing over the north of the NT with an easterly wave. Fine and mild with strong winds developing in the southeast.

Wednesday 30th of June 2021

Strong upper high moving towards NZ with a flat ridge extending back over the NT. A front decaying over the Bight but bringing showers and windy weather to the south coast. A weak ridge over WA in a zonal flow. Fine weather over the east under a ridge, but onshore winds for the coast.

Patchy rainfall over northwest parts of the nation with another cloud band trying to organise itself but may be out of phase with this frontal passage. Showers and humidity increasing for the NT and QLD. Showers continue along the east coast in onshore winds. Showers increasing for SA and VIC later with a gusty northwest wind developing. Fine over NSW and inland QLD with above average temperatures.

Saturday 3rd of July 2021

A pool of upper lows over the southeast bringing unsettled weather. A zonal flow over the nation with heights about where they should be. Dry season weather over the north of the nation with a southeast flow. Fine weather over the west coast and east coast under ridging. A trough over the northwest may bring a cloud band towards the northwest of the nation.

Rain developing perhaps over the northwest of the nation with another impulse of tropical moisture with a trough nearby. Fine weather for large parts of the nation under a surface high. A front with a cold pool bringing showers and small hail to the southeast but not overly wintry. Fine in the east. BUT AS ALWAUS THIS WILL CHANGE, SIGNALS THAT REMAIN FIRM, THE NORTHWEST CLOUD BAND.


Need more weather information? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org or head over to the shop to see what I can provide you.

0 views0 comments