NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - TUESDAY 6TH OF JULY 2021

Headlines


  • Cold front is approaching the southwest of the nation today providing the only significant wet weather across the nation. The chance of thunderstorms looks fairly high this evening with small hail.

  • It has been cold and persistently cloudy over parts of the eastern and southeast inland with a high keepings stable but trapping fog and low cloud for many today.

  • Sunny and calm elsewhere with high pressure over the coming days.

  • The next rain event for the east to develop later Thursday now and clear out by Friday afternoon. The wet and windy weather developing through southern Australia from Sunday, increasing from Tuesday next week.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Fairly settled for much of the nation today with clear skies over the vast majority of the communities today. A broad long wave trough with embedded fronts continues to rotate through WA with the next system starting to approach this evening. High cloud with the remains of the first from that brought extensive rain to WA is clearing offshore QLD. Extensive low cloud and fog over the inland of NSW and northern VIC starting to break up right before we enter the night.

The next major cold front is approaching WA with strengthening westerly winds and cold air on the way. A band of moderate rainfall with local thunder and squalls will move through tonight with frequent showers to follow with small hail and further thunderstorms possible and persisting into Wednesday.

Thick low cloud has been stubborn to lift today through the southern inland of NSW and throughout northern VIC. Temperatures well below average today with lunchtime temperatures struggling to get above 5C in many locations. A cold night is on the way with a possible freeze once again for parts of the SE of NSW.

Temperatures - Valid 5pm EST Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Seasonal weather over the north and northwest with a dry airmass. Over the central portions the temperatures despite the sunshine trending more below average. Very cool for this time of year over the southeast with thick cloud for much of today with the cloud breaking later today. Windy and becoming colder over the west with a high wind chill.

These are temperatures at 2pm today and you can see where the sun poked through earlier the day was not too bad, but many areas in the single figures for much of today. To compare, it was warmer in Hobart than the southern inland mainland today!

Radar - Valid 5pm EST Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

A front is sitting offshore but is rapidly on the approach. Showers have been about today for the west coast with those showers increasing tonight with a band of rain later this evening, with moderate to heavy rain, squalls hail and thunder possible and that will persist into tomorrow.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Rainfall breaking out over the northern inland of NSW and southern QLD will be the last of the rainfall for this part of the world for a while. The main westerly wind regime keeping WA wet and that will spread across the nation next week with rainfall increasing from Sunday and again on Tuesday over SA and through VIC and TAS. The rain will arrive in the southeast inland during Tuesday onwards. Snowfalls developing mid next week.


00z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Rainfall is increasing every run at the moment with the GFS. Showing that initial system over the eastern inland with moderate to heavy falls possible over the northern inland of NSW. The wet weather over the southwest persists over the coming 10 days, then finally that sweeps through SA and into VIC/TAS/NSW from Tuesday with increasing signals for moderate falls developing with a rain band.

00z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Numbers flattening out a bit over the northern inland of NSW and southern QLD with the low pressure trough, that looks to be the last inland rainfall event for this region for a while. Showers increasing over the southern states, I still think that this model is a little too dry for the southern coast of SA and through the east, and I am still siding with GFS, but will monitor trends.


00z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

I still think the model has got two elements about right which is the rainfall over the northern inland of NSW and into southern QLD and the wet weather over the southwest persisting for the coming 10 days, in line with GFS picking up the baroclinic cloud band that may develop on the temperature gradient that sets up next week over the inland from WA through SA.

Model discussion and analysis - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.


00z GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern

00z GFS Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution



Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Strong long wave we can see through the southwest with another strong front pushing through tonight and through to the east on Wednesday with wintry weather continuing. Over the remainder of the nation, high pressure in full control with settled conditions, and cold nights, foggy starts and sunny afternoons where the fog lifts.

Widespread showers, hail and thunder with gusty conditions through the southwest of the nation. High pressure over the southeast with cold nights and sunny days, with light winds. Perfect recipe for fog to persist about parts of the southeastern inland. Onshore winds may bring a shower to parts of the QLD coast but otherwise seasonal weather for most locations.

Thursday 8th of July 2021

Strong upper trough moving through to SA with a cold airmass moving east through WA. Upper ridge over the east keeping the bulk of the nation mostly dry, but the approach of a trough through the western inland of NSW and QLD, will see that trough link into moisture and cloud to increase later.

A cold front moving through southern SA with a few showers and windy weather. A warmer day ahead of that front through the southeast with a northerly flow. Fine for the most part over the east but the surface trough that is sitting over western QLD will dip into NSW and tap into moisture and see rain develop later in the day. Cloudy with a few showers about sections of the east coast. A southwest flow over WA beginning to moderate with a high pressure ridge passing over the inland.

Friday 9th of July 2021

Upper trough combining with a surface trough to produce a cold rain through the eastern inland. A weakening front sliding south of the mainland with another strong long wave trough approaching WA with a burst of wintry weather to come. Upper ridge moving away from the east.

A large mass of rain breaks out over southern inland QLD and northern NSW with the bulk of the heavier falls for NSW with local thunderstorms increasing the risk of a months worth of rainfall. Lighter falls extending into the central inland but cloudy and dry for the remainder. Weak front may bring a few showers to the southern coast of SA and into the southeast later. Showers and winds increasing over southwest WA with another strong cold front on the approach. Fine and seasonal elsewhere.

Saturday 10th of July 2021

Strong upper trough passing over WA with an upper low offshore. A ridge strengthening over central parts of the nation, helping to knock the eastern inland low out to sea. Fine over the north with a upper ridge firming.

Rain and storms spreading through WA with moderate falls. Showers with hail and thunder to follow with gales and high wind chill. A ridge clearing the eastern inland and keeping the weakening fronts offshore and breaking them down over the southeast. Fine weather over the north though a tad more humid wit above average temperatures developing.

Sunday 11th of July 2021

Ridging passing over the southeast with a stable airmass. Upper high over the northern parts of the nation with above average temperatures continuing. Long wave trough weakening into a shortwave south of SA but a follow up long wave approaching WA with another round of wet and windy weather later. Fine through much of the inland with seasonal temperatures under the ridge.

High pressure ridging through the southern inland of Australia, but it is mobile and being dragged along by the westerly conveyor belt to the south. The frontal systems coming out of WA will continue to slide away to the southeast with the long wave parked offshore WA through the weekend. Though the weakening front coming into SA may produce a bit more shower activity for the southern and southeast parts before tracking into TAS and VIC.

That front then brings the rainfall through the southeast, with light falls. A weak southeast flow may keep the showers going through Sunday afternoon along the east coast, but the main weather action associated with yet another strong cold front passing over the southwest of the nation with a severe weather risk.

Monday 12th of July 2021

Weak front passes south of VIC and over Tasmania, but another stonking long wave coming into the west will bring more severe weather risks to WA. Upper ridge over the NT with a ridge extending south through SA will keep much of the inland dry with above average temperatures over the NT and northwest WA.

A cloud band may develop ahead of the major front bringing rain and gales to the west and southwest of the nation. A weakening front, possibly a warm front over the southeast may trigger cloud, windy weather and patchy rainfall. Fine over NSW and QLD with a ridge over the region and the above average temperatures continue for the NT.

Tuesday 13th of July 2021

The largest long wave of the season looks set to approach the Bight waters during Tuesday with wintry weather over the west continuing with severe weather potential. A weak ridge still anchored over central and eastern Australia with temperatures coming down over the NT with the upper high breaking down.

Continuing with gales and showers for the west coast of Australia with severe winter weather possible. A cloud band developing through WA, the boundary between the colder air to the south and warm air over WA, that may break out into areas of rainfall through interior regions if the moisture is sufficient. Showers continuing through SA and into VIC with that activity increasing later with strong to gale force northwest winds. Fine over NSW and QLD under the high.

Rain increasing over SA and VIC with a front moving through with a strong to gale force northwest to westerly wind regime. Cold and showery through the southwest of the nation, with the severe weather risk easing, but the rainfall continuing. Warm and breezy over the eastern inland with the warm air from WA being dragged in ahead of the frontal weather pushing eastwards over the nation.

Wednesday 14th of July 2021

Strong long wave engulfing the southern half of the nation with wintry weather for most of the south. A ridge over the east adopting a winter time position keeping the eastern and northern states dry with a westerly flow over the south and a slack easterly flow over the north.

Rain developing for much of the southeast inland with a moisture plume absorbed from the Indian Ocean into a front sliding over the region. Strong to gale force winds continuing for the southern and southeast states. Showers right along the southern coastline will begin to increase over WA later with another upper low drifting through. Fine weather for the northern half with seasonal temperatures returning.

Thursday 15th of July 2021

Another front passing through the southwest, another strong front through the Bight, another through Victoria and another moving offshore NSW, a wintry mess across the south and fine weather over the north with another upper high beginning to develop with temperatures moving above average once again.

Showers with gale force winds over the southern and eastern parts of the nation with a cold airmass moving from west to the east. Showers easing later in the day over the southwest with a gusty southerly flow. The northern two thirds of the nation will remain dry and seasonal with a slack easterly flow.

Friday 16th of July 2021

Strong long wave trough lifting out of the SW of the nation finally after 2 weeks of wild weather, if this verifies. High pressure ridging in. A 588 upper high over Darwin through Cairns keeping things seasonal. A fast zonal flow over the south the main dominant force for the nations weather.

Very cold air with multiple low pressure systems in an unstable atmosphere bringing showers, hail and thunder for SA, VIC and TAS. This will move into the eastern inland during the evening. Fine weather returning to the west after cold starts and fine over the north though a little more humidity developing.


Lets compare the Euro run with the GFS this evening to see how the signals are looking through the short term.


00z GFS Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern the next 16 days

00z Euro Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 10 days.

The Euro starting to add more moisture into the sequence impacting the southern and southeast states next week, that will likely see your numbers refine and probably increase over SA and VIC.

Need more weather information? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for more details.


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