NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - TUESDAY 22ND OF JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Wet and windy weather through the southwest of the nation contracting through SA and the central interior on Tuesday night.

  • Rain developing for the eastern inland from Wednesday, increasing at night.

  • Clearing conditions over the west coast of WA.

  • Warm and becoming humid over the north.

Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms moving through in an organised fashion from the northwest through to the southeast of the nation, with widespread falls being delivered to many locations of the outback. Some locations also recording some well below average temperatures during Wednesday and this focus will come into the east on Thursday.


Rain developing over the eastern inland on Wednesday after a wet night through many parts of SA. The rainfall will be patchy and light at first over NSW and VIC but will increase later in the day and through Thursday as a trough moves into more moisture laden air over the region. Moderate to heavy falls are possible about the southeast of NSW and northeast of VIC. But rain shadowing will be running high in these states.


Clearing conditions over in the west of the nation as high pressure moves in and starts to settle the atmosphere down, but along the south coast of WA, more showers and windy weather with the low slow to move off to the east mid week.


Warmer over the north of the nation as humidity values come up in response to a slack easterly wind regime. The chance of showers and thunderstorms may return later this week.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

Deep low pressure off the south coast of WA driving strong winds and showers to the south coast of WA. A large cloud band with rain and storms spreading through inalnd WA southeast to the NT and SA today and moving into western VIC and NSW tonight. Clearing skies along the west and east coasts under high pressure.

Large cloud band sweeping through SA with a middle level rain band on the western flank of the high cloud shied moving into Central SA this evening. High cloud mostly rain free over the remainder but that rain will start to break out from the west overnight. Colder air starting to work in towards the Eucla.

Temperatures - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

Spot the cloud and rainfall over the nation!? The large thermal gradient in response to the front clear to see across the nation today with 21C at Broome but 33C Wadeye in clearer skies. Temperatures well below average over the inland areas today with thick cloud and rain. Some locations up to 12C below average across the APY Lands.

A closer look at the temperatures through SA, very cold with rainfall over the inland with feels like temperatures of below 5C in some locations. Mild and mostly sunny over in the east but the clouds are thickening this evening, lifting overnight minima as a result.

Radar - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

The scale of the system is quite remarkable, it has been quite some time since we have seen such enormous cloud bands in June. This is rain that is brining above average June falls to inland parts of SA, WA and the NT. The rainfall will pick up over the eastern inland later Wednesday into Thursday.

Rainfall for the next 4 days - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

Widespread rainfall over the coming 4 days, before things clear off. Then another system developing for the west coast during the weekend with heavier falls.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

An additional rainfall event emanating from the west is likely to bring more widespread rainfall to the south and east during the outlook period with some moderate to heavy falls about the southwest and then through to the east again.

GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days 00z run - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days 00z run - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days 00z run - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021


Model Discussion and Analysis


GFS 00z 500mb anomalies/18000ft flow pattern

GFS 00z Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution.


Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Deep upper low over the Bight continuing to remain slow moving with an upper high over the Tasman Sea bringing stable weather to the east coast. A new ridge bringing settled skies into western parts of the nation. Heights coming up over the northern parts of Australia.

Extensive rain developing through western parts of NSW and VIC spreading east through the day with rainfall rates increasing over the eastern inland. Extensive showers over coastal SA with gale force winds, local hail and thunder later. Showers about the east coast but mainly light and isolated. A few showers over the northern parts of the NT with humidity values rising. Fine over the west with cloud decreasing over the Kimberly. Dry in the southwest.

Thursday 24th of June 2021

Deep upper low advancing east to be southeast of Adelaide bringing another front and further showery weather, with moderate falls. A trough in the east moving towards the Great Dividing Range. A large high over the Tasman Sea keeping skies clear and a new ridge over the southwest bringing more stable weather. Cold through the central parts of the nation.

A trough brining widespread rain through QLD, NSW and northeast VIC with heavy falls possible about the western slopes in NSW and the northeast slopes in VIC. Some clearance expected later. A low moving into southeast SA bringing widespread showers, hail and thunder with moderate falls possible. A few showers along the east coast and about the NT with some inland thunderstorms over the Top End.

Friday 25th of June 2021

Upper low from Thursday beginning to open up into a broad upper trough with conditions still unsettled in the east and southeast. Upper high over the Tasman holding firm helping to weaken the trough. A new high approaching the west coast keeping skies clear.

Rain contracting into QLD with a trough of low pressure hanging up north of a developing high over the southeast. Cold and showery in the wake of a low moving through the southeast though conditions easing from the west later. Small hail and thunder possible about the southeast. Some snowfalls are also possible but mainly light falls. Fine weather returning to much of the west of the country.

Saturday 26th of June 2021

Upper trough slowly moving east with a little upper low on the trough over northwest NSW which may kick off more cloud and rainfall potential. An upper high over NZ remaining strong and stationary. Another upper high moving into WA keeping skies clear there. Humidity values beginning to reduce over the NT.

Trough of low pressure hanging on over eastern QLD with patchy rain or showers. A large high moving in from the west, clearing skies over much of the southern half of the country. Humidity values starting to come down over the northern parts of the country with winds veering into the southeast. A weak front moving through the southern ocean may bring some late showers to the southwest of the nation.

Sunday 27th of June 2021

Upper trough being replaced by a building ridge over the southern states with conditions stabalising throughout. A weak upper disturbance hanging on over QLD with some cloudy skies and cooler weather. A strong long wave on the approach to the southwest bringing the next wave of weather to the western half of the nation from Sunday.

A weak front cuts off from the flow and may bring a few coastal showers over the southeast but clearing later in the day with high pressure stablising the region. Rain still persisting over eastern parts of QLD with a near stationary trough nearby. Front on the approach to the southwest of WA bringing a large burst of showers and storms and gale force winds later in the day. Humidity comes down over the north with clearer skies and higher fire dangers.

Monday 28th of June 2021

Strong long wave passing through the west bringing wintry weather back to the west of the nation. Weak upper trough hanging on over QLD bringing more unsettled weather. Strong upper high over the southeast bringing cold nights and sunny days to kick off the new working week.

Strong cold front moving in to WA on Monday will weaken on the approach to SA with high cloud increasing and perhaps a little rain later in the day. Showers in the wake of the system over the front with moderate falls, local hail and thunder also possible. Warming up in the southeast in a northwest flow. Showers along the east coast easing with the trough lifting out from the coast. Some chance of another cloud band developing over the northwest of the nation.


Tuesday 29th of June 2021

Strong upper high over the southeast with stable conditions. Upper low way offshore the east coast. Strong long wave moving through WA with a trough anchored over the western interior, possibly leading to more cloudy skies and colder weather developing from the west and spreading into the east later.

Showers moving in from WA through to SA with patchy light rainfall likely. Cloudy skies over much of the northwest of the nation, may not initiate into rainfall but we have seen looks in modelling suggesting that rainfall from northwest to southeast are possible. Showers over the eastern parts of QLD and the NT with light falls. Showers increasing once again over the southwest of the nation with another front approaching.

Friday 2nd of July 2021

Upper lows over WA and one off the east coast fueling some unsettled weather. Weak ridge over the southeast keeping things dry locally. Heights below normal over much of northern Australia may lead to more afternoon cloud and temperatures near seasonal.

Trough over the southwest bringing rain and a thunderstorm or two to the southwest with a colder airmass moving in from the southwest. Local hail about the coast possible later. Showers along the east coast with a weak trough, otherwise mostly dry elsewhere under high pressure which is dominating the region.


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