NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - TUESDAY 1ST JUNE 2021.

Headlines.


  • Cloud increasing over the east with patchy rainfall developing over SA.

  • Rainfall to increase over the east in coming days.

  • Settled skies for the west over the next few days.

  • A major change on the cards next week over the south and east.

Cloud has started to move over SA, through VIC, NSW and southwest QLD today in association with a trough and low pressure system lifting out of WA and moving towards SA. The trough is somewhat decoupled from the low pressure system and sits well in advance of the low, with little moisture to work with. So no rainfall of any note occurring at this time through SA.


That trough though will become more active as it does move into moderately moist air and a sharpens a tad over the east of SA, before moving through NSW on Thursday. There, more moisture will be drawn in from the north and northwest with residual moisture also sitting over parts of QLD in onshore winds, also being drawn south, to produce areas of rain with moderate falls.


The pattern flip has allowed the west of the nation to dry today, with clearance now extending further east with a ridge of high pressure starting to nose in from the west. Colder nights are on the way with some local morning frost over the inland possible, but it is a low end threat.


Next week, there has been a lot of chatter on the social media and weather weeny pages, about all sorts of dramatic weather developing over the east. The forecast confidence on who gets what is still low, but there is a strengthening signal for not only cold weather, but possibly severe weather over a number of states.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Tuesday 1st June 2021.

Cloud is feeding over much of SA through to the eastern states, with little rainfall at this time. Cloud back near a low pressure system is still seeing showers rotate onto the east coast of WA through the Eucla and into the Nullabor this afternoon and evening. Cloud thickening over NSW and QLD is in association with better moisture being drawn in from the northwest. Dry and clear elsewhere away from NW WA with a moisture feed still in place dragging in high and middle level clouds. Some low cloud is evident over the northern coast of QLD with some light showers.

A closer look at the southeast and you can see the impact of the higher air pressure coupled with dry air in place, thinning out the middle level cloud. Further cloud is developing over eastern NT through northwest NSW and southwest QLD where moisture is starting to reform a new cloud band with rain likely to break out overnight.

Rainfall is very lean across the south and east under that cloud with a few spits and no measurable rainfall seen so far since 9am this morning. A lot of the measurable rainall is sitting offshore and with the low pressure system southwest of Ceduna.


Radar as of 3pm EST

Temperatures this afternoon have warmed up nicely through parts of SA and western NSW and QLD, where a northerly flow is bringing in the warmer airmass from the north, despite it being cloudy. After being cold in the east at first today, it warmed up with morning sunshine but cloud has thickened. Cloudy skies keeping temperatures near average over VIC and southern SA. Cooler back over in WA but temperatures will rebound in the coming days. Seasonal over northern parts of the nation.


Temperatures - Valid 3pm EST Tuesday 1st June 2021.

A closer look at the warm up through SA and western parts of NSW and QLD shows that thermal gradient increasing, which will help to destablise the atmosphere ahead of the upper low moving in over Wednesday and Thursday. There is moisture surging in from northern Australia with this warmer air too.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Tuesday 1st of June 2021.

No change to the guidance this afternoon, this map will be updated Wednesday morning when a few more data sets come through with more guidance. Two rain events for the east and one expected over the west during this period, though WA numbers will increase as we go through the week and begin to absorb an event for later next week along the west coast.

You can see below the model madness will make rainfall predictions hard. We will know more on the system next week by the weekend.


GFS Rainfall 00z run for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday June 1st 2021.

CMC Rainfall 00z run for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday June 1st 2021.

Euro Rainfall 00z run for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday June 1st 2021.


Model discussion and analysis

GFS 00z run at 500mb/18000ft showing the pattern above our head

GFS 00z run at the surface with rainfall distribution.

Valid Tuesday June 1st 2021.


Wednesday 2nd June 2021.

Upper low moving over central SA with a surface low displaced to the south moving closer to Adelaide and moving east. Ridging in the east and in the west with a zonal flow well to the south of the nation, gathering strength. A weak cold front will move out of this zonal flow into Bight waters later tomorrow night.

Rain developing early in the day for eastern and central SA and spreading towards the south and east, with a few thunderstorms for southwest QLD and northwest NSW. Showers near the remnant low over the central coast of SA may have small hail and a rumble of thunder. Cloud increasing further east through the day. Showers developing along the coast, mainly isolated and light from Hervey Bay northwards during the day. Dry over the west with high pressure moving in.

Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Upper low moving over central NSW with a trough extending into southern QLD. A weak front starting to approach the southeast, helping to kick along the upper low during Thursday afternoon. A strong ridge moving into WA keeping things nice and calm and dry. Heights about where they should be over the tropics.

Widespread rain and a few storms pushing through southern QLD through NSW into Central VIC with moderate to isolated heavy falls over parts of northern NSW and southern QLD. The rain will clear from the west later. Morning showers possible off the coast of the Daly region in the Top End early in the day. A front will break down over southeast Australia with a few showers and drizzle developing. Some of the showers may be wintry in Tasmania by nightfall. Dry out west and warming up.

Friday 4th of June 2021.

Upper low moving offshore the east coast, taking the rain and thunderstorms with it. Another front passing through the southeast bringing a round of showers and strong winds to southern VIC and TAS with lighter falls back into southeast SA. Ridging out west continuing to bring warm and sunny weather with light winds. A weak trough hanging back along the jet stream producing cloud over inland Australia.

Rain moving off the east coast with a colder southerly wind developing, as the low becomes invigorated by a cold front passing over southeast Australia. There could be another surge in large surf for the east coast this weekend. Showers with some small hail for southern VIC and TAS on Friday will ease during the day, morning showers clearing by afternoon in southeast SA. Fine and warm out west with a strong ridge continuing.

Saturday 5th of June 2021.

Trough still sitting just offshore the east coast with the wet weather staying mainly offshore. A new front on the approach to Bight water during the day. Ridging remaining near stationary over WA with cool nights and warm days. Seasonal weather back through northern Australia, though cloud may increase along the axis of a jet stream with heights coming down.

Strong southerly winds and a few showers parallel to the NSW coast on Saturday with large and powerful surf once again. Showers possible in the morning over the coastal Daly District of the NT. Cloud thickening over northwest Australia with some patchy rainfall possible near a developing cloud band. Dry for the west and south with freshening northwesterly winds for VIC and TAS.

Sunday 6th of June 2021

Shortwave passing through the east bringing a cooler change to the southeast. Strong ridge over SA leading to clear skies, but the main wave action starting to stand up and strengthen to the south of the nation, that is the feature to watch from Sunday.

High pressure progressing eastwards with clearer skies and a lovely day after cold starts. Cloud developing over the southeast with a few showers about VIC and TAS. A stronger system starting to stand up in the southern ocean may bring showers to the southwest of WA later in the day as it clips the region before moving east. Fine elsewhere with seasonal weather.

Monday 7th of June 2021.

Strong cold front beginning to surge north being propelled by ridging to the southwest of the nation which is also strengthening. That front now likely to peak a little further west, so it could come through SA with unsettled weather later. Heights about average elsewhere for this time of year. But the main weather event will be connected with that strong long wave trough over the Bight next week.

A band of rain moving through the Great Australian Bight coming into the southern parts of SA later on Monday. Strong and gusty northwest winds developing for the southern coastlines with severe weather warnings for damaging winds possible. Elsewhere, relatively dry weather, maybe a few showers about the northeast Top End and about the QLD coast north of Bowen, but light falls for now. Keep an eye on that moisture just offshore the Pibara coast, today it has the rainfall staying offshore but other looks have had it coming ashore.

A week from today - Tuesday 8th of June 2021.

Upper low deepening over SA in this run, with a band of rain moving through central parts of the nation. Ridging in the west and in the east with dry weather. A classic high amplitude pattern for Australia in early winter. Dry weather for the north of the nation with strengthening winds.

A slow moving band of rain moving into western VIC later in the day. But the main weather will be over SA in this scenario with widespread showers, areas of rain, hail and thunderstorms. Strong to gale force clockwise winds through the southeast with falling temperatures. Areas of raised dust over inland areas of SA. Fine and becoming windy in the southwest with elevated temperatures with a deepening trough offshore. A few showers possible about the east coast in onshore winds and about the eastern parts of the Top End with onshore winds.

The low deepens over western NSW taking a broad band of rain and storms through NSW and VIC into southern QLD with the chance of severe thunderstorms through QLD under current guidance. A cold airmass over the southeast inland will produce widespread showers, local hail and squalls. Snowfalls will develop later in the day over the east with initially rainfall likely ahead of the cold burst in the warm sector. Gusty winds and cloud increasing over WA with rain developing with a deep trough offshore, with a strong high pressure in between.

The low becomes broad on the 10th with multiple centres developing along a trough stretching from the east coast down through to VIC with heavy rainfall. Strong and gusty winds over southern Australia with widespread showers and small hail into SA. Cold with rain for northern Tasmania. Afternoon showers and storms for NSW and northern VIC with a cold airmass. Small hail possible if this verifies. Not too much snowfalls, with the airmass not freezing in this latest run.

Taking it out 10 days - Friday 11th of June 2021.

A deep upper low over the east of Victoria beginning to move southeast and away. A strong ridge over NZ may slow the process but could equally force the system south. Ridging to the west also weakening with the next wave of low pressure off WA begins to move east. Heights about normal elsewhere.

The low over inland NSW begins to move south with the flow tending more southwesterly, with more rain and showers for southeastern Australia with windy conditions. Not too much snowfalls still under the current guide, there will be some but not a huge amount. Rain developing over WA once again with the approach of another front. Fine elsewhere with broad high pressure controlling much of mainland Australia.


The corresponding Euro model this evening, in it's 00z run showing a very dynamic system next week also.


Wednesday June 9th 2021.

Deep broad upper low with significant amount of cold air rotating around NSW and VIC with near severe weather over multiple states likely. Ridging in the west and east also helping to keep the low moving through slowly while drawing up very cold air from the south over SA.

Thursday June 10th 2021.

A very deep upper low near Canberra driving widespread gales and heavy showers, small hail and thunder with snowfalls developing. Cold southerly winds over SA with showers, easing from the west later. A new wave of low pressure off WA will bring late rain to the west and southwest coast. Fine elsewhere, though a dry colder surge will extend through QLD and into the NT.

Friday 11th of June 2021.

Upper low is starting to weaken offshore NSW with a cold cyclonic southwest flow continuing for the southeast states with showers, hail and thunder with strong southwest winds. Clearing conditions though cold through the eastern and central inland with skies becoming sunny. Cooler and drier over the NT. A new wave of fronts sitting offshore WA will bring further rainfall to the region during afternoon.

Consequently, rainfall distribution will be determined by placement of the low pressure system next week which is carrying the heavy falls.


Euro Model 12z run May 31st 2021.

Euro Model 12z run June 1st 2021.

So watch this space.......


Want more weather information for your part of the world? Email me for tailored forecast options and how I may be able to help you - karllijnders@weathermatters.org

0 views0 comments