NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - THURSDAY 22ND OF JULY 2021

Headlines


  • Rainfall is spreading from SA into NSW and northern VIC tonight with some moderate rainfall being observed in thirsty parts of western NSW and eastern SA this afternoon.

  • A cold rain is expected for NSW on Friday with the weather clearing briefly in SA ahead of the next front.

  • The frontal weather this weekend still expected to bring a wintry wild weekend of weather.

  • More frontal weather next week as the persistence pattern continues for the nation.


National Satellite Picture - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

A decent band of rain is moving through the east now with the cloud starting to thicken further, the rainfall more organised than modelling suggested which is good. Heavy rainfall with the low over the EP is moving east along the coast but will weaken and wash out as the low begins to move into NSW on Friday. Fast moving cold fronts to the south of the nation are expected to approach later Friday.

Temperatures -Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Very warm to hot over the north and some of that air has started to filter southeast into northern SA ahead of the wind change that is passing through the state as the low moves east. This is a sign of what is to come over the coming days. Cold rain over the eastern parts of SA into western VIC and southwest NSW, temperatures have not budged from the cold start this morning and will likely warm overnight. A nice day out west and east with only a few showers for the extreme coast.

Some of the coldest July temperatures in quite some time today for this region, some areas only reaching 6C but I do think temperatures will warm up overnight so some areas may make it to double figures by morning.

Radar - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Widespread rainfall for an area that needs it. It is not a long duration rainfall event but it is welcome none the less with falls of 5-15mm in this region, more rainfall to come this weekend with more moderate falls. The rain has dodged Adelaide today.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Rainfall largely unchanged again this evening, the numbers dropping off a little for parts of SA where rainfall has occurred today and this will continue to bounce around in line with the frontal weather coming and going. Numbers coming up over the NSW GDR with the low and more moisture coming in with showers over the weekend. Showers again becoming more widespread at the end of the run for the eastern inland after fronts drecnch the southwest of the nation.

00z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Rainfall largely unchanged again this evening, it looks the same most days this week, but I promise you that it is the latest data. The westerly wind profile set to dominate proceedings over the south, upper high over the north.

That persistence forecast continues into the first week of August with no change in the modelling in the medium term. Check out the 2 week forecast today for more.

00z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Rainfall remains largely unchanged for the nation with that westerly win regime looking firm for the coming 10 days over southern Australia. However, there are two cloud bands during next week that are growing with each run and these will need to be watched during Sunday and Monday as we get better data on the moisture coming in from the northwest. These may bring more extensive rainfall for southern and eastern Australia than what is being advertised.

00z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

The latest CMC is a little more generous with moisture over the north and east for the coming 10 days but really the pattern is in line with other modelling, more of the same weather conditions for the coming 10 days.


Model discussion and analysis


00z GFS Upper Air Pattern and about 18000ft - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

The upper air pattern I promise you is the latest data and again no change from this morning with the winter westerly wind profile to the south continuing to dominate proceedings and the upper high over the north continuing to keep things hot and dry for the next 2 weeks. There is a sign perhaps that the pattern may shift at the end of the first week of August with a high nosing in from the north and moving over southern Australia.

00z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

This is the latest data and note that the low is well organised now and the models did not handle this well at all, so we will have to watch each system passing through southern Australia this next week as there could be changes to come to each of those. Finally a large high looks to bring a change in conditions to the nation at the end of the first week of August at this stage. That may allow everything to reset and maybe introduce inland rainfall opportunities shortly thereafter.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

I wish there was more I could tell you about the charts but it is cut and paste weather at the moment, which happens in winter. Thankfully there is no blocking high over the south. This is a seasonal weather map for July and August with the driest time of the year continuing over the north and eastern seaboard. The humid and wetter weather will come back before you know for northern and eastern areas, but that may take until the back half of August.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Keeping a watch on the northwesterly infeed of moisture as the Indian Ocean comes back into play during next week. The moisture values are similar to what is crossing over SA into NSW and we know from tracking this system at the moment last week, that the rainfall is much more widespread than what was advertised last week. That will likely be the case for next week so I do suspect more inland rainfall will be drawn in over the coming 5 days.

00z Euro Simulated IR Imagery- Thursday 22nd of July 2021

And you can see the moisture interacting with the frontal weather and note the large cloud bands that are likely to develop next week with areas of rainfall developing over WA and SA. These will likely run into the southeast later next week.


More weather details to come on the northwest cloud band later this evening.

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