NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - THURSDAY 1ST OF JULY 2021.

Headlines


  • Following a trough deepening through the eastern inland of NSW and QLD, that has brought some significant rainfall to parts of northern inland NSW and spilled over the border into southern QLD. Some areas of southwest QLD receiving their heaviest July rainfall in many years. The rain marching eastwards over the coming days.

  • That is being helped along by a strong cold front that is working overtime to move further east into a blocking high pressure system over NZ, that front expected to bring a cold rainfall through southeastern SA and western VIC on Friday with falling temperatures.

  • Mild and sunny over in WA with above average temperatures to continue for the next 48 hours or so before we see cloud increasing for the west coast and significant rainfall begin to descend over the western and southwestern inland.

  • Fine weather over northern and central Australia with drier air still filtering through the region over the coming weeks.

National Satellite Picture - Valid 4pm EST Thursday 1st of July 2021.

A broader look at the satellite and you can track the trough in the east the strong cold front in the Bight. The difference between the systems being out of phase creating that dry slot over SA and VIC today with subsidence. Way off the west coast you can see that developing cold front and low pressure system. That is the next event coming in for Sunday.

Significant cloud forming ahead of a trough as it moves into a deeper moisture profile, thanks to persistent onshore winds with moderate rainfall about, some locally heavy falls have been observed over parts of NSW and southern QLD during the past 24 hours. Rain continues to spread south and east tonight and then into eastern QLD on Friday and Saturday.

Strong cold front rising through the Bight and now slowing down thanks to a blocking pattern over NZ, thus seeing the lead front looking a little worse for wear this evening. The second front will make it across the region with widespread showers and gusty winds on Friday with a wintry airmass.

And a closer look at that front over the Indian Ocean moving steadily east. Note the large amounts of tropical moisture over the northern Indian Ocean with that moisture likely to play a part in the weather next week over southern and western Australia.

Temperatures - Valid 4pm EST Thursday 1st of July 2021.

A warm afternoon nationally with only the eastern inland under cloud and rainfall, quite cool, but with higher humidity values, it doesn't feel brutally cold. Warm west of the cloud band behind the trough through SA and northern VIC. Fine and seasonal over the north and mild across the west coast.

A closer look at that surge of warm dry air in the northwest flow ahead of a cold front rising up to the northeast through the Bight. A mild and windy night over the southeast of the nation before the temperatures fall on Friday afternoon from the west with high wind chill.

Radar - Valid 4pm EST Thursday 1st of July 2021.

A large band of rain with a few thunderstorms currently working through much of eastern NSW west of the GDR and now moving over the GDR. Showers and storms extend further north through to Central QLD. The rainfall coverage increases through QLD on Friday and more so on Saturday with heavy falls for the east coast and through to parts of Central QLD. A front can be seen coming through the Bight, showers along the southern coast of WA with that front and showers and rain rotating around the low pressure system in the southern BIght.

Widespread rainfall has been observed through areas of northern and central inland NSW and over the border into the southern inland of QLD. Some locations recording a month's worth of rainfall through the first day of July! More rain is coming tonight before the focus shifts east with dry cooler air moving into this region.


Rainfall NSW to 5pm EST - Thursday 1st of July 2021

30-50mm over parts of the northern inland with soaking rainfall spreading south. Increasing showers over coastal areas with some moderate falls over the northeast coast. Ignore the red dot and the heavier totals through the ACT as these are false readings.

Rainfall QLD to 5pm EST - Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Widespread rainfall through inland areas with moderate falls to a thirsty inland and it continues to rain. Showers heavy at times over the tropical QLD coast after nearly 300mm in some locations this week. Widespread showers over the southeast coastal areas with 5-20mm today after similar amounts overnight.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 1st of July 2021

Heavy rainfall for the eastern inland of QLD still expected with the heaviest falls likely as the trough stalls through the Capricornia through to the WIde Bay and adjacent inland. Rainfall clearing from the west through QLD tomorrow. Rainfall easing through NSW over the coming 36hrs with another event later in the period. Rain increasing over the southeast of SA and western and central VIC with a front and low pressure system over the coming two to three days. Rain over in the west from Sunday, making that a theme for most of next week with a fast flow pattern bringing widespread rainfall at regular intervals.



00Z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Rainfall in two parts for the eastern inland. The lead system contracting rainfall eastwards over the coming day with another system this time next week on the approach. Showers with a cold outbreak through the southeast, especially coastal SA and VIC with moderate falls, next week's system jumps SA but I wouldn't read to much into that for now. Rain, heavy through the southwest with a frontal barrage from Sunday. And dry for the inland, again moisture should fill this space from later in the period.

00Z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Heavy rainfall for the eastern inland of QLD extending into northern NSW contracting eastwards, then a second system, like GFS for the eastern inland in about 7-10 days time. Showers, quite moderate and frequent in coming days for the southeast of SA and southwest of VIC with lighter falls coming inland. Rain, some heavy for the west coast of WA with a frontal barrage from Sunday. And not convinced that the moisture will be that deprived through inland areas looking at the moisture offshore the NW of Australia.

00Z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Rainfall looks heavy and possibly the heaviest July rainfall we have seen in over a decade through inland QLD over the coming 48hrs. This is good news for this region which has missed out on rainfall through the past few months. Rainfall numbers overlap with two systems in the east. Showers could be quite widespread through southeast SA and western VIC tomorrow and Saturday. Rainfall heavy for the southwest, though this particular run a little drier for southwest WA, I am keeping rainfall totals unchanged for now.


Model Discussion and Analysis - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021


00Z GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution.


Friday 2nd of July 2021

Strong upper trough moving into the southeast, slowly advancing east, up against a big brick wall over NZ in the upper high. A trough slowly moving towards the east being squeezed by the front moving into the southeast, invigorating the feature. Settled under a ridge over the southeast and heights near normal over the north.

A band of rain through southeast SA with moderate falls about the coast and a colder southwesterly change, spreading eastwards through the day. Rain won't reach central VIC until afternoon or evening. Showers and storms over QLD tending to rain areas over NSW tonight and clearing eastwards during Friday. Storms may be heavy over the northeast of NSW and QLD during Friday. Fine elsewhere with a high developing over the southwest and moving east.

Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Strong upper trough moving into the southeast with a cold wintry airmass. A trough hanging back over parts of QLD producing more unsettled weather. Upper high continues to dominate NZ and the Tasman, remaining slow moving, if not retrograding back to the west. Another ridge over WA moving east, but beginning to slow down due to the block upstream.

Rain and storms through southeast and central QLD with increasing confidence of heavy falls and potential flash flooding for parts of the region. Cooler and drier through inland NSW and SA with a high ridging in and dry air in place. Showers and windy weather over coastal southeast SA and southern VIC with a few troughs rotating around a low sitting offshore. Small hail and snowfalls possible about Alpine areas. Fine over in WA with above average temperatures.

Sunday 4th of July 2021

Upper trough over the southeast, becoming stationary and being weakened by that huge upper high over NZ. Another ridge building through the central parts of the nation. Trough over QLD weakening and lifting towards the east. A strong long wave off the WA coast may bring some windy wet weather later in the day. Slack pressure pattern over northern Australia with above average temperatures.

Rain clearing offshore QLD during the morning with a drier airmass in place and cooler. Fine through much of inland Australia with a strong moving in. The low pressure system over the southeast beginning to move away to the southeast, with winds and showers easing later. Windy with rain increasing for WA with a colder shift later in the day with a strong cold front approaching with an associated moisture in feed from the northwest.

Monday 5th of July 2021

Upper trough over NSW lifting offshore with a ridge to follow behind this trough bringing improving conditions. The strong upper high still over NZ and slowly moving east now. A very strong long wave bringing wintry weather with potentially the worst of the winter so far this season. Slack pressure pattern over northern Australia.

High pressure moving over SA bringing cold nights and sunny days, with light winds, settled typical winter weather. Fine weather over the east with cloud decreasing as high pressure moves in. Early showers over the southeast coastal areas clearing as a weak shortwave moves east. Fine over the north with above average temperatures. Rain with strong winds for the southwest with another strong front passing through the SWLD.

Tuesday 6th of July 2021

Strong long wave persists over the southwest. A zonal flow establishing over the nation with a fast flow aloft. Short wave over the Tasman, finally knocking out the high from NZ with that cell weakening. A typical winter weather pattern.

Deep low south of WA with frontal weather rotating through the region bringing windy showery weather to the region. A high steadily moving to the east bringing cold nights sunny days with a settled airmass. Fine weather over northern Australia with below average temperatures continue for the southwest. Elsewhere it is looking seasonal.

Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Strong long wave becoming more active and moving north with multiple waves bringing wild wintry weather to the west. A trough lagging back over QLD may bringing some cooler than average weather but the ridge close by should be the stabilizing force for much of northern and eastern Australia.

A few coastal showers with a weak trough over the east coast. A strong cold front lining up the southwest of the nation with the lead frontal weather staying offshore SA at this stage, but a warm and windy northwest flow developing for southern Australia boosting day time temperatures. Still cold nights for the east but seasonal weather to follow and more humid over northern Australia with an easterly flow developing.

Thursday 8th of July 2021

Strong long wave passing through the southwest with severe wintry weather possible. A large upper ridge moving steadily eastwards over eastern Australia. An upper high developing over northern Australia with seasonal weather trying to return.

Strong cold front racing through the southwest with a low sitting offshore, bringing widespread rainfall and strong winds. Heavy rainfall is possible. Showers will spread along the southern parts of the coast line reaching SA later. Fine elsewhere at this stage under a high pressure ridge which will be moving east. Northwest winds allowing temperatures to rise above average. Maybe a few showers about the east coast but relatively light falls compared to this week.

Taking it out the next day and a front moves through rapidly with a band of rain through the eastern inland, we will keep an eye on that together to see how that verifies in the coming days but CMC and Euro have also being playing with this idea.

Saturday 10th of July 2021

Long wave troughs through the southwest and southeast in a large scale zonal flow bringing wintry weather through southern Australia and seasonal winter conditions for many parts of central and northern Australia.

Wavy flow with a trough leaving the east with brief clearance, though unstable through the southeast with showery winds. A strong cold front with severe winter weather possible for the southwest of the nation if this verifies, with heavy rainfall and damaging winds moving east through the SWLD with moderate follow up rainfall from a wet week. Fine weather elsewhere with seasonal conditions under high pressure.


GFS vs Euro comparison for the week ahead - can see whether the data sets are in agreement or not.


00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.


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