Strong cold front approaching SA this evening with a band of rain and storms
Strong to gale force winds ahead of the system spreading east this evening.
Cold air racing north increasing the severe weather threat through southern and eastern Australia.
Another severe weather event expected out west mid to late this week.
A dynamic and robust weather system is on the approach to SA this evening, spreading a band of rain and thunderstorms through the region tonight and into western VIC later this evening. Some moderate rainfall is likely with gales to continue as the colder weather begins to move in.
Strong to gale force winds are currently spreading through SA into VIC this evening, with winds of up to 100kmh possible this evening over western and central VIC and reaching the east overnight, where gusts could exceed 110kmh. The strong to gale force winds may even impact on the NSW Alpine areas by Tuesday morning before easing.
Cold air is racing north this evening, it is still well offshore, but will surge north as a southerly wind regime develops, squeezed together by the strong high offshore WA and the developing low over the east, the strong pressure gradient and long fetch southerly flow bringing in the very cold and unstable airmass northwards.
Another low is developing off WA this afternoon and is expected to deepen as it heads south and then southeast over the coming 2-3 days. Strong to gale force northerly winds will feature along the SWLD with possibly storm force winds about the Capes during Thursday as the system moves just to the southwest. Winds and rainfall to bring cooler weather later this week.
National Satellite Picture - Valid Monday June 7th 2021.
A strong cold front can be clearly seen moving into the Bight, standing up on approach to SA this afternoon and this evening. Vigorous northwest flow aloft can be seen painted on the high clouds racing over western VIC. Very cold air following the front beginning to lift north with a developing low pressure area showing up. Thick cloud off WA is with a developing low which is expected to deepen over the coming 24 hours and approach the region. Otherwise fine and dry most everywhere else.
Closer look at the colder air moving through southeastern Australia this evening, showing the thermal gradient kicking off the high winds over the southeast but also a lot of cloud, as the moisture begins to be lifted into areas of rainfall over SA. This area of rain will begin to move in western VIC tonight and through to NSW on Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms ahead and behind the front lifting the chance of severe weather chances with ongoing damaging winds an issue. (See severe weather section for more details)
Temperatures as of 330pm EST - Valid Monday June 7th 2021
A nice warm up today after a cold and foggy frosty start in the east, with nation generally in above average temperatures with a prevailing dry northwest flow aloft. Note the colder air surging towards the SA coast and that cooler air initiated the SWLD yesterday, much cooler there today with mid to high teens only, but the warmth will return to the west from tomorrow, the east turns polar cold.
A closer look at that temperature gradient. You have low to mid 20s over parts of SA but where cloud and rain has begun falling, back to the mid teens. Offshore over the Bight, it is less than 8C at the moment and a biting southwest wind. That is moving north.
Radar as of 330pm EST - Valid Monday June 7th 2021
A band of rain on the approach to SA with embedded thunderstorms observed in the band as it rolls into the warm air. Strong and squally cold southerly winds behind the band of rain, producing widespread showers, local hail and thundersqualls with some snowfalls over water well south.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday June 7th 2021
GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Monday June 7th 2021
CMC Rainfall for the coming 8 days - Valid Monday June 7th 2021
Model discussion and analysis
Valid Monday June 7th 2021
GFS 00z Run - 500mb flow pattern at 18000ft
GFS 00z Run - MSLP and rainfall distribution
Tuesday June 8th 2021
Strong cold front moving through the southeast tonight begins to cut off into a low southwest of VIC. Colder air racing around in the upper levels into western NSW and VIC while engulfing SA will produce a severe weather threat. High pressure ridge in the west and east continuing to slow the movement of this system down.
A deep surface low beginning to form in Bass Strait bringing a band of rain and storms through western NSW and VIC early in the day. Showers hail and thunder to follow over southern and central SA with moderate falls and squally winds. Snow possible about the Lofty Ranges and Flinders. Rain areas over TAS with locally heavy falls about the NW of the Island. Strong northwest winds in the east will ease and then turn strong and gusty cold westerly later in the day over much of NSW. A few showers along the QLD coast will clear during the morning. Cloudy along the west coast with a strong north wind developing later with the approach of the low offshore.
Wednesday June 9th 2021
Deep upper low over NSW producing a severe weather threat for the day. Very cold airmass over the south and east with snowfalls developing later down to 700m as more moisture becomes entrained into the system. Ridging over the Tasman building through to south of Tasmania and to the ridge out west cradling this deep low. Another low out west is approaching the west coast with a severe weather threat.
Deep low developing offshore the south coast producing widespread severe weather through the east with rain and thunderstorms with a leading cold front moving offshore during the day. Showers to follow falling as snow above 700m throughout NSW and VIC. Rain and storms in WA, could be heavy at times with gale force northerly wind shifting squally northwesterly overnight. Fine through SA but cold with a southerly. Dry air moving north into the NT and QLD..
Thursday June 10th 2021
Very deep upper low over Orange in NSW producing widespread severe weather with low level snowfalls and flash flooding rainfall for the south coast of NSW extending into eastern VIC. Ridging over the south, west and east of the system will keep it slow moving and cradled. A low over WA diving south and away with conditions easing. Becoming much colder over the tropics.
Deep surface low moving below 1000hPa over central NSW in this run bringing widespread rain and snow to northern and central NSW. Warmer moist air being dragged in on the strong and gusty southeast to easterly flow, producing heavy rainfall and a flood risk to the south coast of NSW and Gippsland. Showers redeveloping over WA with another front rotating around the departing low to the south, with strong winds and further moderate rainfall. A narrow ridge keeps western VIC and SA dry.
Friday June 11th 2021
Deep upper low becoming slow moving and to be positioned to the north of Sydney on Friday with more severe weather for the region. High pressure to the south of the system beginning to break down, allowing the low to drift south over the course of the day, but the block in the east holds firm. Zonal flow developing over western and northern Australia in advance of the next waves of low pressure.
Widespread rain and showers for the southern and central coast of NSW, with some heavy falls continuing in strong southeasterly winds, which will ease during the day. Showers decreasing for inland NSW as dry and more stable moves in from the west. Showers and thunderstorms, scattered across WA in a broad trough with moisture streaming in from the northwest in mild air. Showers over eastern TAS, turning to rain at night with moderate falls as the low approaches. Fine elsewhere.
Saturday June 12th 2021
Upper low beginning to move south of NSW towards TAS with increasing winds and rain for eastern VIC and TAS. Another wave of low pressure moving through WA bringing more windy weather. A zonal flow beginning to push into QLD and NSW on top of the departing low over the east.
Unstable over the west with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing with frontal weather moving through and troughs anchored in a broadly unstable air flow pattern. Showers with moderate falls over eastern VIC and TAS will ease during the day with winds also easing below strong wind force. Fine weather returns to the east and north, but cloud may develop over northern QLD into the NT with an upper trough forming producing some patchy rainfall offshore.
Sunday June 13th 2021
Upper low still dancing off the VIC coast with morning showers clearing as it gets shunted to the southeast by fast wave action out west, and the collapse of the ridge to the south. Upper heights below average over much of the west with below average temperatures. Fine over much of VIC and NSW with a ridge in place.
Showers about the far southeast again clearing during the afternoon as the low dissolves offshore. A series of cold fronts racing through WA becoming more organized with rain developing from the west. Another cloud band may develop over the Pilbara in advance of that front. Fine through the east and central areas with temperatures rebounding a little but not moving beyond seasonal values.
Monday June 14th 2021
Strong long wave passing through the west with heights well below normal over much of the mainland. The upper low finally opening up into a trough east of TAS and moving away. Fine weather for the east at first, but becoming cloudy and windy with temperatures probably below average for much of the east under the below average heights. A trough over central QLD may bring some rain to the region during the afternoon and evening.
Widespread showers over WA with strong to gale force northwest to southwest winds, with temperatures falling as cold air moves northeast over the region. Rain coming into SA later in the day or at night with the weakening leading front, but winds will increase. Cloud over QLD may produce areas of rainfall about Central QLD, connected to moisture coming via the jetstream, but the forcing is not strong, so light falls for now. Fine and milder over the southeast in strong NW winds.
Thursday June 17th 2021
Deep upper low passing through the eastern inland being pushed along at speed by the zonal flow. Another wave passing through WA with strong winds and colder weather. Ridge over the north where it should be and a new high off WA moving in slowly.
Rain and some heavy falls contracting from NSW and VIC on Wednesday clearing the east Thursday with some rain to return to the coast if a low forms offshore, but this is 10 days out and will likely change. Out west another front bringing more showers to the SWLD with moderate falls. Fine elsewhere though cool with southerly winds continuing over much of the continent.
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