NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - MONDAY JUNE 14TH 2021

Headlines


  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for parts of Central QLD

  • Cloudy though milder through the east and southeast under high pressure.

  • Cold front racing through the southern parts of WA bringing cold and showery weather.

  • Drier air passing through the north.

Showers and thunderstorms continue for parts of QLD this afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning is in force for damaging winds and large hail stones issued by the BoM. Stay up to date with official warnings today. The wet weather continues tonight and through to Wednesday.


A high over NSW has brought in milder weather, but more low level humidity which is causing thick low cloud along the coast which has started to break up over the inland this afternoon, but it is milder with light winds.


Cold front racing through southern WA has brought widespread showers and gusty conditions, with local hail and thunderstorms about the coastal fringe. Some squalls near 100km/h have been observed in response to the front moving through.


Dry air keeping the long weekend nice and peachy over the NT with conditions sunny, though elevated fire dangers starting to develop with dry air about and gusty easterly winds.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Monday June 14th 2021.

Strong cold front pushing through WA bringing widespread showers and gusty winds, with temperatures falling along the coastal fringe extending inland. Cloudy skies over SA and VIC with limited moisture leading to dry weather for the most part. Cloudy skies over QLD streaming into Central QLD with thunderstorms breaking out some of these are severe. Dry weather over the north with gorgeous temperatures.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms breaking out along a trough through the region, producing severe weather potential with large hail and damaging winds a risk this afternoon and evening.

Cold front blasting through the southern parts of WA bringing gusty winds and showers, with hail and thunder. The cold air will contract into the Bight where a low will form during Tuesday south of SA.

Temperatures - Valid Monday June 14th 2021

Temperatures have improved across the nation with a northerly flow developing over SA with partly cloudy skies. Warmer air dropping into the eastern inland with temperatures moving above average. Hot and dry over the Top End. Temperatures taking a dive over WA with the front pushing further north and east this afternoon.

A warm airmass developing through SA after a cold start, with above average temperatures for a large part of the central and eastern parts of the nation. Cool through the southeast with temperatures rising towards seasonal values.

Radar - Valid Monday June 14th 2021

Thunderstorms running along a train track at the moment from west to east, with some storms dropping large hailstone and producing damaging winds. A thunderstorm warning is in force for this region.

Widespread showers over southern WA in response to a front moving through, continuing to push east and north with some of the showery weather producing hail and thunder with squalls throughout.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Monday June 14th 2021

Numbers over the southeast may increase as will numbers over the northwest, with low pressure over the southeast, possibly setting up camp over the region later this week and a larger cloud band feeding into the southeast mid next week.


GFS Rainfall next 10 days - Valid 00z Monday June 14th 2021.

CMC Rainfall next 10 days - Valid 00z Monday June 14th 2021.

KMA Rainfall next 10 days - Valid 00z Monday June 14th 2021.


Model Discussion

GFS 00z run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern above our heads

GFS 00z run - Surface Pattern and Rainfall distribution.


Tuesday 15th of June 2021

Upper low over the Bight moving east with a cold airmass in place. High pressure over the southeast bringing stable weather once again to the eastern states though a middle level trough through QLD kicking off a few showers and storms again. High pressure ridging into southwest of the nation.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over Central QLD tonight, beginning to ease overnight and clear Tuesday, but may be back in isolated fashion. Showers increasing over SA later in the day, easing over southern WA later. Fine over the east and southeast with widespread morning fog possible. Ridging coming into southwest WA clearing skies along the west coast. Becoming a tad more humid over the Top End but remaining sunny.

Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Upper low moving over SA with a cold airmass moving east. Ridging over the east and west keeping both sides of the nation dry. Heights coming up over the north of the nation with sunny skies but a little more humidity. Cold weather will move into the southeast states later in the day.

Showers increasing over SA then spreading into VIC and NSW with a few thunderstorms. Showers and cold southwest winds for southern SA with a deep cold flow moving over the region. Light falls expected. Showers and thunderstorms breaking out over inland QLD and NSW at night along a trough as the cold air rides through the eastern states. Clearing skies off WA with light winds. Fine over the north and remaining a little more humid.

Thursday 17th of June 2021

Deep upper low moves off the coast of NSW with a piggy back system rising out of the southern ocean opening the door for more cold air passing through southern and eastern Australia. High pressure coming into the southwest with clearing skies and light winds. A zonal flow pattern bringing temperatures to seasonal over much of the mid section of the country with fine skies.

Deep surface low under the upper feature may form offshore the South Coast of NSW which may produce heavy rainfall and strong winds for the region, something to watch. A front passing through NSW and QLD may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms once again. A follow up front driving another burst of showers and cold weather through southeastern Australia with widespread light falls. Dry through the remainder of the nation with a large high dominating.

Friday 18th of June 2021

Double upper low, broad upper trough over the southeast continuing the cold and wintry weather over the southeast. Ridging over the southwest of the nation will continue to drive fine weather. Fine over the north with weak ridging in place.

Cold airmass over the southeast driving wintry showery weather with the potential for snowfalls over the Alpine areas and lowering to 700m once again, but light falls with limited moisture supply. Cold weather over SA with showers clearing later. Showers clearing offshore the QLD coast as dry air follows a cold front. Humid air over the Top End with a morning shower offshore the Daly Coast. Fine over in the west with a large high slowly moving east.

Saturday 19th of June 2021

Upper low over the Tasman Sea with a trough hanging back over QLD and NSW bringing cold weather to the east. Upper low largely inactive over outback WA. High pressure over the southwest continuing to drive stable winter weather. Heights coming down over the Top End.

A large high moving east with stable weather coming into SA and VIC through inland NSW and QLD with cold nights returning. Deep low offshore NSW will drive strong southeast winds and showers to the coastal fringe with moderate falls. If the low is closer, heavier falls are possible. Upper trough over outback WA may produce a little light rain with a lot of cloud. Otherwise it is dry elsewhere.

Sunday 20th of June 2021

Large upper high parking itself over the southeast with stable weather developing. Upper low over the Tasman moving east with weather easing along the east coast. Upper low over SA producing a lot of cloud but not much wet weather. Strong cold front approaching southwest WA.

Strong high pressure over the southeast controlling much of the nations weather this weekend with temperatures rebounding to seasonal with light winds after frosty starts. A low in the Tasman will be moving further away with winds veering more southwesterly and clearing skies along the coast. A strong cold front over the southwest of the nation will drive showers and strong winds into the region later in the day.

Monday 21st of June 2021

Deep upper low once again cutting off over WA bringing a wintry blast to the region. A weak upper low over western NSW should be largely inactive with high pressure system close by keeping the atmosphere dry and stable. A low offshore the east coast will clear further east bringing an easing trend to the Tasman Sea. Heights normal over the north leading to seasonal conditions.

A large high over the east keeping things nice and dry, with plenty of winter sunshine. A large cold front and low pressure system over WA will bring showery windy weather, with local hail and thunder to the region. Fine throughout the remainder, though thickening cloud over WA may lead to rainfall developing over the Pilbara and Gascoyne during the afternoon and evening.

Thursday 24th of June 2021

Strong zonal flow over much of the nation with the wave action over southern states bringing more windy weather to WA and SA. High pressure in the east ridging back over the eastern states, keeping things dry for now. Heights normal over the north of the nation leading to dry season conditions being maintained.

A weak low offshore the NSW coast may bring a coastal shower. Another low moving into the southeast, bringing more showers and cold windy weather later in the day. Another high over WA keeping things dry over the region. Though another front is sitting offshore WA bringing windy weather and another burst of showers later in the day.

But this morning we had a very different look at this time period, with widespread rainfall over the east, with more moisture available being drawn across the country so watch this space, I do firmly believe there is more weather sitting out in the future, mid next week.


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