NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - FRIDAY JUNE 4TH 2021

Headlines.


  • Clearing over the east, though cloudy in parts this evening. But cold weather nights are set to return for the weekend.

  • Showers redeveloping over the southeast with fast moving fronts pushing through.

  • Warmer weather developing from Sunday over the mainland with a northwest flow.

  • Major weather event for the east early next week.

  • Another rain event for the west mid to late next week.

Cloudy skies about the east today with a weak front rolling through, which is helping to push the upper low off the east coast leading to easing conditions along the NSW coast today. That front has brought light showers to southeast SA, southern VIC and TAS today, with 10-20mm recorded in parts of TAS. 5-10mm in parts of VIC.


The showers will return this weekend with cold fronts gliding through the southeast and Bass Strait, bringing up the winds and producing more showers along the coastal areas of the southeast. A high to the north will build over eastern SA and into NSW on Sunday clearing skies further and lifting temperatures.


Warmer weather will develop next week with a fresh to strong northwest flow developing in advance of the front which is expected to still peak over the east and south of the nation bringing wild weather. Then a major temperature drop.


Another rain event will approach the west of the country with a front approaching and linking into some moisture over the Indian Ocean. This may bring solid falls from Wednesday but more likely the end of the week with some cooler air gradually filtering in.


National Satellite Imagery - Valid 2pm EST Friday June 4th 2021.

A large cloud band over northern Australia denotes where the cooler air is to the south and warmer air to the north. Also shows where the jet stream is running through the nation, being shunted north by high pressure ridging in over WA. Low cloud and showers, easing over the southeast with dry air moving in. Cloud over NSW is mainly fair weather, though a few showers are running along the NSW coast this afternoon in southerly winds.

Temperatures as at 3pm EST - Valid Friday 4th of June 2021

Temperatures this afternoon under the current synoptic scale is cool. We have seen a good deal of colder air move over from west to east this week with the passage of the upper low. That system is on by and high pressure ridging in is now going to clear the skies, allow the winds to drop out, so a cold night is on the way for the central and eastern parts of the nation. Out west, the weather is warming up in a northeast to easterly flow. Those conditions will continue for the coming weekend with frontal weather approaching the SWLD later in the weekend with further mild weather.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

Wet over the southern half of the nation, especially in the southeast and the west later in the run. The southeast rainfall totals carry a low confidence at this time.


GFS 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021

CMC 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021

Euro 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021

Model Discussion/Analysis

GFS 00z run - Valid Friday June 4th 2021 - 500mb/18000ft flow.

GFS 00z run - Valid Friday June 4th 2021 - MSLP/Precipitation distribution


Saturday June 5th 2021.

A wave passing through the southeast will bring another burst of cooler weather to southeast VIC and TAS. A ridge over much of the mainland leading to cold night and morning but sunshine to follow for the eastern and central inland. Heights coming down over northern Australia. A ridge moving east of WA will see a warming trend on Saturday

Showers developing for western VIC and TAS later in the day with another front moving through. These may extend into the lower SE of SA. Showers clearing the east coast with winds easing during the morning. Patchy rain about parts of NW Australia with an ongoing cloud band and fine weather for the west with late cloud and a shower possible about the Capes.

Sunday June 6th 2021

A front is on by to the east on Sunday morning with skies again clearing by afternoon over the SE. Another front approaching southwest WA will bring cloudy skies later in the day with wet weather at night. Upper high over the east and central areas continuing to control the weather for central and northern parts of Australia.

Showers overnight Saturday into Sunday will clear rapidly with a high pressure ridge moving into NSW and strengthening. A weak cold front to approach the southeast later on Sunday may freshen the winds and bring further showers into TAS. Showers developing for southwest WA with the approach of the series of strong cold fronts expected to bring the severe weather to the southeast early to mid next week. Cooler weather to follow about the southwest of the nation behind the front. Light falls expected.

Monday June 7th 2021

Strong cold front surging north through the Southern Ocean during Monday will start to increase the northwest wind profile over southern Australia with warmer temperatures expected. Fine weather persisting for most of the day for Australia, though the clouds will thicken over SA with wet weather approaching at night. Fine and seasonal over the north under a ridge.

Winds becoming gale force over southern Australia in advance of the front with a tight thermal and pressure gradient bringing the gales well inland. Damaging gusts are possible. Rain developing from the west during the afternoon over SA with that rain reaching western VIC and TAS at night. Moderate falls are possible. A few showers over the east QLD coast with light rainfall. Otherwise dry weather under the subtropical ridge with a strong centre southwest WA. This is a high amplitude pattern.

Tuesday June 8th 2021

Strong cold front turning into an upper low over SA and VIC with severe weather potential. Colder back through eastern WA and western SA with southerly winds rotating around this system and high pressure ridging in, keeping the west largely fine. Fine over the north and northeast with temperatures increasing, though becoming colder and wetter from the west through NSW and VIC.

Rain and thunderstorms moving through SA, into VIC southern NSW and TAS. The rain will reach the eastern parts of southern NSW later in the day. A warm and windy airmass over much of NSW and QLD with above average temperatures. Colder back in the west behind the system with showers, heavy at times over southern SA with small hail and thunder. Windy in the west with a low offshore, but dry for now. A few showers about the QLD coast, may be moderate at times in an unstable onshore northeast flow.

Wednesday June 9th 2021

Deep upper low producing a severe weather look for much of the southeast and east of the nation A very cold airmass extending north and east of this system through much of the east and into the north later in the day. Cold over the central interior with heights below average. Fine weather and seasonal temperatures over WA with high pressure starting to break down over the Bight.

Showers may thin out over the southeast if the low is positioned here on the GFS with strong southeasterly winds and cold weather with isolated showers, but other looks have been wetter with strong southwest winds and wintry showers and heavy snowfalls. Currently on this guide - showers and thunderstorms breaking out over central and eastern NSW and southern QLD with rain developing over the southeast of NSW into the ACT with moderate falls. Severe thunderstorms are possible in the east. Becoming colder from the west through NSW. Windy over in WA with cloud increasing later with rain and thunderstorms developing about the west coast. Fine over the north with temperatures beginning to reduce.

Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low slow moving over the southeast or east producing further severe weather throughout the region. Cold and drier air moving into the NT and reaching the Top End and Kimberly later. Another wave approaching WA will bring rain and storms through the region from early in the day. Warm ahead of that in eastern WA. Ridging a little further north in this run may lift the rainfall focus into NSW and dry out the SE, but that remains to be seen.

Deep upper low over the NE NSW with showers and storms. Rain wrapping around the south of the system with locally heavy falls along the NSW coast. Rain and storms over WA with gusty winds and that activity spreading inland. Fine at this stage through the southeast but this will continue to refine. Low forecast confidence remains.

Friday June 11th 2021

Deep upper low over southeast Australia beginning to weaken and contract south and east with a northwest flow aloft between the wave approaching from the west but an upper high may slow this progression down. Widespread rain and strong winds over WA under a significant wave of low pressure moving through with follow up broad scale westerly winds keeping the unsettled weather going. Cooler over the north.

Rain with heavy falls long the NSW coast beginning to shift south into central and eastern VIC, with strong and gusty cold easterly winds. Showers over WA with moderate falls about the coast. Cloudy with rain developing over the northwest of the nation, though light falls expected. Fine elsewhere for now with a high over the Bight but winds may freshen in far west SA with showers developing at night.

Monday June 14th 2021

A wavy flow continues in the wake of the low over the east moving away. This dominant zonal flow pattern may cut off into another low pressure system over WA, high pressure ridging through the south, but this is unlikely.

Rain over WA with widespread rain and thunderstorms, may drag in moisture under this scenario with a large cloud band developing. Dry over the southeast with a ridge but a few showers near the QLD central coast with a trough offshore. A weak front may bring showers to western TAS later in the day.

Lets look at the Euro for comparison as we do to crosscheck GFS with the flow pattern. Again it is very different and has diverged from GFS a lot this evening.


Monday June 7th 2021

Strong cold front approaching the SA coast will bring land gales into the southern and southeastern parts of the nation. A ridge to the north of the front will drag in warmer air from the interior. Cloud increasing over the south and central areas with rain developing at night. New ridge in the west keeping things dry.

Tuesday June 8th 2021

Upper low starts to form a little quicker than GFS over southwest VIC with widespread rain and storms to the east of this feature in the warm sector. Showers, hail and thunder with heavy falls for southeast SA with snowfalls down to low levels, possibly about the Flinders ranges. Fine in the far east and over QLD, with fine skies along the west coast. Showers for southern WA easing.

Wednesday June 9th 2021

Upper low moves to be over NSW with a deep low underneath this being the focal point for rain wrapping into the centre of circulation. Dry air rotating around the periphery of the system will keep the showers and storms isolated. Strong and gusty clockwise winds may reach gale force over land. Snowfalls developing for the southeast above 600m. Fine in the west at first but a new front approaching later will bring a batch of showers and storms.

Thursday June 10th 2021

Near stationary upper low over NSW will continue to drive severe weather potential through the SE with heavy rainfall, damaging winds, thunderstorms with hail and snowfalls. The deep low will be quite slow moving meaning some areas will continue to be battered and others left dry. A new front over WA bringing rain and thunderstorms later in the day once again.

Friday June 11th 2021

Upper low still slow moving and near stationary, however will start to move slowly southeast with showers and areas of rainfall over the southeast with locally heavy falls. Strong winds easing for SA with a small ridge. Strong winds and showers for the west with further frontal weather. Fine for QLD and the NT with ridging in place.

So again we wont know more about this event until Sunday or Monday at the earliest. The model waltz will continue.


Do you need more weather information for your part of the world? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for more details.


Next update - Weekend schedule, Saturday morning by 12pm.


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