NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - FRIDAY 2ND OF JULY 2021

Headlines


  • Rain and storms continue for eastern QLD and northeastern areas of NSW with the drier air now moving into much of NSW and subsidence/sinking air motion, contributing to a clearer day, in between systems. Heavy rainfall may increase over QLD tonight and through to Saturday night.

  • Cold weather sweeping through SA today with moderate rainfall now moving into the southwest and west of Victoria. All of a sudden, frequent showers with moderate rainfall may be on the cards for areas of southeast SA and southwest VIC with the low passing slowly to the south of this region.

  • Colder weather developing for the eastern inland with a the wind shifting into the west. A few showers possible over the southeastern inland with the cold air moving through but very light falls likely if anything. That is ahead of a settled week and a chance to dry out.

  • The focus of wet weather to come over WA after what will be a few days of sunshine and above average temperatures. Those systems impacting the west for the first half of next week may impact the south and east later next week.

National Satellite Picture - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.

Satellite shows the troughs over the east, with thick cloud and rainfall increasing over QLD with embedded thunderstorms. Drying out over NSW in sinking air between that trough and a large cold front passing through the southeast of SA. Cold air following that front near a low pressure system bringing a hail and thunder risk. Fine over WA and back through northern Australia under a high.

Strong cold front racing through the southeast bringing widespread showers with hail and thunder. Squalls also possible with a hazardous period of weather for stock in exposed coastal areas of SE SA and SW VIC with strong cold winds, frequent showers and hail. The weather is progressing east towards central VIC with light falls. The trough over NSW is beginning to lift out into QLD from NE NSW.

Trough deepening over the eastern inland with scattered thunderstorms forming within a rain band along the eastern inland of QLD with generally moderate falls unfolding. The rainfall coverage expected to increase further along the Central Coast, into the Central Highlands and the Wide Bay Burnett regions. Rain will ease from the southeast QLD region during Saturday morning.

Temperatures - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021

Warm over the east and north with more humidity and sunny skies following the trough, though spot the front with colder drier air through the southeast. Mild over the southwest with temperatures moving towards the seasonal average in sunshine. Cooler under rainfall through QLD.

That is quite the thermal gradient moving through the east with a sharp drop in temperature moving east through to southwest NSW and western VIC this afternoon with light rainfall confined to VIC at this stage. The colder air making it through the southeast inland overnight and into Saturday.

Radar - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021

Showers have been scattered and frequent through the southeast of SA with rainfall of 10-20mm for the coastal regions and rainfall ongoing. Rain moving into the southwest of VIC along the boundary with light falls. Scattered showers over Central VIC will continue to develop this evening as the cold front arrives. Lighter falls through inland areas SA.

Widespread showers turning to areas of rain with a few thunderstorms over the inland and offshore this afternoon. Showers and rain may be heavy at times tonight through the Wide Bay and developing further north through the Capricornia regions tomorrow with heavy falls extending inland as the trough lifts north into warmer and humid air.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.

Rainfall over the eastern parts of QLD with significant falls likely for parts of the eastern inland and coastal areas. Rainfall likely to be moderate over the southwest coast of Victoria and southeast of SA this weekend. Heavy falls possible for western TAS. Then the focus of the wet weather will move to the west with multiple fronts to move through the region over the course of the 10 days. Moderate to heavy falls are possible with each front as they move through. Humidity may return to the NT with morning showers next week.

00Z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021

Rainfall for the east clears out over the coming 24hrs so the rainfall totals there will drop off. A cold outbreak could also produce half a months worth of rainfall for the southwest of VIC and southeast SA. The rainfall over the southwest becoming heavy with 3-4 waves to pass through over the coming 10 days. Rain from one of those fronts will make it to the east during Thursday or Friday next week with moderate rainfall for inland areas.

00z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021

Reasonable agreement in CMC following the same path as GFS. Probably a little too light with the rainfall over the southwest of the nation for the coming 10 days. But certainly good to contrast and compare.

00z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021.

Rainfall over the east coast will move further east during the next 2 days with heavy falls still likely for the Wide Bay through to the Coalfields and Highlands. Note still possibly heavy rainfall for southeast of QLD and northeast NSW. Good rainfall for southwest VIC with some locations possibly getting up to 40mm and that does include southeast SA. Then the focus of the rain will move to the west coast of WA where heavy falls will start to build from Sunday and moderate falls inland.


Model Discussion and Analysis - Valid Friday July 2nd 2021


00z GFS Upper air pattern anomalies at 500mb/18000ft

00z GFS Surface pressure pattern with rainfall distribution at 6hrly interval.


Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Strong upper low over the southeast with a strong upper high over NZ, the high amplitude pattern the product of a positive SAM phase underway through the region. Ridging back through WA keeping skies settled and a trough over QLD finally being swept up by the cold front through the east and lifting eastwards.

Widespread showers, local hail and thunder for the southeast tending to areas of rain over southeast coastal areas of SA and southwest VIC with moderate falls. A cold dry airmass moving through NSW will drop temperatures. This upper level cold pool will invigorate the trough and bring more atmospheric dynamics to produce widespread rain with heavy falls as the moist trough lifts away to the east. Fine weather elsewhere with high pressure dominating the synoptic scale out west.

Sunday 4th of July 2021

Upper low slowly moving through Bass Strait with wintry weather for southern parts of VIC and over TAS. Strong upper high over NZ continuing to control conditions through the region. A trough moving off the east coast as the upper low to the south helps to push the system along. Ridging over WA beginning to break down a tad but moving east to SA and a new long wave trough on the approach to the west.

Rain and storms over QLD clearing early during Sunday with a drier airmass moving in from the west and south. A cold dry airmass over the southeast with an upper low continuing to move east through the region with widespread showers for coastal VIC as the low passes through. Easing conditions through SA. Fine weather through the remainder though a front bringing late rain to the west coast with some heavy falls later.

Monday 5th of July 2021

Upper trough pushing through NSW and clearing offshore, thanks to the upper high over NZ beginning to move east. A weak ridge pushing into the southeast with a strong upper low over the southwest with some wintry weather persisting.

Strong front over southwest WA with further rain and storms with strong and squally cold winds developing out of the west. The east clears out with morning frosts over the inland but sunny days with light winds. The fine weather extends almost everywhere else after morning showers clear the southeast as onshore winds ease.

Tuesday 6th of July 2021

Long wave parked over the southwest of WA with two upper lows offshore driving windy wintry weather. A weak ridge over the southeast continuing to move east and southeast. A zonal flow developing over much of the nation with the flow pattern beginning to pick up pace.

A series of cold fronts continuing to drive wintry weather over the southeast with gusty westerly winds driving showers with moderate falls. Fine almost everywhere else under the high with that centre moving steadily east. Frosty nights giving way to fine weather with temperatures on the climb over the southeast of SA during the day in a northerly flow.

Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Upper low deepening over the western Bight with a wintry airmass continuing to drive inclement weather, possibly severe weather over the southwest. Ridging over the east continuing to move further east, sending the flow pattern into the northwest over much of the nation.

High pressure over the southeast of the nation sending the nation into that northwest flow, with a warmer trend from mid week after a cold set of nights, frost possible again Wednesday morning. Fine weather over much of the interior and back over the northwest inland. The wet weather with severe weather potential is sitting over the southwest of the nation with a deep low parked just offshore with a few fronts rotating through the region.

Thursday 8th of July 2021

Large scale upper low and long wave starting to advance east with a ridge offshore the east coast. That sets up a fast flow pattern through the upper atmosphere. Strong winds developing at the surface as well through SA and VIC. Cold and wintry through the southwest with a weak ridge offshore easing perhaps the wintry elements.

Deep low moving through the Bight beginning to adopt and east southeast track. A leading front bringing rain and strong winds to SA later in the day, at this stage the falls are still being analysed as being coastal and light but this may continue to change. High pressure out east directing showers onto the QLD coast mostly light falls. Humidity increasing over the tropics with showers, mainly morning, possible about the NT. Conditions briefly clearing over WA.

Friday 9th of July 2021

Strong long wave passing into the central and eastern parts of the nation with a strong and gusty flow beginning to impact the eastern and southern inland. Ridging offshore the east coast continuing to control weather for the east coast. Another wave approaching WA with more windy wintry weather developing.

Rain breaking out over inland NSW and VIC with the heavier falls reserved for where the model is identifying the better moisture profile, but again this may change as we track through next week and we can get real data in real time tracking this feature. So this will change, but that is likely to be the next opportunity for rainfall for the southeast and east. Another front coming through WA will see showers develop during the day with more windy weather. Fine elsewhere after morning showers over the NT and QLD coasts, but drier air will move in through the northern and eastern inland of the nation.

Monday 12th of July 2021

Fast flow pattern with multiple waves with bursts of wintry weather, moderate rainfall and cold temperatures. This applies for most of the southern states. Upper high over the north of the nation, all the hallmarks of a negative SAM phase and a traditional winter time weather pattern in July.

Strong to gale force west or northwest winds over the south with showers, moderate falls and hail and thunder. Windy in the east at first but the rainfall spreading in later in the day with moderate to heavy falls over the slopes in VIC and NSW later and maybe falling as snow. A belt of high pressure over the northern parts of the nation will keep things seasonal with dry air and southeast to easterly winds.


Need more weather analysis? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org


It is the weekend for many, so Saturday/Sunday (in the absence of full on severe weather) I do one of these per day on the weekend, back to two a day through the weekdays. That also applies to my holiday schedule when I will be allowed to travel freely like every one else ;)


More updates through the evening on the state based events and another national weather picture coming up tomorrow afternoon.


Thanks for your support.

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