NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - PM EDITION - FRIDAY 18TH OF JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Active weather over the southeast with low pressure offshore NSW.

  • Showers easing over SA and VIC as high pressure noses in.

  • Fine weather and warming up over the west with a northerly flow developing around that same high.

  • A major rainfall event still likely to unfold over the course of next week.

A gusty afternoon with areas of light rain through NSW tending heavy across the southeast as a low pressure trough rolls over the southeast. Also some heavy falls coming into East Gippsland of Victoria with gusty conditions. Showers further west through Central VIC and over SA clearing tonight.


Severe weather warnings are in force for damaging winds and heavy surf along the NSW coast for the coming 24hrs at least as the low rolls up the NSW coast.


Fine and warmer weather coming into the west with a high pressure system, moving east of the state, sending the winds into the east or northeast tomorrow and then a northwest flow strengthening tomorrow night ahead of a complex change moving through during Sunday, setting the stage for a dynamic week of weather for large parts of the country.


Widespread areas of rainfall across most states next week, with mixed blessings in the rainfall outcomes with some not wanting any rainfall and many wanting lots and lots.


National Satellite Imagery - Valid Friday June 18th 2021

Deep low pressure system off the southeast NSW coast with strong winds and showers moving up the NSW coast and areas of rain on the western periphery of the low pressure system over Gippsland moving north. A broad cloud band developing from the northwest with a jet stream bringing light rainfall to the outback. A cold front can be seen well off WA.

A deep low is off the NSW coast with widespread showery weather over the region, with rain periods over the eastern part of Gippsland. Rain could be heavy at times in the east of Victoria tonight. Some showers will extend to the southeast inland of NSW tonight and into Saturday. Drier air training into the south and southeast.

Temperatures - Valid Friday June 18th 2021

Hot weather over the northern territory today easing from the southeast with a burst of drier air moving in from the south and east during the day. Mild over the east though cooler the further southeast you go where clouds are increasing. Mild over the west with sunny skies under high pressure.

Cold through the southeast and east with onshore winds driving showers and windy weather throughout the region. A cold airmass is moving north throughout the region west of a surface low sitting offshore. That is driving a cold airmass into the east.

Radar - Valid Friday June 18th 2021

Widespread showers over the east with a trough moving up the NSW coast. Showers back through eastern Victoria with moderate to heavy falls over the Gippsland Ranges. Some minor flooding is in place.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 18th 2021

Major rainfall moving through WA this weekend will spread through the southern and eastern interior over the course of next week. That will be the focus of the weather coming in over the course of next week.

GFS 00z Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday June 18th 2021

CMC 00z Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday June 18th 2021

Euro 00z Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday June 18th 2021


Model discussion and analysis


GFS 00z 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Friday June 18th 2021

GFS 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and rainfall distribution - Valid Friday June 18th 2021


Saturday 19th of June 2021

Low pressure sitting off the east coast with a trough over the western inland of NSW producing cold weather and a southerly wind. High pressure moving into the Great Australian Bight with settled skies. Upper low over WA moving eastwards.

Showers and gales for the east coast of NSW with a low sitting offshore. Showers easing for southeast Victoria with a cold airmass moving east. High pressure moving into the east with a gusty breezy day. Upper trough over the inland with high cloud and showery air. A cold front moving into the southwest with a cold front moving closer.

Sunday 20th of June 2021

Upper low moving further away from the east but a trough hanging back over central areas of the nation causing colder conditions and some cloudy skies. Upper high over the southeast but the big weather system is about to approach from the southwest with a cold front developing over the SWLD with gusty conditions.

Upper low over the east and a surface low moving further east bringing gusty winds and showers to the coastal areas. A large high over the country the dominant feature with light winds and clear skies. A cold front approaching the southwest will bring the next chance of strong winds and showers for the SWLD but also herald the start of the big rain event moving east.

Monday 21st of June 2021

Deep upper low over southwest WA with a cold severe weather event possible. Upper low over the northeast of NSW with a trough hanging back over NSW/QLD. Upper high over the southeast keeping things dry and warmer after cold start. An upper low over the east with a spike in unsettled weather along the east coast.

Large rainband emerging on a trough extending from the Indian Ocean with a deep low over the SWLD producing severe weather over the region. Some chance of damaging winds and heavy rainfall for the SWLD. Showers increasing over the east coast with a trough and upper trough combining in onshore winds. The ridge holds over the southeast of the nation.

Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

Deep upper low moving over SWLD with a secondary low sitting offshore the south coast. A strong upper high over the east, kicking out the upper trough from QLD. Heights coming up over the NT with warmer weather expected over northern areas.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms moving through into the eastern WA into SA. Warm northerly winds developing in SA with a cloudy sky moving in from the west. Showers increasing over the east coast once again with an unstable easterly flow, but easing later as the trough moves away. Dry throughout the remainder and seasonal temperatures.

Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Deep upper low over SA with a strong high in the east leading to a severe weather look for SA with a low underneath. Upper heights coming up over the north and east and a new ridge building southwest of the nation. The high amplitude pattern will persist for a number of days.

Rain and storms covering much of SA on Wednesday with moderate falls. A cold a squally southerly wind to follow with a further cold front to move over eastern WA. Cloud increasing over NSW and VIC with rain at night in the west. Showers along the east coast with onshore winds. A high pressure system off the southwest coast with conditions drying through WA. Showers over northern parts of the NT with humidity rising, mainly through the morning.

Thursday 24th of June 2021

Upper low over SA with a severe weather look. High pressure offshore the east coast with a clear skies. Upper high off the southwest coast with clearer skies and cold weather developing. Upper trough over WA leading to more cloudy skies.

Rain and storms moving through QLD, NSW and VIC with moderate to heavy falls confined at this stage to NSW and VIC. A strong and gusty westerly flow developing on top of a low through SA with showery weather developing, local hail and squalls. Showers over the Top End mainly in the morning. Showers along the east coast may become thundery with a trough sitting offshore.

Friday 25th of June 2021

Upper low moving east into Victoria with a cold airmass, widespread winter weather developing over the east. High pressure over both sides of the nation with the west feeling the benefits of the upper ridge, while the east becomes colder and cloudy.

Another cloud band developing through QLD on a trough will see rain and thunderstorms developing. Showers and thunderstorms rotating around in organised bands over the southeast of the nation near low pressure with widespread falls continuing. High pressure over the west of the nation bringing settled conditions and cold nights. Showers, mainly morning over the Top End with an easterly flow.

Monday 28th of June 2021

Large trough moving over the east with a cold airmass and widespread showers continuing over the southeast with this look. Upper high over the west with clearer conditions, but a zonal flow persisting over much of the nation.

Large high over the continent bringing up the chance of frost for the inland but clear days for now. Dry for most of the inland areas. Showers' over the southeast with snowfalls in a cold and gusty southwest to westerly flow. A trough over in the west with showers developing along the west coast with the approach of another front. If this verifies.


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