• Active trough moving through SE Australia.

  • Heavy rainfall threat for SE NSW and Gippsland

  • Unsettled through SE QLD and NE NSW

  • Warming up over the west

An active trough is expected to sweep the southeast of the nation bringing a band of rain and some thunder to southeast SA and western VIC this morning before spreading further east and north today.

Widespread showers moving through the southeast of SA this morning with rain extending through into western Victoria with a colder southwest change. Some thunder has been observed along this front. May 10th 2021

Satellite imagery shows the front standing up with an upper low on it's back side, moving northeast from the front today. The front will continue to move east taking the bulk of the rain with it. The upper low will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms along it's path today into western NSW.

Zoomed in satellite pictures of SE Australia May 10th 2021

The national picture is pretty quiet away from the southeast with a broad ridge in the west keeping things nice and clear and dry today. Over much of northern Australia, the dry season has kicked in so it should be cloud free, away from FNQ. Otherwise the cloud will develop over the east today with the day time heating process and a trough nearby triggering showers and some thunderstorms along the GDR.

Satellite imagery for the nation - May 10th 2021

The rainfall for the next 10 days is still LOW CONFIDENCE with a raft of solutions on the board every time the models update, particularly for this weekend. For now the bulk of the rain is looking like it will be over the south and east of the nation during the coming 4 days, with heavy falls for SE Australia possible. Perhaps some scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern QLD in the coming two days. And showers developing for the SWLD in WA with a weak frontal passage. Isolated showers over the eastern Top End in onshore winds, more scattered about Cape York and FNQ.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Euro model - Valid May 10th 2021


The overall flow pattern has not changed for the week ahead, with the bulk of the wet weather sitting in the first half of this week for eastern Australia. That is thanks to an upper low that will be slowing moving east over the coming 48hrs. The system is not as energetic as the last one during this time last week. But it will have a similar impact of pulling in moisture from the east and ramming into the south coast and as well as Gippsland.

Scattered showers are possible along the track of the upper low with small hail and thunder possible, mainly for Central and Southern inland NSW.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector through NE NSW and SE QLD will continue over the coming days, some of those storms could be strong. The risk is also for the Herbert and Burkedin coastline as well where an upper trough is also lingering.

Showers will contract back to coastal VIC during tonight and tomorrow and clear from SE SA as winds veer southeast to easterly and ridge returns.

Showers will develop for the SWLD during the middle of the week, with a weak front glancing the region. This will bring a brief burst of windy showery weather to the region with mainly light falls.

That front will be the catalyst for pushing out the upper low later this week in the east. As the front moves into the Great Australian Bight, it will knock the ridge further east and allowing the skies to clear over VIC and NSW, briefly!

That front will roll through the SE of Australia with a lot more strength than in SW WA with a band of showers, small hail and thunder Friday into Saturday. Snowfalls will redevelop over Alpine areas under this scenario.

GFS 12z 500mb flow pattern (18000ft) - showing the wavy flow over the southern ocean with the northern most parcels of that unstable air coming through coastal areas. It is becoming more mobile over the next week. Ridging keeping the rest of Australia dry and complication free.

GFS relative humidity at 925mb or 700m above our heads showing the impact of the front Thursday shoving the easterly intrusion of moisture out the door and a return to westerly winds bringing in the weather to the southeast. Dry over the north away from Cape York.

The overall pattern is set to become more active as we get into the next 10 days of weather beyond this time, to wrap up the month with a pattern flip developing. Wet weather building in the west, the east will warm up and become windy. Then more rainfall as we end the month in the east and to kick off June.

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