NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - FRIDAY 7TH MAY EVENING EDITION.

HEADLINES


  • Rainfall returns to western South Australia today

  • Rainfall in the east easing as a low washes out over the Tasman Sea.

  • Drying out over Western Australia.

  • Cold fronts to return to SE Australia from tomorrow and into next week

  • And what is the talk of rainfall for southern QLD and northern NSW?


Finally some rainfall has returned to inland SA with a pressure trough kicking off patchy rain and quite a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of those storms would likely be delivering moderate rainfall totals, with the relative humidity and precipitable water values marginal for heavy rainfall totals at this stage.


Satellite imagery of thick cloud and rain with a few storms moving through the Northwest Pastoral districts of SA with a few moderate falls in the middle of nowhere. Valid 5pm CST May 7th 2021

The national satellite shows the cloud streaming in from the northwest of the nation with the last of that expected to cut off and be projected back through to the west as an easterly flow develops over Western Australia with new high pressure developing.


Meanwhile in the east, the cloud and showers are starting to decrease over the eastern seaboard, with the low pressure responsible now on the journey further south while washing out and opening up into a wave of low pressure as it approaches the westerly wind belt.


National Satellite imagery - Valid 7th May 2021 at 530pm EST.

With the long wave trough coming into southeast Australia over the coming few days, the wet weather will now increase for areas of Tasmania, Victoria and SE South Australia, in line with the westerly winds. Some moderate falls are possible over the coming days in the southeast.


500mb flow pattern (18000ft) over Australia for the next 2 weeks, showing multiple fronts and pockets of cold air and upper lows moving through southern and eastern Australia with the rainfall chances increasing potentially for some areas. GFS 00Z valid May 7th 2021.

Rainfall has been all over the place for inland QLD and NSW over the past 24 hours in modelling and that continues tonight with a LOW confidence forecast to continue. Once we get a better handle on the frontal weather over southern Australia through the outlook, this will greatly increase the confidence in what is propelled northeastwards behind each system. IF cold air can be drawn north into the eastern inland, then rainfall chances would be increasing as we go through the outlook. But it is WAY too early to tell.


Better clarity comes on Sunday night if not Monday.


GFS has gone all in on rainfall for the NE of NSW and this is cause for concern if it does verify, as flooding would return under this scenario, but I STRESS this will likely be gone in the next run later this evening. More information can be found in another post for NSW and QLD.

The latest Euro is more conservative and has been for the past 2 runs showing the rainfall over inland QLD and northern NSW. There is some merit in the idea of colder air sparking rainfall over QLD and NSW during the later stages of next week or into the next weekend. We will wait and see.


Euro 00z accumulated rainfall May 7th 2021

A modest amount of shower activity is forecast for southeastern areas from Saturday through to next Thursday with moderate falls about the exposed areas to a westerly and heavy falls for western Tasmania (more in the southeast posts).


WA dries out, that rainfall over the outback has already fallen and temperatures are set to go well above the average over the coming week while the east is colder than normal for the majority of the week.


Western Australia dries out and warms up over the coming week with little weather to talk about and a very dry airmass in place. Perhaps some coastal showers about the south coast at times but really few and far between.


Temperature anomalies for the next week over WA - GFS 18z run May 7th 2021.

Temperatures in the east not surprisingly, cooler than normal for the week with widespread showers and gusty conditions at times. Inland frost will return from mid next week as winds turn calm, so there could be some severe frosts about inland NSW and northeast VIC in response to the colder air, and clearer skies with light winds.


Temperature anomalies for the southeast with onshore winds and showers continuing. Euro 00z Ensemble May 7th 2021.

The next batch of rainfall due in for the west coast of WA which then spreads east across the country is not really expected until the last 10 days of the month leading into a wetter start to June. Some heavy falls will return to the west coast of WA with the next sequence following the warm weather of this week, so make the most of it.


When the west goes wet and cooler, the east will dry out and warm up with a northerly flow ahead of the next batch of rain towards the last week of the month.


The signals bode better for SA and western NSW at this stage. Parts of inland QLD will continue to miss out on the heavier falls while the NT and Kimberly remains dry and stable and warm with decreasing humidity over the next week.


Climate forecast was updated today - you can find that in the climate section.


Weather Matters with Karl Lijnders - Temperature Outlook for next 2 weeks Valid May 7 2021

Weather Matters - Rainfall Outlook for the next two weeks - Valid May 7th 2021

The next update due Saturday.

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