Cold front and upper low moving through VIC and into NSW this evening.
Scattered showers and storms in southern NSW.
Further sunny warm days for the north and west.
As we have been tracking the last few days, a front has now begun to move further east through VIC and into NSW this afternoon and a cold upper low has begun to move further north about to cross into southern inland NSW overnight. That will begin to veer the winds over southern NSW from the west, through to the north and then into moist easterly flow tomorrow as it begins to slowly meander east and northeast.
That will set the stage for a very wet day on Tuesday for the South Coast of NSW and Gippsland in Victoria.
Euro Rainfall - Next 4 days Valid May 10th 2021 18z Run.
Latest update below this to compare.
This is the corresponding GFS model run from this afternoon - Valid May 10th 2021 18z
The placement of the upper low will determine where the heaviest of the rainfall will develop over southeast Australia, whether more is concentrated in East Gippsland or more is located over the South Coast of NSW. This will become clearer overnight and Tuesday as the low begins to set up camp.
GFS has the heaviest rainfall with this lead event over the VIC/NSW border with the region likely to see 100-200mm of rainfall. GFS 00z Valid May 10th 2021
Euro is very similar in placement with widespread 20-50mm of rainfall for the region with 100-200mm in a narrow strip near the NSW/VIC border. Euro 00z run Valid May 10th 2021
Meanwhile the showery weather over SA has netted reasonable rainfall overnight and throughout today, some areas getting their best rainfall in months. That means parts of SA has received widespread falls of 5-15mm in recent days. Very welcome and in line with modelling some weeks ago for that shift through this period.
Victoria has seen reasonable rainfall through Monday with that band of rain now shifting east slowly. Some thunderstorms have developed over parts of northwest Victoria and into southern NSW. Some areas picking up 10-20mm today which is welcome.
The national satellite picture does show a fairly quiet day across the nation although some convection has begun to fire late this afternoon after being mainly offshore about the islands through the day with heavy falls about.
Upper level moisture can be seen being drawn south over Cape York and streaming into the Coral Sea. A large cloud band is likely to form mainly offshore before scooting off to NZ during mid week.
Otherwise some cloud off WA associated with an upper trough will stay out there, with little rainfall to speak of from that. A larger cold front can be seen well offshore towards the west, this is likely to run into a strong upper ridge and weaken, though will likely move the first centre of high pressure further east, thus bringing a slight change during mid week to the SWLD with showers and drizzle periods.
The Top End is relatively clear as is the Kimberly down the guts into central Australia.
National Satellite - Valid Monday Moy 10th 2021 12pm EST
The pattern for the coming week is again largely unchanged this afternoon with modelling still somewhat trying to pin the upper low on the forecast chart which is very difficult. It will be the system to watch for the coming days. Otherwise it is all about that high pressure system over WA, ridging back through central Australia and into western QLD bringing clear sunny warm days.
The other big story is temperatures over the coming week, with a significant signal for cooler than normal weather for parts of eastern Australia and the west and north remaining well above average.
Another front, which will bring that drizzly showery weather to WA mid week will scoot across to the east during Thursday and Friday, will pick up some strength and send in another surge of colder air into the southeast. That has the potential to bring snow flurries to Alpine areas with some light falls over Tasmania as well.
Euro 00z run at 500mb showing the flow pattern at 18000ft, can track that lead upper low over the southeast the major weather event this week, ahead of a front which brings a moderate burst of cold air to the southeast this weekend, then a front approaching WA later the period. Valid May 10th 2021
With that colder air moving north and east over SA, VIC, NSW and QLD, that will lead to the frost risk increasing for large areas of eastern Australia during the weekend and early next week with some risk of severe frosts becoming an issue for tender crops. So farmer be aware that frost risks are increasing in the outlook. My forecast charts will be issued once we get closer.
Temperature anomalies for the period May 14th-19th 2021. Euro 00z May 9th 2021.
There will be a pattern flip come next week with that large high pressure system over the Bight coming into the east with a drier picture and warmer temperatures. This will open the door for rain to redevelop over WA.
Over the north we are dry and sunny with showers restricted to Cape York with local thunder where moisture is deeper and onshore winds are more unstable. That moisture may drift west bringing more showers to the NE of the NT.
Precipitable Water values next 10 days - Valid May 10th 2021.
Next update Tuesday AM.
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