NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - WEDNESDAY JUNE 9TH 2021

Headlines


  • Widespread showers, hail and thunder through the southeast with severe weather warnings in multiple states.

  • Low level snow is still expected for parts of NSW above 600m

  • Severe weather developing for southwest WA with a low approaching.

  • Dry and cooler weather spreading north through QLD and into the NT.

Wild and cold weather moving through southeast Australia overnight and into Wednesday with moderate rainfall observed throughout the region. Further thunderstorms and hail were reported overnight through NSW and this will continue through Wednesday.


Snowfalls have been reported in southern NSW in Cooma through the Central Tablelands and parts of the Northern Tablelands. The snow will increase during the coming 24 hours with some moderate accumulation possible away from Alpine areas.


Severe weather warnings are in place for VIC for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. This may extend to the South Coast of NSW through Wednesday.


Severe weather warnings for parts of SWLD with damaging winds expected with the approach of a low towards the coast. A leading front will also bring the risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms later.


Drier air will surge north through the southern parts of QLD into the NT with a gusty southeasterly shift expected over the coming days.


National Satellite - Valid Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Deep lows on both sides of the nation, an upper low over NSW and VIC beginning to deepen further today with very cold air with snowfalls developing. A deep surface low off WA bringing gale force winds with a band of rain moving over the west coast moving southeast today. Fine and cold through central areas with a ridge developing and rain clearing the NSW and QLD coast later today.

A deep upper low is rotating through the southeast and is bringing very cold air to NSW and VIC. Rain is wrapping in from the east in a milder intrusion of air over the southern parts of VIC and this will work warmer air into SA and western NSW later with showers and rain periods. The cold air will deepen over NSW with snowfalls developing and becoming more widespread about the Tablelands during the coming 12 hours and persisting overnight.

Deep surface low approaching WA with a band of thick cloud along a cold front bringing patchy rainfall. Winds becoming gale force as the low nears the SWLD this afternoon with severe weather warnings in force.

Temperatures - Valid Wednesday 9th of June 2021

A very cold airmass has surged north overnight bringing temperatures below 10C through the southern 2/3rds of the nation and that air is expected to surge further north today. It is cold enough for snow above 600m in NSW at the moment, but precip is scattered though will increase later.

A very cold airmass is in place with snow now likely to fall with any showers/rain areas over the Great Dividing Range above 600m.

Radar - Valid Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Widespread showers over northeast NSW and southeast QLD along the boundary of cold air surging in moving east. Some thunder has been reported in this band. Clumps of showers through the southeast inland with local hail and snowfalls possible under this above 600m.

A deep low offshore is propelling a cold front into the west coast with a band of rain moving in, with strong to gale force winds. The bulk of the torrential rain with the low will stay offshore with light falls extending inland.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 9th of June 2021

GFS Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 9th of June 2021

CMC Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 9th of June 2021


Euro Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Model Analysis and discussion


GFS 12z run 500mb/18000ft flow pattern

GFS 12z run MSLP and Precipitation Distribution.


Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Deep upper low over Goulburn with widespread severe weather developing over southeast Australia with gale force winds, heavy rainfall and low level snowfalls. Cold airmass moving north through northern Australia. A deep low approaching WA bringing another severe weather event with gales and heavy rainfall. Ridging over the central parts of the nation keeping things stable.

Widespread showers, areas of rain with thunderstorms, low level snow and scattered hail. Damaging winds developing over the southeast and southwest with two deep surface lows. Over central and northern Australia, dry, with cold temperatures.

Thursday 10th of June 2021

Deep upper low over the Barrington Tops with a surface low decoupled from the upper low producing wild weather over the southeast with further low level snow. Low pressure at the surface under a strong long wave off WA bringing further wild weather but easing later, thanks to a high pressure ridge blocking that low moving east. A blocking pattern developing over NZ.

Deep low moving south through NSW, position to be determined, will drive more wild weather over parts of southeast Australia with further low level snowfalls. Showers decreasing for western VIC though more moderate to heavy rainfall for eastern and central VIC is possible with a wrap around moisture source. Showers moving through WA easing, as the main dynamic forcing pulling away to the south with the deep low racing southeast. Winds will ease later. Fine elsewhere and seasonally cool.

Friday 11th of June 2021

Upper low weakening over southeast NSW though a deep surface low could bring more severe weather to eastern VIC and southeast NSW. Cold air in the upper atmosphere is moderating on Friday. Another wave moving into WA with another round of strong winds and heavy rainfall possible. Blocking pattern over NZ continues.

Rain, with locally heavy falls over southeast VIC and NSW with that activity accompanied by strong to gale force southeast to southerly winds. Showers easing over SE NSW later in the day as winds veer westerly. Showers increasing for SWLD of WA with the chance of thunderstorms and moderate falls possible. High pressure over central Australia drying out the remainder of the eastern inland with temperatures slowly recovering after very cold nights inland.

Saturday 12th of June 2021

Weakening upper low offshore VIC moving slowly southeast due to the blocking pattern over NZ. An upper trough moving through WA will move into SA during the day with the chance of some patchy rain and cloudy skies. A zonal flow over much of the nation with heights below average, though they are coming up over the north.

Showers over southeast VIC starting to clear a little quicker with the rain easing over eastern TAS also clearing at night. A weak trough moving into SA with patchy rain and thick cloud moving east. A weak flow pattern following over WA with a few showers about. Otherwise mostly dry under a ridge through central and eastern and northern parts of Australia with temperatures perhaps back to seasonal values after a cold start.

Sunday 13th of June 2021

Upper low over the southern Tasman, finally resolved and having little influence on Australia's weather. A new upper trough moving through eastern SA into VIC and NSW bringing the next chance of cloudy skies and patchy rainfall. A weak trough offshore QLD could start to be invigorated by the approach of the upper trough from the west. Zonal flow over much of the nation with a stronger front offshore WA on the approach, linking into this flow.

Cloudy over the east with patchy rainfall through SA, moving into western NSW and VIC. Moisture values are quite low so not expecting widespread rainfall with this event. Patchy rain breaking out over QLD with that rain increasing later or at night with the trough coming in from the west. Winds turning northwesterly over the SWLD with a few showers developing Generally fine after a cold start over the east and central areas.

Monday 14th of June 2021

Upper low, weak, over VIC moving into southern NSW with cloudy skies and cooler weather. Moisture values are not overly impressive with this system. Weak upper trough over QLD, sitting offshore. A weak cold front moving through south of WA. Zonal flow still in place across much of central Australia acting as a conveyor belt for the westerly moving systems to the south.

Weak troughs over the east with patchy rainfall from QLD through to NSW and offshore VIC and SA. Colder air may trigger some coastal thunder. But moisture is limited at this time.

The best chance of rainfall will be over eastern QLD with an upper trough and over the south coast of WA with another trough advancing east. But watch this space as this will refine further.

Tuesday 15th of June 2021

Messy synoptic being analysed with several upper lows over the southeast and south of the nation while the zonal flow continues to the north. High pressure ridging in to WA with clearing skies. Temperatures near seasonal over the north but likely below average elsewhere.

Upper low bringing showers and storms to southern SA moving east during the day. Showers easing over QLD with the upper trough lifting out. A coastal trough moving east of NSW may bring showers and coastal thunder. Otherwise cold and unstable with isolated showers for many parts.

Friday 18th of June 2021

Troughs organising into a focussed area of low pressure come Friday the 18th with a deep system nearing Adelaide with a cold shift expected over the east and south. A high to the south of WA keeping things mostly dry. A zonal flow over the tropics continues with a fresh easterly flow.

Rain developing once again through the southeast with a gusty wind regime. Some moderate falls for SA and that will move into VIC and NSW. Cloudy with patchy rainfall possible through the outback with light falls. A coastal trough off NSW bringing showers and storms, moving east. Fine back through northern and southwestern Australia with higher air pressure. But this is 10 days out and will likely change.


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