NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - WEDNESDAY JUNE 3RD 2021

Headlines


  • Rain breaks out over the east on Wednesday.

  • Warming up over the west with a high strengthening.

  • What about the rain and storm event next week for the east?

  • When will rain return to the west?

A decent amount of shower and thunderstorm activity has developed overnight, in response to the trough and upper low moving into more moisture that is pouring in from the north and northeast ahead of this system. The coverage of rainfall will continue to increase today with the cloud cover set to thicken further.


With this pattern flip underway, the west is dry, the skies are clearing for the remainder of the south coast today bordering SA as wind turn calm and stable. Easterly winds developing means, things will be getting much warmer over coming days.


Next week, still a dynamic weather event likely to unfold out across southern and eastern Australia with heavy rainfall, strong winds and potential for low level snowfalls across many parts of the east and southeast. Also the potential for an east coast low as well, plenty happening on the charts.


While the east is getting pummeled by the large area of low pressure, the west will welcome warmer days, windy weather and rainfall likely to develop along the west coast with frontal weather standing up in the Indian Ocean ahead of the next wave.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021.

Showers and thunderstorms are breaking out along a trough over eastern SA and western NSW and southwest QLD. The activity is expected to increase further today and spread east. Cloud over the east and south ahead of this is stable with little rainfall. Cloud free over the remainder, though high cloud still streaming in from the northwest over central WA with the jet stream but high pressure is keeping things dry and stable.

A closer look at the showers and thunderstorms breaking out over parts of eastern SA and western NSW with the unstable air riding into the moisture streaming in from the NT and western QLD, drawing into the trough as it rides east. Rainfall coverage will pick up over the next 12 hours.

Radar shows not much rainfall out of the cloud cover over the east and southeast with the ridging and dry air still in place but moisture is improving as the trough rides into the moisture coming in from the north and west ahead of the feature.


Radar - Valid 6am EST Wednesday 2nd of June 2021.

Some locations through western NSW and eastern SA has received 5-10mm so far since midnight.

Temperatures are quite warm through the NT and that extends into western QLD and into northwest NSW, associated with that warmer push of air in a northwest flow. So this port of warm, humid air will be lifted by the colder unstable air as the trough moves eastwards in coming days. Cooler over the southwest and southeast this morning but it is hard to find frost this morning over Australia with a much milder airmass. Temperatures will warm up above average in many areas today over the east and southeast.


Temperatures as of 6am EST - Wednesday June 2nd 2021.

A closer look at the warm humid air coming into the east, via the upper northwest flow with the unstable air moving east through SA. A very warm airmass will clash into the cooler air that is riding through northern SA this morning and further rain and thunderstorms will break out today and Thursday.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday June 2nd 2021.

Low confidence forecast with the stronger upper low next week bringing widespread rainfall, but the heaviest falls are still up for debate and will chop and change.

CMC 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021.

GFS 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021.

Model Discussion and Analysis

GFS 12z Run - 500mb/18000ft flow chart - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021

GFS MSLP and Rainfall distribution


Wednesday 2nd of June

Upper low moving through eastern SA and running into better moisture levels coming into NSW and QLD from the NT. This warmer air will clash with the colder upper levels and this will be the focus for unsettled weather in Australia today. Ridging in the west and east keeping skies mostly clear for now and dry. A weak front approaching BIght waters is moving rapidly east.

Rain and thunderstorms developing over the east, becoming more widespread this afternoon and evening, with moderate falls through NSW and southwest QLD. Storms unlikely to be severe. Showers contracting east through SA and clearing tonight. A few showers possible about the east coast of QLD north of Cairns and offshore Darwin and the Tiwis this morning. Dry elsewhere.

Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Upper low gets a kick along from the shortwave passing over VIC and TAS throughout Thursday. Ridging out west strengthening and keeping skies clear. Heights and a zonal flow over the tropics remaining near normal for this time of year, though a trough hanging back through the inland could bring more cloud via the jet stream.

Rain and thunderstorms ending from west to east through NSW and QLD with clearer and cooler air to follow. A low may form along the trough as the front catches up to the upper feature, offshore NSW. Where that forms, could bring a burst of heavier rainfall in the coming 36hrs. A few showers over southeast Australia with a series of shortwaves passing through, but light falls for now. Fine over WA with clear skies and winds turning easterly.

Friday 4th of June 2021.

Upper low is absorbed into the shortwave in the Tasman with a colder southerly flow building along the east coast. Ridging becoming flattened with the wavy flow over the Southern Ocean beginning to stand up and become more unstable. Ridging weakening over the NT.

A large high controlling much of the country's weather with the long wave moving offshore the NSW coast with strong southerly winds and showers as well as large swells. Westerly winds to the south of the nation starting to move north, but too far south to have major influence, though showers may develop over western TAS. Cloud increasing once again over parts of Central WA with a little rain about.

Saturday 5th of June 2021.

Zonal flow becoming more established over the southern ocean and is moving north during the weekend. Ridging over the southern parts of the nation will be flattened further and weakened by this northward movement of the westerly winds. The long wave in the Tasman Sea will move eastwards. Heights over the Top End coming down with cooler weather and drier moving in.

The first in the series of fronts over the coming week clips the southeast of the nation with showers and strong winds for southern VIC and TAS, with a few showers over SE SA. Dry for the rest of the nation for now with a high moving east. Cold starts over the inland may produce morning frost but fine weather to follow. Another front will clip the southwest of the nation with a few showers over the far south of the SWLD. Cloudy skies still moving over inland WA and possibly into the southern NT.

Sunday 6th of June 2021.

Weak front that moved through Saturday is on by with a ridge moving over the east on Sunday. This will get a push along by a major long wave, the strongest of the year, moving north through the Great Australian Bight. Otherwise heights still below average with a weak upper low over western QLD, but no moisture means dry skies.

The high in the east begins to move further towards the Tasman Sea, sending the winds into a broad scale northwesterly over the south of the nation, typical of winter. These winds may become gale force later in the day over southeast Australia, with increasing cloud for SA. Showers will develop along the south coast of WA with the tip of this wave passing by. Fine elsewhere, with sunny skies and light winds under high pressure. Just a few showers possible the QLD coast near Mackay northwards and over the NE Top End.

Monday 7th of June 2021

Strong long wave moving further north and east, and an upper low may form on the northern flank of this wave, cutting off from the westerly wind regime during the day. Ridging in the west and east keeping skies dry in these locations, however the high amplitude patter that is building over the nation will set up a severe weather event over the south and east next week.

Showers developing for southeast SA, VIC and western TAS tending to areas of rain along the front. Strong to gale force northwesterly winds over the south will move further east, but remaining dry over NSW and QLD for now. Colder air surging north over the southern coastal areas of SA will bring the risk of hail and thunder with wind squalls. Cloud increasing over northwest WA with patchy rainfall later. A few showers along the NT coast during the morning and over the QLD coast north of Mackay.

Tuesday 8th of June 2021.

A deep upper low forms over SA which will cut off from the westerly wind profile to the south. Ridging over the west and east will remain slow moving, but the ridge out west will strengthen which will set up the high amplitude pattern over the nation. This will assist in dragging up very cold air from the south. Heights coming down over northern Australia with a drop in temperatures.

Rain and thunderstorms breaking out over QLD, NSW and VIC with the lead trough running into moisture sitting over the eastern inland. Some thunderstorms could be severe with widespread rain to follow at night for the east. A deep low over the VIC/SA border will bring areas of rain to VIC in the warm sector, but in the cold sector over SA, showers, hail and thunder with snowfalls developing over the Flinders ranges. Fine out west with a large high in place, though cloudy skies developing over parts of the west. A few showers about the QLD coast in northeast winds, could be heavy in places.

A week from today - Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Upper low deepens over the east, with severe weather possible. Ridging over the east will hold the low pressure up over the east keeping the unsettled weather going. Ridging over the west will keep skies clear with sunshine and warm temperatures.

Deep low washes out over the VIC/SA border but a new centre of circulation develops on the trough near Gippsland, with a trough moving over the east coast. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe along the QLD and NSW coasts clearing east. Rain and thunderstorms developing behind this band during the day. Widespread showers continuing for the SE with hail and thunder. Rain developing out west with another system later in the day moving south parallel to the coast.

Thursday June 11th 2021.

Deep upper low over the southeast continuing the severe weather risk with very cold weather continuing. Ridging over the Tasman keeping the low in place. Another deep low moving closer to the west coast, with ridging over the Bight breaking down.

Deep low over northern VIC with rain and strong winds over the inland. Dry slot over the east coast keeping things dry and cold with strong winds. A new front approaching WA will bring rain and thunderstorms to the west coast. Dry and much colder elsewhere

Taking it out 10 days - Friday 11th June 2021.

Deep upper low over the east moving eastwards with another deep low over WA with widespread severe weather with both systems. Ridging over QLD will keep skies clear. Heights recovering over northern Australia.

Rain and thunderstorms over WA spreading east with a gusty northwest wind reaching western SA later in the day. Rain and strong winds in the southeast starting to east over eastern VIC and SE NSW with snowfalls easing over Alpine areas. Dry weather elsewhere under a weak ridge over QLD. But this is 10 days out and will likely change.

Lets have a look at EC for comparison.


Tuesday 8th of June 2021.

Significant upper low moving over SA into VIC and NSW with widespread rain and thunderstorms breaking out in advance of the system over the eastern states with the chance of severe thunderstorms over QLD, NSW and northern VIC in the warm sector. Cold showery weather with moderate falls over SA with local hail and thunder with snowfalls possible about the Flinders.

As we get to Friday the 11th of June 2021, the Euro is similar in it's position to GFS with a deep low offshore with widespread rain over eastern VIC and southeast NSW with a cold southwest wind regime. A new wave out west is not as pronounced over southwest WA but rain should break out in the region.

Euro Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 2nd June 2021.

Rainfall for the next 10 days shows significant falls for inland NSW and QLD, extending through VIC and southern and eastern SA.

Plenty of weather on the horizon! This will continue to refine as we go through the coming days. Do you need more weather information for your part of the world? Get in touch - karllijnders@weathermatters.org


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