NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - WEDNESDAY 7TH OF JULY

Headlines


  • A very cold start again for the east with widespread frost and pockets of freezing conditions where temperatures have been below -5C overnight for more than 6hrs.

  • Wet and windy through the southwest with plenty of showers and storms, small hail and squalls overnight and through to this point. The showers continue today with wintry weather.

  • Inland rainfall still on the cards for the eastern inland.

  • Showery weather increasing for the southeastern states next week.

National Satellite Picture - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Fairly clear satellite this morning leading to a cold start with frost throughout a large portion of the inland. Clearer weather today for many after a cloudy cold and foggy day yesterday. Showers increasing through the southwest with another cold pool following a cold front.

Widespread showers with local hail and thunder through the southwest of the nation with a gusty southwest to westerly flow. The cold front is weakening as it crosses through Kalbarri to about Hopetoun. The showers will ease later today.

Temperatures - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Cold with local morning frost through widespread areas of the east and southeast, extending back through to the central inland. Dry and cool over the north this morning and milder over the western interior with more wind and cloud cover and shower activity under a cold pool will see temperatures not move much through the southwest land division.

Widespread frost throughout NSW with freeze conditions up and down the Great Dividing Range with less fog through the region and less cloud cover aloft. It will be a lovely sunny winters day with temperatures moving back towards the average throughout SA, VIC and NSW.

Radar - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021

The only part of the nation recording rainfall of any note is the southwest again today, 20-40mm of rainfall has been observed with the front overnight. That is pushing some locations to 100-120mm for the week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Widespread rainfall expected to develop for the eastern inland with a trough which will quickly move east and clear by Saturday. Frontal weather to continue to bring heavy rainfall to the southwest of the nation. Showers increasing over the southern coastline with moderate falls developing from Tuesday next week and persisting. Still keeping an eye on rainfall entering the Pilbara next week which could spawn a larger scale rainfall event from day 8-10 window onwards.

12Z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Wednesday 7th of July 2021

No real change in the rainfall guide from last night with the rainfall over the northern inland of NSW and over southern inland QLD with moderate to heavy falls. Showers for the coming 7-10 days over the southwest but that shower activity likely to increase from Sunday over the southeast. And the rainfall rates becoming more frequent on Tuesday through the southern half of the nation, while the north and east inland dries out. Keeping an eye on the northwest moisture in feed which is increasing over outback WA through SA into western NSW riding on top of the wave action further south.

12Z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Wednesday 7th of July 2021

The eastern inland rainfall event sitting a little further north than GFS bringing more rainfall back through QLD. Showers increasing over the southwest through the southern coastline with the next lot of fronts from Friday in southwest WA and then through SA and VIC from Sunday through next week. Note the cloud band coming in from the Indian Ocean later in the period. This model running too dry for the southeast coastline.

12Z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Has all the events on the board but keeps the rainfall through mostly NSW with lighter falls for QLD from later Thursday into Friday. Showers over the southwest continue through much of the next 10 days, but like GFS has better rainfall coming east from Tuesday next week and I am siding with that solution.

Model Discussion and Analysis - Wednesday 7th of July 2021


12Z GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern

12Z GFS Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution


Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Large long wave trough moving through the southwest standing up and heading eastwards. Ridging over the east keeping the weather settled with mainly clear skies and light winds. The pattern remaining the same as it has since Sunday. This pattern likely to persist for a number of days to come.

Showers increasing over the southern coast of WA with a cold front, that front moving into western SA later in the day. Showers possible about parts of the QLD coast this morning with onshore easterly winds. Otherwise most places dry today after that cold start, sunny with light winds. Seasonal conditions.

Thursday 8th of July 2021

A trough moving from SA through to western NSW and QLD, will link up with another surface trough that is sitting over the eastern inland, combining with widespread showers and a few storms later. The front propelling the trough through SA during the day may bring a few showers to the southern coast of SA into the southeast later in the day. Weak ridge over WA will see the showers return to the southwest coast with a gusty northwest flow returning. Fine weather elsewhere with cold starts leading to mostly sunny weather away from the western inland of QLD and NSW.

Widespread rain and a few storms over the northeast of NSW and southern QLD contracting through to the southeast and away during Friday morning. The rain could be heavy at times with a months worth for some over the northwest slopes and plains of NSW through to the New England and along the western slopes of the GDR. Perhaps patchy rainfall extending southwards to the central and southern inland but I will keep the risk low for rainfall to develop in these regions. Another front set to pounce on the southwest of WA bringing another burst of showers overnight Thursday into Friday. A few showers possible about southern SA. Fine weather continues elsewhere

Friday 9th of July 2021

By Friday afternoon the wet weather contracts east and clears off the eastern seaboard. The trough develops a low along it's axis and that low deepens offshore the east coast, with showers and strong winds for the east coast north of Newcastle. Fine weather over the southeast with a high consolidating over the eastern inland. Another strong front pushing through the southwest with gusty winds and widespread showers and thunderstorms once again. Moderate to heavy falls are possible.

Saturday 10th of July 2021

The high pressure ridge is a little stronger over the southeast inland and another centre forms over WA. That may assist in knocking down the front coming into the Bight, so the wet weather heading offshore away from the semi arid parts of southern WA and SA. Low pressure in the Tasman Sea may bring widespread coastal showers with parts of the coasts the jut out receiving moderate falls in the southerly flow. Fine weather almost everywhere else with seasonal weather, this includes the southwest which will be between frontal passages.

Sunday 11th of July 2021

The front from Saturday over the Bight comes across to the southeast of SA and western VIC bringing a band of showers and strong winds. Fine weather over much of the east and north of the nation with that persistent ridge slowly migrating north with a weak centre over SA also rapidly moving east. Next strong cold front approaching WA connects with the moisture over the northwest Indian Ocean and a band of widespread rainfall comes through later in the day with strong winds.

Monday 12th of July 2021

Widespread rainfall over WA with heavy falls about the west and south coast with a strong cold front and cloud band. High pressure over the east keeping the eastern and northern parts dry and mild. Between the high to the east and the strong long wave to the west, the southeast states will be in a strong to gale force northwest flow with showers increasing later with a weak front passing through and above average temperatures.

Rain developing through SA with heavy falls possible along the northwest cloud band as it comes through with a strong cold front. Showers continue back behind the front for large parts of WA with moderate falls. High pressure moving further northeast up over NSW and QLD making room for the frontal weather over the south. Fine weather over the north though humidity persisting.

Tuesday 13th of July 2021

Rain with some heavy falls over VIC with a gusty strong northwest flow as a front moves through the southeast. Rain developing over the southern inland of NSW with snowfalls over Alpine areas. Showers back through the southern states with further frontal weather. Another front to bring strong winds and heavier rainfall later in the day to southwest WA...AGAIN. In between fronts over SA with showers coming back later in the day for coastal areas.

Wednesday 14th of July 2021

Rainfall, patchy, but about parts of the central and eastern inland with a cloud band continuing. Showers and hail with gales for southern parts of the nation with another front pushing through. The best rainfall will be for those areas exposed to a westerly wind regime. A last front pushing through southwest WA with a cold southerly wind. That may clear the west coast later in the day. Fine weather over the northern half of the nation with high pressure anchored north of the westerly wind belt.

Thursday 15th of July 2021

Strong long wave trough over the east of the nation with another front passing through SA, VIC and TAS. Widespread showers over the region with a fast moving long wave. This is pushing the frontal weather through a little quicker than previous runs. Fine weather returns to the west coast with a high pressure system settling in there, this would be the first high at this time in 17 days if it verifies. Fine weather over the north and east.

Friday 16th of July 2021

Deep long wave over the east and a high pressure ridge in the west. It takes the best part of 10 days to get the long wave trough over the east with the wild wintry weather that has been hitting WA, being dominant over the east. A trough does hang back over southern SA which will keep an eye on as if there is moisture that lingers from the northwest, rain could break out again.

Long wave parked over the east of the nation with a deep cold southerly flow with widespread showers, hail and thunder. Snowfalls developing down to lower levels with a cold airmass surging north. Fine weather over in the west. The high will be slow moving under current guidance so the cold weather may last a while in the east mid month.

Need more weather information? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for tailored forecasting options.

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