NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - WEDNESDAY 16TH OF JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Showery wintry weather pushing through SA into the eastern states on Wednesday.

  • Thunderstorms also possible throughout southeast Australia with a cold airmass

  • Thunderstorms possible through eastern NSW and QLD with a developing front and trough moving through.

  • Becoming more humid over the Top End.

A deep low pressure system continues to circulate through SA waters this morning, bringing more colder weather throughout the region. Showers and thunderstorms developed overnight and are ongoing today with mainly light falls with thundery bursts bringing moderate totals.


Thunderstorms are possible throughout today through SA into VIC and western NSW with a cold airmass along the front. Another burst of showers and thunderstorms may break out along the trough through NSW and QLD, linking up with residual instability to kick off an organised batch of thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.


More humid over the Top End with the winds veering a little more east to northeasterly and tending light, allowing the shallow sea breeze to return to coastal areas.


National Satellite Picture - Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Upper low driving showers and thunderstorms over the southeast states with a surface low near Adelaide this morning. A jet stream cloud band over the northwest is mainly in active with a trough nearby. Middle level cloud connected to a trough and some moisture spreading through QLD is kicking off middle level storms.

Upper level low with a surface low over Adelaide with showers and thunderstorms on the eastern flank of the low moving through Victoria on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely break out over the eastern inland along a front that will push towards the coast overnight into Thursday.

Temperatures - Wednesday 16th of June 2021

A cold start over the southeast and south of the nation this morning with a cold airmass moving in from the west. Cold back over much of WA with light winds and clear skies as high pressure moves in. Warmer air training into the eastern inland this morning ahead of the frontal passage with this being the battle ground for robust thunderstorms developing this afternoon.

Cold with local frost reported over the Great Dividing Range with conditions warming up quickly this morning as northwest winds develop ahead of a front tonight. Cold back through SA with onshore winds freshening as the low begins to move eastwards today.

Radar - Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Wet through metropolitan Melbourne this morning with clumps of showers and storms rolling through with some moderate falls. The showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east through the eastern inland today. Overnight there were falls of 5-25mm through SA with this band and 5-15mm through parts of western and northwestern Victoria.

National Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Moderate rainfall over the coming couple of days over the southeast with a low. Some chance of heavy falls over the southeast of NSW with the low moving east. A broad area of rain and storms expected to develop during next week from the west and heading southeast into the eastern inland.

GFS 12z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

CMC 12z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Euro 12z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

KMA 12z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Model Analysis and Forecast Discussion

GFS 12z Run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern

GFS 12z Run - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution


Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Upper low rotating through the southeast bringing wintry weather on its western flank, but driving showers and thunderstorms on its eastern flank in the warm sector. Fast zonal flow over much of the nation bringing cloud over the interior but little rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms breaking out from northern Victoria through NSW into southern and central QLD with a gusty change. Cloudy over the northwest of the nation but the bulk of rainfall staying offshore. Fine through WA with a cold start lifting to sunshine. Showery weather through coastal SA with the chance of small hail and thunder.

Thursday 17th of June 2021

Complex upper low with multiple centres over the southeast driving wintry weather. High pressure moving into the southwest of the nation clearing skies and lifting temperatures. Heights coming up over northern Australia with a little more humidity developing as the ridge builds.

Low pressure developing off the east coast driving showers and thunderstorms offshore, with some of that clipping the far southeast of the nation. Another pulse of cold air moving over SA and western VIC bringing rain and thunder to the region with cold temperatures. Cloudy skies across the interior but largely dry. A morning shower over the north with increased humidity. Fine over WA.

Friday 18th of June 2021

Upper low consolidating offshore NSW with a trough rotating through the eastern inland bringing well below average temperatures. Another upper low hanging back over WA is inactive. Heights coming up over WA bringing fine and milder weather and a dry surge will begin to approach the north.

Low pressure system offshore the southeast coast of NSW bringing strong winds, high seas and showers. Cold weather expected with the low close by. Inland showers over WA with that weak upper low. Showers clearing the southeast corner as high pressure moves in throughout Friday. Dry southeasterly winds approaching the north.

Saturday 19th of June 2021

Broad troughing over the east with a low in the Tasman Sea keeping temperatures below average. An upper low wafting through the outback of WA will continue to move steadily east. High pressure ridging through WA into the Bight clearing skies as we go through Saturday over the southeast.

Cold and windy along the east coast with showers decreasing through the day but remaining dangerous in the seas. A little light rain under a lot of cloud over the inland of WA moving into the NT with the upper feature. Fine weather elsewhere with high pressure taking over the nation. A cold front approaching the southwest very late in the day with gusty winds and showers

Sunday 20th of June 2021

Troughing lifting off the east coast with conditions stabalising as a mobile high pressure system begins to move in. Upper low over the NT/SA border bringing a lot of cloud. Front weather building off the southwest coast with wintry weather returning and the dry season surge of southeast winds arrives over the Top End.

Broad band of rainfall developing with a large amount of moisture being pulled into the west coast of Australia, a strong cold front standing up to meet the moisture, lifting it into an organised band of rainfall. Showers easing along the east coast with southerly winds decreasing as high pressure moves in. Rain and storms building over the west the main element later in the weekend.

Monday 21st of June 2021

Large upper low off the west coast beginning to progress over WA bringing widespread rain and severe weather potential. Upper low over inland QLD mainly inactive. High pressure over the southeast keeping the region dry and stable. Heights about normal elsewhere with seasonal weather.

Rain and thunderstorms moving through WA with some moderate to heavy falls possible and severe weather potential. Showers along the east coast may hang on with the passage of the upper low through QLD to the coast. Warming up over the southeast with the high pressure moving east sending the winds into the north, but becoming colder over in WA with strong westerly winds.

Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

Upper low moving east through southern WA with potential for severe weather risk attached to that. High pressure strengthening over the east with temperatures moving above average with a northerly flow. A high amplitude pattern is developing.

Deep low rolling through the southern ocean with a leading front attached bringing rainfall and strong winds through WA into SA, a warm airmass ahead will see temperatures move above the average in sunshine through high cloud may increase. Showers for parts of the east coast in mildly unstable easterly winds. Showers continuing for the southwest of the nation.

Friday 25th of June 2021

Large long wave trough passing through the central parts of the nation with cold fronts underneath bringing wintry weather and showery periods. Ridging in the east keeping things mostly fine for now, though residual rainfall with a weakening trough ahead of the long wave may be bringing some more cloudy skies for QLD and NSW. Cold back in southwest areas and seasonal over the north.

Rain with moderate falls clearing the east coast during the day. Weak ridge of high pressure over central Australia moving east. A new cold front passing through the Bight with showers and thunderstorms over SW WA with further moderate falls possible.


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