Useful rainfall moving through SA overnight into NSW and VIC. A windy showery airstream developing behind the rain band today.
Persistent rainfall may trigger minor flooding for parts of NSW/VIC.
Colder and showery weather through much of the south over the coming days
The west drying out later this week.
The north is staying much warmer than normal, that may add more fuel to the weather systems in the coming weeks.
National Satellite Picture - Wednesday 14th of July 2021
A rain band is moving through parts of eastern SA through to western NSW and over VIC today. Mainly light falls but that rainfall is expected to increase over NSW today, along the divide and on the western slopes. Further cold fronts can be seen rotating through the Bight with a soup bowl of low pressure south of the nation.
Temperatures - Wednesday 14th of July 2021
Milder morning over much of the nation, and you can track that moisture and cloud from the Indian Ocean, the negative dipole dragging in that elevated humidity levels and cloud cover, producing above average temperatures. Conditions will be above average over much of the north and east today with a northwest flow. Near seasonal through the south with rain and strong winds, with a colder airmass approaching SWLD of WA today.
A much milder start today with rainfall and cloud cover over much of the region. Still chilly through the southeast of NSW this morning, but temperatures should increase rapidly today as the cloud and wind increase. Temperatures should be near seasonal if not above average in many locations despite the cloud and rainfall.
Radar - Wednesday 14th of July 2021
Rain spreading throughout the eastern inland after delivering 5-15mm through SA with the better falls across the eastern districts bordering SA. Light to moderate falls will continue to move east through NSW and VIC today, with the best falls on the northern slopes of VIC and western slopes of NSW.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Wednesday 14th of July 2021
Increasing rainfall today across the southeastern inland up to the QLD border with a moist unstable northwest flow and a series of troughs producing moderate falls. Rainfall continues through these regions until Saturday. Showers increasing with moderate to heavy falls for coastal areas of SA, VIC and TAS. A colder shift will turn the rainfall wintry and snow likely to return. Out west, the rain and showers eases through Thursday before more rainfall next week with that rainfall spreading across to SA, VIC and NSW next week. Dry under an upper high over the north and much of QLD.
00Z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Wednesday 14th of July 2021
Widespread rainfall expected for the coming 3 days over the southeast with frontal weather moving through and a moist airmass. Another rainfall event is expected to bring further rainfall next week through the southwest of the nation before that amplifies over the southeast. But the timing and scale of that system continues to evolve and a better handle on that can be expected on Saturday or Sunday.
00Z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.
Persistent rainfall developing through NSW and VIC today with showers increasing over SA today with thunderstorms possible. The wet weather ramps up again Thursday for coastal areas with a strong cold front.
GFS may have dropped the widespread rainfall for next week but Euro now has it and moving southeast and east over the southern coastline. I will side with that scenario given the signals from the data coming through this morning.
00Z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Tuesday 13th of July 2021.
CMC has widespread welcome rainfall to thirsty parts of SA and VIC on top of what has fallen already overnight with strong cold fronts. Next week it does have the moisture surging south east over WA next week so that system is still active and in play for follow up falls across the nation next week.
Model discussion and analysis
12Z GFS Upper Flow Pattern and 18000ft next 16 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021
The GFS has shifted to being an outlier overnight with a fast flow pattern set to persist right through the coming 2 weeks if this is correct, bypassing some of the deep moisture from the northwest, but producing more rainfall for coastal areas of SA, VIC and TAS. Some of the frontal rainfall also coming into inland areas, however this is a drier look for WA and inland areas that previous. Little rainfall would not make it into QLD and northern NSW after this week. I am placing this as a low confident forecast and will update the latest data set later this morning.
12Z GFS Precipitable Water Values - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021
As mentioned above, if the westerly wind profile does win out early next week with another long wave developing west of SA, then the moisture over the northwest will be dammed back over WA and the NT with some of it making it into the southeast, but not at the levels shown yesterday meaning rainfall would be coastal, but I am not siding with this solution, but good to compare with the other modelling this morning, to know what solution is on the board.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 16 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021
Note this week is set in stone with widespread showers and rainfall underway. Next week have a look at this model continuing the westerly flow pattern and then compare with the Euro, which has the solution that was on the table last night with GFS, a low pressure system coming through WA and into the southeast states. I am still siding with Euro. But if GFS is right, the rainfall distribution would be quite a lot lighter for inland areas.
12Z Euro Precipitable Water next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021
The Euro continues with the most likely solution at this time, with a deep moisture plume traversing the nation this week, a dry surge behind a cold front on Friday will clear the moisture back to WA, then the moisture returns via WA and low pressure picking that up and dragging that through SA, VIC, NSW and parts of southern QLD with more inland rainfall. This is in line with the climatic drivers and where they are forecast to be.
12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021
Widespread rainfall this week in good agreement with GFS and CMC. But where the models are diverging is from Monday next week, the Euro brings a large low through WA with heavy rainfall and severe weather potential. This then tracks through SA and into the southeast inland with follow up rainfall possible for the end of the month. I believe that this is the right solution at this time.
And I will have more on next week's rainfall potential which was updated late last night.
Rainfall forecast for next week connected to the next wave of moisture coming through the nation.
Today's weather schedule
State based forecast and analysis this morning
2 week forecast later this morning
NW Cloud band watch and the potential next week
More information about the climate drivers this afternoon and the impact across the nation over the coming 6 months.
Talking about the flood risks for the nation moving into the coming 6-9 months.
Have a great Wednesday