• More active severe weather for WA with a large cold pool following a front working through the region, a sign of things to come for the eastern and southern states next week.

  • Settled over the east for the next few days. Significant frost and a freeze for some overnight and into the morning for parts of NSW and another likely for Wednesday morning.

  • Rain breaks out over the east, the latest model data on what has been a dog's breakfast on trying to pin down who gets what.

  • A wintry blast is expected to traverse the southern half of the nation during next week, the last on that.

National Satellite Picture - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Unstable westerly wind belt starting to move further north and northeast towards the southwest of the nation with cold air and multiple fronts rotating through today and tonight with wild weather. The remainder of the moisture that brought Sunday's rainfall to the west coast, is that thin high cloud over the nation which will drift through today. Fine and cold this morning.

A cold airmass with showers increasing through the southwest. The brighter white clouds moving through southwest of the nation are the cold air showers and thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds. That will be approaching this afternoon with severe weather possible later.

Temperatures - Valid 5am EST Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

A cold start for many locations with severe frosts in NSW and northeast VIC. Cold with frost over the central interior of the nation over elevated parts of the NT. Cold and dry air extending back towards the central NT where it is 5C this morning. Windy and cold through the southwest with temperatures not moving much today about coastal areas. A nice warm up through inland QLD and SA this afternoon with warmer air with temperatures below average elsewhere.

A freeze ongoing through the southeast of NSW this morning, with -9C at Cooma and surrounds, -7 at Bredbo and -4C at Michelago. Significant frost also up the Monaro to Canberra where the fog begins.

Radar - Valid 5am EST Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

The wettest part of the nation is down in the southwest of WA, that next front offshore will bring a further 40mm to parts of the west coast in the coming 24hrs. Everywhere else is dry and partly cloudy at worst today once the fog lifts over the southern and eastern inland.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Rainfall confidence for the east has improved with that area over the northeast of NSW being the focus of rainfall later this week, with that rainfall area to move around a tad over the coming days but that will likely be the focus of rainfall Friday to Saturday. The west is wet for the coming 10 days with that frontal weather making it's way across to SA and VIC by Sunday through most of next week. Inland areas may see rainfall develop mid next week from the northwest.

12z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Widespread rainfall will develop through southern QLD and northern NSW later this week, then fronts begin to increase for southern Australia with this model showing a band of moderate rainfall later Monday through Tuesday for SA, VIC and NSW. The southwest wet for the next 10 days. A cloud band being flirted with across the nation next week as well.

12z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Similar idea with the moisture sitting off the northwest coast of Australia, that is looking more likely to advance southeast. Otherwise, divergent in rainfall spread for the eastern inland of the nation. Showers increasing over the southern states from Sunday and then extending north slowly next week. The southwest wet for the coming 10 days.

12z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Off with the fairies with how to approach the frontal weather later in the weekend, hence why the southwest of the nation is a lot drier. Rainfall spread for the northeast of NSW and southern QLD a little more aligned with the models now, suggesting that the rainfall spread will favour that region with the system moving east rather than south, so that is the most important information while looking at the models this morning, the agreement on the movement of that system.

12z KMA Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Again using this model to show that the modelling is firming for rainfall over the northeast third of NSW and southern QLD later this week with that system likely to move more east than south, so rainfall chances with this system coming through later Friday and Saturday will likely move north of VIC and southern NSW.

Model discussion and analysis - Valid Monday 5th of July 2021

00z GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern

00z GFS Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution

Tuesday 6th of July 2021

High pressure over the southeast keeping things cold and dry this morning but settled today for everywhere away from the southwest where a strong cold front will roll through once again. Long wave is still parked in the southwest.

High pressure over the southeast controls the weather for much of the nation, so the quiet start to the week continues weather wise with just scattered frost issues and a freeze down over southeast NSW this morning. In the west, windy with showers, becoming heavy with local hail and thunder later today.

Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Large long wave trough beginning to move east through southern WA with gusty winds and colder air drifting through. Upper high over the eastern inland with a settled airmass still controlling conditions for most everywhere else of the nation. So rinse and repeat weather.

Strong cold front spreading a band of rain through the southern coastline of Australia, reaching western SA later in the day. A northeast to northerly flow will develop throughout the southeast, so warming up after another cold start. Fine weather through the eastern inland after more frost. The showers and hail over the southwest begins to ease as a weak ridge moves in from the west.

Thursday 8th of July 2021

Long wave trough beginning to weaken but a pre frontal trough that will pass through inland SA with thick cloud and little rainfall. An upper ridge will lift off the NSW coast but maintain a controlling influence for much of the daylight hours. A zonal flow developing over much of the nation with a weak ridge coming into WA.

Rain breaks out over inland NSW and QLD with a trough moving into the west of these states, interacting with moisture out of the northern parts of the nation. Steady falls likely for the northern inland of NSW and lighter falls for southern QLD at this stage. A few showers possible along the east coast in onshore winds. A flat ridge over the south and west keeping most areas dry, though a front sliding southeast of SA may bring coastal showers to the YP and KI. Showers continuing for the southwest of WA in an onshore wind flow.

The rain increases over inland NSW, especially about the northeastern third of the state, with lighter falls moving through the southern and southeastern inland of QLD. That rain ending from northwest to southeast overnight into Friday. The westerly wind belt establishing through the south of the nation with a few fronts bringing showers to SA and WA coastal communities.

Friday 9th of July 2021

Upper trough moving through NSW with a weak low in the upper atmosphere. A ridge extending over eastern inland QLD to the ridge offshore the east coast. A wave passing through Tasmania with a stronger long wave over WA reinforcing the wintry weather, with yet another set of fronts moving through.

Rain clears offshore quicker than the models were indicating yesterday with clearance expected later Friday over the eastern inland. This could keep rainfall totals lower than what has been forecast. Fine through the southeast with a high hanging on, though showers over the southeast of SA and southwest VIC in a northwest flow. A strong cold front bringing widespread showers over the southwest of the nation with strong and gusty winds.

Saturday 10th of July 2021

A winter time pattern developing on the charts. Ridging over the east beginning to rebuild but moving east. A strong wave now hitting that ridge moving eastwards taking the windy and showery weather towards the east. More cold and unstable weather for the west with another strong front sitting offshore rolling through later in the day.

Fine in the east with cloud increasing later as a front approaches. The low that was expected to be off the southeast coast of NSW this time yesterday, is now being forecast to be well off the east coast with no impact. Fine weather temporarily for the southwest but a strong front is lurking offshore. Fine over northern Australia with the subtropical ridge building into its winter time pattern.

Sunday 11th of July 2021

A shortwave arrives in the southeast with windy weather developing and a colder shift. That knocks the ridge further east towards the Tasman. Another strong long wave offshore approaching from the west bringing widespread winter weather again to the region. Upper high over northern Australia with seasonal conditions trending above average through the day time

Showers increasing over southeast SA and through VIC with a cold front pushing through with gusty winds. Heavy falls possible for western TAS. Fine weather almost everywhere else through Sunday through rain developing for the west coast with a strong and gusty northwest wind ahead of the next strong cold front. That front has a severe weather look for damaging winds.

Monday 12th of July 2021

Shortwave trough passing through the southeast with a deep long wave trough passing over southern WA with a wintry set up beginning to strengthen over the south of the nation. Upper high over the northern parts of Australia keeping the north and eastern inland mostly clear and seasonal.

Showers increasing over most of the southern states with multiple cold fronts working through the fast flow pattern. A high migrating to be near Glen Inness controlling the majority of the nations weather, though we may see thick cloud develop with the stronger front over WA connected back to the northwest over the Indian Ocean with rainfall developing for larger areas than what is being discussed here, something to watch.

Later Monday into Tuesday, gale force winds will develop ahead of a band of rain that will push through a good chunk of southern SA and move into VIC with moderate falls on this run. Showers increasing later Monday into Tuesday for the southwest with yet another front passing through. The settled weather continues over northern and eastern Australia.

Tuesday - Wednesday next week.

The broad unstable westerly flow continues for large parts of southern Australia through most of next week with an upper high sitting well to the north. A good opportunity for those areas that rely on westerly winds for winter rainfall.

Simple forecast next week, showery for the southern states with gusty conditions Tuesday through to Friday with moderate falls likely for those areas exposed to the westerly winds. Rainfall will be lighter inland but will accumulate over a number of days.

Thursday -Friday next week

Deep upper trough passing through to the east will send a burst of very cold weather over the southeast. A shortwave to follow this bringing another burst of rainfall for the west coast and this will move into SA by Friday or Saturday.

I posted this far out to note that moisture coming into WA once again, this signal keeps being pinged by the models for this period, so again will be watching this space closely.

Lets compare the Euro run with the GFS this evening to see how the signals are looking through the short term.

12z GFS Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern the next 10 days -Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

A fast flow pattern for the coming 2 weeks continues with rainfall confined for most southern and western parts of the nation, but cast your eyes to the Indian Ocean, there is better agreement for the moisture to come southeast through the jet stream.

12z Euro Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Note the moisture coming through the Indian Ocean next week otherwise the southern ocean will dominate the weather later in the weekend with widespread showers and windy weather while the north and inland areas stay dry.

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