NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - TUESDAY 8TH OF JUNE 2021.

Headlines


  • Vigorous dynamic weather event coming through SA and into the eastern states today.

  • Severe weather potential to increase over the coming 24 hours

  • Becoming colder and drier over northern Australia mid to late week.

  • Another severe weather event is likely for WA later this week.

Significant weather is currently passing through SA and VIC on Tuesday, with damaging winds recorded overnight and moderate rainfall. A few storms have already passed through SE SA including the Adelaide metro on Monday night and into Tuesday morning with further storms likely on Tuesday spreading eastwards.


Rain breaking out through NSW with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on the front of the rain band pushing through southern and central NSW. Thunderstorms also breaking out through the cold airmass in the peak of the day time heating over SA and into VIC and western TAS.


Snowfalls are still likely to develop for NSW and VIC down to about 700m with cold air advection kicking in from the south and west.


Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding possible over SE NSW and E VIC with moisture streaming in on the southern side of the low pressure complex from Thursday into Saturday.


Dry colder air will work it's way north through QLD into NT with a gusty southeasterly wind developing later this week into the weekend with the coldest nights of the year possible. That will lead to elevated fire dangers over the Top End.


Another severe weather event will break out over SWLD of WA with the passage of a low pressure system west and south of the region. There could also be storm force winds in association with the system as it crosses through the region. A leading cold front may bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday across the region.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Strong cold front pushing through VIC and southern NSW this morning with a strong northerly flow ahead of it backing colder westerly as it moves east. Very cold air mass rotating around SA with widespread showers hail and thunder. This airmass is moving east and north and will bring the bitterly cold weather into NSW later today into Wednesday. High cloud over QLD is fair weather, with the cloud kicking off in response to the thermal and pressure gradient.

A very cold airmass rotating through the southeast will be bringing the snowline down to very low levels through the east during the coming days with a low likely to form out of this airmass.

Radar - Valid Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Widespread showers, hail and thunder over southeast SA with some moderate falls. Widespread rainfall through central VIC along the frontal boundary. Rain with moderate falls over TAS with a low sitting off to the NW. Otherwise the rain is progressing slowly east and will reach NSW this afternoon.

Temperatures - Valid Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Near seasonal temperatures over much of northern Australia though humid over the far northeast with easterly winds remaining light. Warmer through inland QLD in a northwest wind. Cold in the east and south with the frontal wave bringing colder air into the region, with falling temperatures through VIC and NSW today. Warming up over the west after a cool start.

Cold through the southeast of SA with widespread showers, hail and thunder with a squally wind. Marginal chance of snowfalls about the Flinders this morning. Cold weather over the east with recover quickly with a northerly flow developing ahead of rain this evening.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 8th of June 2021.

GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday June 8th 2021

CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday June 8th 2021

Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday June 8th 2021.

Model Analysis


GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern showing the passage of weather in the atmosphere above our heads.

GFS MSLP and Rainfall Distribution


Tuesday June 8th 2021

Deep upper low moving into NSW with strong and gusty winds rotating around the system. A very cold airmass moving into the southeast with a high amplitude pattern developing over the southern parts of the nation. Heights becoming neutral over much of the north. New upper ridge in the west keeping skies clear for now but a deep low is sitting just offshore the west.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms moving east through SA, VIC and into NSW during the day, with moderate falls over SA with local hail and thunder. Strong and squally winds developing around the low pressure system. High pressure anchored over the Great Australian Bight with stable conditions developing behind the low as it moves into NSW. Strong and gusty winds over WA with a low sitting offshore bringing warmer temperatures. Fine over the north and east, though a shower or two possible about QLD coast.

Wednesday June 9th 2021

Very deep upper low over Canberra bringing significant severe weather over the southeast, but position of the low is key. That will not be known until it is happening, which will determine precipitation placement. High pressure back over the west and to the east and south of the system cradling the feature. A new low pressure moving towards the west coast later.

Very deep low of 994hPa sitting over Canberra with heavy rainfall for East Gippsland and Central VIC and also into the South Coast, but once again, placement of the low is paramount to who gets what. Snowfalls down to low levels over NSW and VIC. Rain and storms moving offshore the east coast. Out west, a strong and gusty northerly flow backing northwest with rain pushing inland. Severe weather possible over the southwest and southeast of the nation.

Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low opening up a little and moving north, bumped by a strengthening ridge to the southeast of Australia. A ridge over SA keeping things dry and cool. Cooler over the north with heights coming down. A zonal flow developing over WA with more waves embedded in the flow.

Further severe weather risk for NSW with a deep low over central or northern areas, but this has been offshore in previous runs and on other modelling. Again placement is paramount to who gets what. Fine weather over much of the north and central Australia with a colder dry air mass. Unsettled over WA with scattered showers and some thunder continuing.

Friday June 11th 2021

Upper low moving south to be offshore the South Coast of NSW later in the day, bringing further severe weather risks to NSW and VIC. Another wave over WA pushing through during the afternoon with another round of wet weather. Ridging to the south and east of the nation keeping the upper low slow moving.

Windy with periods of rain over the southern coast of NSW and extending into Gippsland with heavy falls possible. Showers about the adjacent inland and snow over the NSW Alpine areas. Unsettled out west with showers becoming more widespread with a few thunderstorms. Cloud developing over QLD later in the day but remaining dry with an upper trough forming. A weak ridge over Central Australia keeping the nation dry.

Saturday June 12th 2021

Upper low weakening and opening up offshore. Another wave over Central Australia moving into the east bringing some colder air to the upper atmosphere. A large ridge over the Tasman Sea keeping the blocking pattern in place. Dry weather over northern Australia with falling temperatures.

Low pressure moving off the southeast coast of VIC but still bringing widespread showers to southern and eastern VIC and TAS with moderate falls. Rain breaking out with the approach of the upper trough into Central Australia arriving in QLD later, so cloud thickening over the east. Showers over WA with a few thunderstorms possible about the south coast of WA. Dry for much of NSW after a cold start with a high pressure system building over the state.

Sunday June 13th 2021

Upper low drifting southeast of TAS with conditions stabalising with a ridge weakening to the south of the nation. A ridge redeveloping south of SA. Upper low and trough pushing through SA with a zonal flow over much of the nation, though heights not as low as previously analysed.

Rain over QLD with an upper trough producing light and patchy falls and cooler weather. A trough over SA with some showers developing. A front over the southeast of TAS as a low resolves offshore bringing more showers. Another front developing offshore WA with a westerly flow continuing to drive showers over the region.

Monday June 14th 2021

Upper low moving over NSW with increased clouds and instability moving towards QLD. Another wave moving towards WA with a strengthening unstable westerly flow. Ridging still in place to the south of the nation slow moving with a block remaining in the Tasman but heights starting to come down.

Rain increasing over QLD with an upper low moving through NSW bringing some instability to the east. Cloud increasing over WA with rain developing for parts of the west coast and possibly the Pilbara with another impulse of moisture. High pressure keeping much of the nation dry at this stage, but it is a low confidence forecast surrounding rainfall for QLD. Multiple troughs through the northeast and easterly flow on top of the high remains to be seen.

Thursday June 17th 2021

Unstable zonal flow over the nation with embedded waves in the flow producing unsettled weather. But this is a very low confidence forecast as I always say, it is 10 days out, it will change

Showers over the east with patchy rainfall through the eastern inland. South Australia would have colder weather with showers about extending back to WA. Seasonal temperatures over the north with clear skies, but still moisture impulses working it's way towards the northwest coast.


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