NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - TUESDAY 15TH OF JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Wind and cloud increasing over parts of SA on Tuesday with showers later.

  • Showers easing over the NSW coast and clearance early Tuesday morning.

  • Showers and thunderstorms easing over central QLD.

  • Conditions easing over WA.

A windy day developing for Tuesday over parts of SA with a low pressure system forming in the west of the state. Warm northerly winds over the east will give way to a showery colder westerly shift over the west of SA spreading throughout during the afternoon and the evening.


Showers overnight about parts of the South Coast of NSW near wind covergence eased this morning and clearing skies for Tuesday with a northerly flow developing, drying the atmosphere. Fine weather through much of NSW after a cold start along the divide with morning frost being reported.


Showers and thunderstorms decreased Monday evening after quite an explosion of weather on the radar. More light rain and thunder for Tuesday possible about the eastern inland before the next front arrives and brings more rainfall later this week.


Easing conditions over in WA with a moderating westerly flow, which should begin to turn southerly during Tuesday. Showers clearing later in the day over the Eucla coast back towards the southern coast.


National Weather Picture - Tuesday 15th of June 2021

Upper level low developing over the Bight and deepening. A weak upper trough over the east is bringing mostly cloud, but a few showers and thunderstorms have developed to the west of Brisbane this morning. Upper level trough over Central QLD bringing cloud and some patchy rainfall. Otherwise it is mostly clear and cool to start Tuesday.

Upper low is bringing showers and thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds throughout the southeast WA and a band of rainfall moving into SA. Cloudy back through southeast Australia, but no rainfall at this time.

Temperatures - Valid Tuesday 15th of June 2021

A cool to cold start for most of southern Australia with a deep layer of colder air still under a high pressure system, coupled with clear skies, leading to below average temperatures overnight. Warmer over western QLD and back through the NT with a northwest flow. Cloud over the southeast and south bringing milder temperatures with a northerly wind. Some frost has been reported along the Great Dividing Range this morning.

Radar - Valid Tuesday 15th of June 2021

Upper trough over QLD producing isolated showers and thunderstorms early this morning through SEQ. Some moderate to heavy falls, gusty winds and small hail quite possible this morning through the southeast corner of QLD. More isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout Tuesday.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 15th of June 2021

Modest rainfall events over southern and eastern Australian this week with mainly light to moderate rainfall, a more robust cloud band developing ahead of a stronger cold front over WA may bring more widespread falls east into SA during the outlook period and then onto the eastern inland.

GFS Rainfall 12z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 15th of June 2021

CMC Rainfall 12z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 15th of June 2021

Euro Rainfall 12z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 15th of June 2021


Model Analysis

GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Tuesday 15th June 2021

Surface Pressure Pattern plus rainfall distribution - Valid Tuesday 15th June 2021


Tuesday 15th of June 2021

Upper low over the Great Australian Bight is moving slowly east bringing a wintry blast with it. Weak ridging to the west of the system clearing skies over WA later. A trough in the east bringing unsettled conditions with another weak ridge to the south of that keeping the southeast mostly dry.

Deep low moving into the south of SA with widespread showers and small hail and thunder. A trough over the east with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An unstable easterly flow combining with a weak trough will keep the unstable weather going ahead of the front moving through the southeast. A ridge moving into WA bringing clearer conditions after some morning showers. Fine over the north.

Wednesday 16th of June 2021

Upper low opening up a little but still bringing a burst of wintry weather through southeast Australia. A ridge building over WA clearing skies and easing winds. A ridge over the north building keeping the dry season going. Ridge moving off the east coast with the stable moving off to the east.

Low pressure system moving through the southeast, becoming absorbed into the westerly wind regime with a front producing showers and thunderstorms through NSW and QLD. A cold southwest flow bringing more showers along the SA with local hail and thunder, with showers easing over the southern coastline of WA with a southerly flow.

Thursday 17th of June 2021

A complex upper low with multiple centres moving through the southeast keeping the cold and wintry weather going. A ridge over WA with stable and settled conditions. A weak upper trough over central WA with not much rainfall. Ridging over the north of the nation keeping conditions dry, though a tough more humidity may be developing with a weak easterly flow.

A low pressure system off the NSW coast may bring more wet weather than being advertised. Another upper low bringing areas of rain and cold weather back through SA then into NSW and VIC with light to moderate falls. Some hail and thunder possible in the west of these states and over SA. Fine in between systems over NSW and clearing through QLD. High pressure out west clearing skies along the southern coast of WA.

Friday 18th of June 2021

Upper low consolidating over the Tasman Sea with a colder airmass moving over NSW and QLD during the day. A ridge building through the south and west of the nation with clearing skies and lighter winds. Dry through the north with humidity values starting to be moved out.

Deep low over the Tasman bringing another trough towards the NSW coast, showers are likely to increase with moderate falls in a strong southeast to southerly wind. Showers easing over VIC through the afternoon and evening as the flow becomes more stable. An upper trough over WA may increase cloud cover with the chance of patchy rainfall. Fine over the west and north with less humidity over the Top End.

Saturday 19th of June 2021

Upper low over the Tasman continuing to move east. Upper ridge over WA will continue to drive fine weather as it approaches through the east, with settled skies. A strong cold front will approach SWLD of WA later in the day with a windy flow developing. Heights coming down over the north meaning a reduction in the daytime temperatures.

Low pressure in the Tasman continuing to move further towards the east. Showers continuing for parts for parts of the coast with a strong southerly flow. Upper trough with cloudy skies and patchy rainfall possible. A large high over the nation keeping much of the country dry and stable this weekend coming. A new front approaching WA with winds increasing and showers developing at night.

Sunday 20th of June 2021

Broad troughing over the Tasman extending through the inland of QLD but with high pressure close by Australia, no rainfall expected with this feature. A strong cold front passing through the SWLD with gusty conditions and another wintry spell of weather. Ridging over the southeast will keep the skies dry and clear.

A large high pressure system over the southeast bringing settled conditions with a cold set of mornings over the weekend. Showers will ease over the east coast with a southeasterly flow easing. A strong cold front pushing through the southwest bringing widespread showers and windy weather. There may be a band of rainfall developing on the northern flank of this system.

Monday 21st of June 2021

A strong cold front continues to move east through WA with a low forming off the coast. A strong upper ridge in the southeast bringing more settled conditions and light winds. A trough leaving QLD will remain inactive. Heights about normal over the Top End with seasonal conditions.

Showers clearing the east coast with southeast winds easing. Rain and the odd storm over WA with moderate falls moving east through WA with showery periods to follow for coastal areas. Local hail and thunder also possible with squally cold southwest winds. In the warmer sector, above average temperatures over SA with plenty of sunshine and a strong northerly flow.

Thursday 24th of June 2021

Upper low over the Great Australian Bight with a cold front passing through the nation bringing a cloud band and colder weather. Ridging on both sides of the nation with sunshine and settled weather over the east coast. Over the west, a weak ridge clearing skies for a moment in WA. Seasonal weather over the north.

Widespread showers moving through SA with a low offshore and multiple fronts rotating through the southeast. A trough over the east with patchy rainfall and cloudy skies, but this could be more extensive in coverage as other modelling suggest. A weak high over WA clearing skies and fine over the north.


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