NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - THURSDAY JUNE 10TH 2021

Headlines


  • Severe winds with damaging gusts continue for southern and eastern VIC.

  • Heavy rainfall with flood issues for central and eastern VIC.

  • Showers turning to snow once again over the central and northern parts of NSW.

  • Strong winds over in WA with rain easing through Thursday.

An absolute wild night through parts of southern VIC with a damaging southerly winds wrapping around a low which formed over eastern NSW. A cyclonic wrap of rain and winds extending through Gippsland, over metropolitan Melbourne and into the Riverina of NSW with widespread wind issues across the region.


Heavy rainfall with totals of up to 250mm so far in West and South Gippsland with major flooding occurring along the creeks and river systems in the area. A further 100mm possible out this easterly component before the low begins to open up and become centred further east during Thursday.


Showers in the cold sector on the northern flank of the low has the potential to fall as snow above 500m throughout central and northern NSW with accumulation. Strong and gusty winds could see blowing snow extend down to 400m in some locations. The snow line will lift later today into Friday.


Strong winds with damaging wind gusts over in WA with a second low that is now racing off into the Southern Ocean on Thursday. That will see the rain and strong winds ease later today, but damaging gusts are still possible throughout the day.


National Satellite Picture - Thursday June 10th 2021

An impressive deep dynamic low pressure system over the southeast driving severe weather throughout. Cold air continuing to bring the snow chances up over 500m. A deep low racing southeast of WA seeing damaging winds easing during the afternoon or evening. High cloud over western SA is fair weather. Dry skies elsewhere.

An exceptional low pressure system driving widespread rain, gales and low level snowfalls. Showers and thunderstorms offshore the NSW will arrive this afternoon along the south coast. Fine over SA and western VIC in dry air wrapping west of the low.

Deep low has moved through with bands of mid and high level cloud bringing some showery weather throughout the east and south this morning and a few residual showers over the coastal areas. Westerly winds driving low cloud to the west coast.

Temperatures - Thursday June 10th 2021

Cold throughout the southeast and east with snowfalls still ongoing over parts of the GDR. Frost has developed over southern QLD in dry clear skies with light winds. Dry with frost over Central Australia this morning under a high. Temperatures as low as 5C over north QLD! Warm in the west with cloudy skies and gusty conditions.

Exceptionally cold still over the southeast and east with a cold airmass. Where rain and strong winds are ongoing, note the warmth through the western Riverina with a moisture plume moving north west of the low. Cold through out back SA.

Radar - Thursday June 10th 2021.

Widespread rainfall through southeast Australia with heavy falls. Rain and cold weather extending throughout central NSW. Fine through the southeast in sinking air. Cold with snowfalls developing once again over the northern and central Tablelands.

Rain over the southern coastal areas along a front ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Showers in an unstable westerly wind regime continuing to drive light falls. Otherwise things drying out this afternoon.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday June 10th 2021.

GFS 12z Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday June 10th 2021

CMC 12z Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday June 10th 2021

Euro 12z Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday June 10th 2021

Model discussion and analysis


GFS 12z 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Thursday June 10th 2021

GFS 12z MSLP and Rainfall distribution - Valid Thursday June 10th 2021


Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low continues to drive severe weather through southeast Australia. It is being cradled by a ridge over SA through TAS and into NZ with the low remaining slow moving. Another long wave trough is moving into WA with gusty winds continuing on Thursday.

A low pressure system off the NSW coast with a deep trough and occluded front over southern Victoria bringing widespread gales and heavy rainfall. A cold airmass over the north of the system could bring areas of light to moderate snow along the GDR. High pressure over Central Australia with dry skies. Another front will bring showers as a low moves away to the southeast later today.

Friday June 11th 2021

Deep low beginning to weaken with rain and strong winds also easing during the afternoon or evening. Another upper low approaching WA will bring another burst of rain and strong winds throughout. Ridging in the Tasman remaining the big block for the broad scale weather pattern over Australia.

Rain with some moderate to heavy falls over TAS and eastern VIC with a gusty southeast to southerly flow continuing. Another wave of low pressure bringing widespread showers over the SWLD with a band of rain through the inland with light falls. Broad weak ridge over much of Central and Eastern Australia with skies clearing and winds dropping out.

Saturday June 12th 2021

Low pressure moving away to the southeast with a ridge blocking the Tasman Sea. An upper level disturbance moving through southern WA into western SA bringing the next wave of cold weather. A ridge over Victoria will see conditions improve greatly throughout the day.

A trough moving into SA bringing patchy rain and a lot of cloud through the region. High pressure over NSW keeping the skies clear after morning frost. The low pressure east of TAS will continue to move away with showery periods easing later in the day. Another weak trough over WA bringing showers during the day.

Sunday June 13th 2021

Low pressure moving off to NZ and weakening. Upper trough passing through SA bringing unsettled weather to interior areas and moving east towards QLD. Another strong cold front advancing east through the Southern Ocean into the Bight with increasing winds. Heights about where they should be elsewhere over northern Australia. Temperatures below average over a large part of Australia.

Trough moving into central SA bringing patchy rain and a lot of cloud but moisture is limited here so falls will be light. A weak upper trough may kick off a lot of cloud and patchy rainfall through Central QLD. A strong cold front will approach the SWLD with showers increasing later and gales. Fine elsewhere with temperatures near seasonal over the far north. Dry weather over NSW though cloud increasing after a cold start.

Monday June 14th 2021

Upper level trough moving into eastern QLD with increasing cloud and cooler weather. Strong upper trough moving into the Bight bringing the next wave of cold windy weather. Strong winds easing over southwest WA later with new high pressure moving in. Heights below normal keeping the cold weather going.

Strong to gale force northerly winds developing over SA later in the day with a strong cold front approaching from the west. The upper trough over QLD with patchy rain though light falls for now but will monitor. High over the southeast, weak and easily shoved out by a trough that will move into western VIC with patchy rainfall later. Fine in WA with a strong high on the approach.

Tuesday June 15th 2021.

Deep upper low moving into SA bringing rain and strong winds through the state, reaching western NSW and VIC with late rain. Strong gusty winds. Heights remain below average keeping the temperatures below average. High pressure ridging into the southwest of the nation clearing skies.

Deep low slow moving bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms through southern SA and into western VIC and NSW with light to moderate falls. Strong and gusty winds about. Patchy rainfall about QLD with an upper trough clearing offshore. Weak high pressure over the eastern inland will keep the daytime dry. New high pressure coming into WA will see showers ease.

Wednesday June 16th 2021

Upper low passing into the southeast bringing another round of strong winds and cold wintry weather. High pressure ridge off the east coast and developing over southwest WA. The blocking pattern is over through the Tasman with a zonal flow developing, with a wavy flow between the weak ridges moving through the southern ocean.

A surface low near Robe producing widespread showers and thunderstorms through the southeast with strong gusty clockwise winds. Residual moisture redeveloping into rain over QLD and northern NSW. Another moisture plume moving into northwest WA with light falls and a lot of cloud. Ridging over WA keeping the southwest dry and clearing western SA. Fine with seasonal weather over the north.

Saturday June 19th 2021

Deep upper low in the Tasman with a trailing upper trough bringing cold days and cold nights. A strong cold front starting to emerge from the southern ocean again bringing strong winds into the southern Bight later. Ridging well west of WA keeping skies clear.

Cold through the east with a few showers, some patchy rainfall possible over the interior with a cloud band running through the jet stream. High pressure off WA ridging in keeping the southwest dry. A new cold front on the approach will see showers increasing for the southern coastline later in the day or at night.

Need more information? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for more on tailored forecasting.

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