NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - THURSDAY JULY 1ST 2021.

Headlines


  • Showers increasing over inland parts of the east today with thunderstorms getting involved in the rainfall. Some moderate to heavy falls are possible with thunderstorms and the rain coverage will increase through central QLD down to southern inland NSW, mainly west of the divide.

  • Showers along the east coast continues in onshore winds, some of the showers could be heavy at times with some local thunder.

  • Windy and mild through the southeast with the approach of a cold front in the Southern Ocean, that system expected to bring a burst of cold rain through southern SA later tonight into Friday morning before progressing east.

  • A cold outbreak for the east this weekend, but showers will be coastal

  • Rainfall increasing for WA from Sunday with heavy falls looking more likely as we track through next week, the peak of the wet season over the southwest.


National Satellite Imagery - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021

Upper trough over the east is deepening bringing scattered to numerous showers this morning through the eastern inland. That shower activity expected to increase to periods of rain and a few storms today. A strong cold front now emerging through the Bight will move northeastwards this morning. A fine day through the remainder of the nation.

The cloud coverage has gradually thickened overnight with a trough deepening. Showers have been moderate in some locations. The showers and storms with areas of rain slowly moving towards the south and east. Showers along the east coast have decreased somewhat today, though a few showers and storms are possible about the coastal fringe tonight as the trough moves closer from the west.

Temperatures - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021

A milder morning over the nation with a northeast to northerly flow over the east with a high over the east. A humid flow feeding a trough creating cloud and rain fall through eastern inland areas this morning keeping temperatures up. Colder back through the southwest with clear skies and light winds, some frost possible this morning.

Mixed temperatures through the eastern inland with a trough causing cloud and patchy rainfall. A mild to warm day on the way with a humid northeast to northerly flow throughout. A strong cold front will strengthen winds this afternoon and this evening over the southern coastline.

Radar - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021

Patchy rainfall along the trough continues to expand across the inland, heading south through the region. Some thunder has been observed this morning over the inland overnight. Showers along the east coast, some heavy with the chance of thunder with the heavier cells today, also moving more parallel to the coast.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 1st of July 2021

Rain becoming more widespread over the east with moderate falls with thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening over inland NSW and QLD. Showers continuing for the east coast, some of those could be heavy in NSW and SE QLD. Showers extending south through NSW today with mainly light falls. Showers increasing over the southeast with a cold front during Friday with moderate falls over southeast SA and southwest VIC. Then all eyes on the west next week with a series of strong cold fronts bringing rain and strong winds at regular intervals from Sunday.

GFS 00z run Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021

No real change in rainfall for the coming few days over QLD with areas of moderate rainfall, the heavier falls coming down to where the thunderstorms form and that won't be known ahead of time so watch radar trends. Showers increasing over the southeast with moderate falls about southeast SA and southwest VIC. Rain increasing over the southwest of WA, that rainfall making it to the eastern inland later next week.

CMC 00z run Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021

Widespread rainfall over the eastern inland and more rainfall developing over the southeast with another cold front. A strong cold front Sunday with rainfall for the southwest. Overall the pattern is unchanged from last night on this particular model, however the rainfall distribution is on the lighter side.

Euro 00z run Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021

Very good agreement now with the heavier rainfall sitting through central QLD and back to the Wide Bay along a stalling trough later this Friday into Saturday. Widespread rainfall elsewhere with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall connected to thunderstorms. Showers increasing over the southeast with a front moving through tomorrow and showers and rainfall increasing over the southwest of WA, that runs across the southern coastline from mid next week.


Model discussion and analysis.


GFS 00z run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern above our heads

GFS 00z run - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution


Thursday 1st of July 2021

Upper high over the southeast moving slowly over NZ. A trough deepening over NSW and QLD producing inclement weather. A strong cold front is the main feature on the charts, moving into the southeast with a cold airmass to follow. High pressure back over WA with settled conditions. A flat ridge over the north.

Widespread rainfall over the eastern inland today, moving towards the coast with some thunderstorm activity possible along the trough. Showers along the coast ahead of the trough could be heavy and thundery at times in the east. A strong cold front moving up from the southwest with showers developing later tonight about the southeast coast of SA and western VIC. Strong and gusty winds likely to develop later. Fine elsewhere under a broad ridge.

Friday 2nd of July 2021

Strong cold front moving into the southeast but slowing down due to the strong upper high over the southeast Tasman over NZ. A trough over the eastern inland moving towards the coast with inclement weather marching east. Clearing over the interior with a dry airmass with ridging building in over WA.

A trough over the eastern inland producing rain and a few storms through QLD with the rain clearing through NSW later in the day with the trough a touch quicker. Thunderstorms could be heavy over eastern QLD with a flash flood risk through to central inland areas. Showery over the southeast, particularly coastal areas with that shower activity slow to move towards the east. Colder back through SA and fine over WA with light winds under high pressure. Lovely weather over the north.

Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Strong upper trough through the southeast with a cold airmass. A strong upper high over the southeast over NZ continues to be slow moving. Ridging over WA continuing to move slowly east, making room for a large long wave trough to move through on Sunday. Heights below average over the eastern interior with cooler air.

Trough over eastern QLD seeing showers and storms moving east through the day. Again some heavy falls are possible from Central QLD through to the southeast. This activity moving off the coast. Strong high moving into SA but southwest winds on the eastern flank with a low pressure system over the southeast keeping the showery weather going over parts of the southeast. Fine over the southwest with winds increasing, cloud increasing and rain possibly later in the evening with a new front.

Sunday 4th of July 2021

Upper trough over the southeast beginning to open up and move northeast thanks to a high digging in from the northwest over the southeast inland. Trough lifting offshore the east coast with a dry airmass to follow over the eastern inland. Fine weather over SA and the interior. A new wave of low pressure coming into the west.

Showers clearing the east coast early as a trough moves to the east. High pressure moving over the southeastern inland pushing a low away to the east. Cold air remains over the southeast of the nation bringing cold day time temperatures and frosty nights over the inland. Showers and rain over the southwest and west with a front moving through towards the inland. High pressure continues to dominate elsewhere.

Monday 5th of July 2021

Trough leaving the east coast with a weak upper ridge placed over VIC. A strong cold front moving through the southwest once again. And the upper high over NZ remains slow moving if not stuck in the region. Flat ridge over the north with slack upper level winds continues.

Low pressure over the southwest driving cold fronts over the region with showery windy weather continuing. A high pressure system over the southeast continuing to drive fine and stable weather for much of the mainland and southeast. Dry for most places with cool to cold nights and seasonal temperatures.

Tuesday 6th of July 2021

Trough over the east clearing offshore. A weak upper high over TAS extending a ridge back north over the nation. Though heights are coming down with the long wave beginning to broaden and strengthen over the western and southern parts of the nation in a fast flow pattern.

Fine over the east and much of the interior with a large ridge, but it is not as strong as they can be for July. A series of frontal passages over southern Australia continuing to increase in strength with the main impacts being felt over WA where there should be a front every 24-36hrs next week. Seasonal elsewhere temperature wise with plenty of sunshine.

Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Ridging building over the east but it is a mobile weather pattern. A strong front approaching the southwest with another burst of wet and windy weather later. Fine over the north with perhaps a touch more humidity.

Strong high over the east building and moving east. A weak front coming into the southeast may bring windy weather and a shower or two to coastal SA and western VIC later. Stronger front brings rain and strong winds into the southwest with a gusty colder change. Fine elsewhere under this belt of strong winter high pressure.

Saturday 10th of July 2021.

A zonal flow with waves through the westerly wind belt. A weak ridge also rolling through the south of the nation but with the mobile pressure pattern, windy throughout the south with seasonal conditions expected. Seasonal over the north with heights where they should be.

A trough in the east with showers and storms moving from the inland to the east with some moderate falls over the eastern and southern inland in the days prior. New high moving through SA clearing the east later. Another front approaching WA with windy weather and rain developing later. Fine almost elsewhere with a strong ridge.

Comparing the Euro with GFS for the flow patterns to track the consistency in modelling.


GFS 12z run - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Euro 12z run - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.


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