NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - THURSDAY 8TH OF JULY 2021

Headlines


  • Another freezing night for the eastern inland with more widespread frost, the last in the sequence for this period, with light frost expected for elevated areas of the southeast over the coming days.

  • Rain breaks out today for inland parts of QLD into northern inland NSW with moderate to heavy falls possible over NSW with thunderstorms increasing in coverage.

  • Rain clears WA for a day, with a ridge building in but the severe weather and heavy rainfall returns.

  • What about SA and VIC? In between all the action. The latest on when things are set to turn for the southeastern states below.

Cold nights have continued over the southeast with high pressure moving over the southeast inland. The frosts have been severe over parts of the ACT and southeast NSW with light winds and clear skies. Though today the airmass a little warmer throughout the eastern inland so temperatures on the rise.


But with that warmth is some instability layered through the middle and upper atmosphere rolling in from the west. The northern branch of that trough will meet a surface trough over southern inland QLD, which will move southeast into NSW. There is a surge of moisture feeding into this system from the north, the ingredients coming together for areas of rain with a few thunderstorms.


The west has a break from the rainfall today, though some showers passing through from time to time along the west coast in onshore winds will be lighter and few and far between. Another front though is set to approach tomorrow bringing widespread rain once again with thunderstorms and severe weather potential.


Now will these fronts have some impact on SA and VIC? The fronts will make it across, but the intensity of each is still up for debate, sitting about 5 days out. Lets discuss all these things below in the daily wrap and model analysis.


National Satellite Picture - Valid 5am Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Fairly clear satellite this morning leading to a very cold start once again for large parts of the southeast inland. The day will warm up a bit more efficiently this morning over the southeast. High cloud over SA is with an upper trough and front pushing through the Bight. A surface trough over inland QLD will activate this afternoon with cloud increasing and rain breaking out tonight.

Temperatures - Valid 5am Thursday 8th of July 2021.

A very cold start for large parts of the east with severe frosts in some locations and a freeze over the elevated parts of the southeast inland NSW. Seasonal weather throughout the nation with dry season mild nights up over northern Australia. Milder over WA with a westerly breeze.

The fourth severe frost of the week with temperatures well below 0 this morning, with Canberra down to -5C this morning with widespread frost. Frost down through much of Victoria, but note where the northerly winds are over SA, the temperatures in double figures with a milder airmass.

Radar - Valid 6am Thursday 8th of July 2021.

2 fronts on the board this morning with a trough and front the only area of shower activity through western SA but light falls if anything hitting the ground. Otherwise the nation is clear with no major weather issues this morning.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall numbers continue to hold for NSW and southern QLD for the first rainfall event there tonight through Friday afternoon then rainfall over the east coast with southerly winds as the low resolves. The biggest change in the numbers has been the increasing moisture from the northwest and that impacting rainfall for SA and VIC next week. The west stays wet in westerly winds. Isolated showers for the east coast in onshore winds.

00z GFS Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall breaks out over NSW and QLD this evening into Friday, again the chance of some coastal heavy falls with the low moving off the coast tomorrow into Saturday. Then we have a frontal barrage for southern Australia, note the rainfall numbers are picking up through the southern inland of SA and most of VIC into NSW. The heavy rainfall continues for WA with fronts returning next week and watch that moisture coming into the battle zone between the hot weather over northern Australia and the colder weather over southern Australia.

00z Euro Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

A decent rainfall event to develop over the eastern inland, with that lifting off the NSW coast later tomorrow, bringing frequent showers and moderate falls to the east coast north of Newcastle. Showers increasing over the southwest of the nation with a new lot of fronts moving in from Friday. Those fronts will bring showers to much of SA, VIC and inland NSW next week with moisture values increasing ahead of these fronts.

00z CMC Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall breaks out over inland NSW and southern QLD tonight into Friday, with the system moving quicker offshore. Showers increasing for southwest parts of the nation. Note the rainfall more elevated over Ag SA with moisture increasing from the northwest.

The takeaway is the moisture values are improving its relationship with frontal weather next week.


Model Discussion and Analysis - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.


00z GFS Upper flow pattern at 500mb/18000ft

00z GFS Surface pressure pattern with rainfall


Thursday 8th of July 2021

Upper trough moves into the western inland of QLD and NSW linking up with a trough at the surface and moisture to see unsettled weather to break out. An upper ridge over the east moving east. A weak ridge over WA bringing a break in the wet and wintry weather.

Widespread rainfall develops over the southern inland of QLD and northern inland of NSW later today or tonight with thunderstorms also possible with moderate to heavy falls. Fine although cloud increasing through the eastern and southern inland of NSW with mild weather. A few showers possible about the YP in SA later. A westerly wind will produce coastal showers over southwest WA but otherwise it is a drier picture out west. After a cold start inland, the day will be milder.

Friday 9th of July 2021

The trough that brings the rain and storms to inland NSW and southern QLD, moves quickly offshore the east coast with a gusty wind and showery periods for the MNC and Hunter. Fine weather returns to much of the eastern and southeast inland with high pressure digging in from the west. A new front passing over WA with significant shower activity later in the day with gusty gale force winds redeveloping. Fine weather returns to SA with a dry northerly flow developing out west and warming up over the NT and northern WA.

Saturday 10th of July 2021

To start the weekend, the low in the east will continue to bring showers to the coast north of Newcastle with moderate falls, easing later. Fine weather for the remainder of the east under high pressure that will move to the southeast inland later. A front and low with cold air, pushing through the southern Bight and approaching SA later. Fine weather over WA with a weak ridge rolling through. And temperatures above average with dry skies for much of northern WA, NT and Cape York.

Sunday 11th of July 2021

The wavy flow continues to evolve over the southern parts of the nation. 588 upper high over the north brings above average temperatures but to the south of that, the wavy flow with embedded fronts continues the showery bursts for much of the south. The battle zone between the strong fronts to the south with colder air and the warm air to the north with the upper high will see cloud increase over the interior.

The fast flow pattern continues to move on into Sunday, with the high over the southeast inland quickly moving southeast of the nation. A front and low brings showers through SA into VIC with the chance of some thunder. Showers clear the east coast as the airflow stabalises and tends light and variable. A new strong front offshore WA will bring yet another burst of strong winds and heavy rainfall to the west coast, with severe weather potential. And the above average dry season weather will continue over the north.

Monday 12th of July 2021

Upper trough and low through the southeast brings scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm with low hail risk. Showers may increase over the southeast coast of NSW with a trough offshore. Strong cold front through the southwest of WA brings gales and further rain areas, with moderate falls from Sunday night through Monday. Fine weather elsewhere, the temperatures remain above average over the northern parts of the country.

Tuesday 13th of July 2021

I am going to apply a low confidence forecast to the rainfall distribution on Tuesday.

A cloud band develops over WA and brings areas of rain from interior WA through SA later in the day with a cold front moving over southern SA into western VIC also bringing areas of rain. Fine over the southeast ahead of the front with warmer weather developing. Showers continue over southwest WA with another front rotating through with gusty conditions.

Wednesday 14th of July 2021

The low confidence forecast continues for the rainfall distribution.

Showers with areas of rain through SA moving into VIC and inland NSW with gusty northwesterly winds. A long fetch westerly with more frontal weather brings showers to the southern coastline of SA extending back into southwest WA. Another front over southwest WA could increase the coverage rainfall once again and introduce hail and thunder. Fine over the northern half of the nation with temperatures slowly coming down from the above average values.

Thursday 15th of July 2021

The low confidence forecast continues

Widespread showers through southern WA, SA into VIC, TAS and southern and eastern NSW west over the divide, in a broadly unstable westerly flow. Strong to gale force winds will continue for pockets of the coastline. Through inland areas fine weather expected under a subtropical ridge and the temperatures back to seasonal values over the northern tropics.

Friday 16th of July 2021

Widespread showers contracts into southeast states with strong to gale force winds, showers local hail and thunder and more snowfalls. A high clears the west and a dry season surge into northern Australia. But this low confidence forecast continues. The weather could be impacted by further frontal weather with the models divergent today. But good to see what the models are thinking out in the medium term.

Saturday 17th of July 2021

Taking it out 10 days and you can see the deep trough over the east driving the wintry weather, a weak ridge over the southwest with fine weather for SA and inland areas. A new long wave off the WA coast will move in for later in the day, and the broad upper high over the north keeps temperatures at seasonal to above average.


Cold with showers over the southeast with local hail and thunder contracting east. Snowfalls continues for the southeast. Another front approaches WA with showers increasing later in the day. Fine weather over inland areas with the subtropical ridge continuing. Again we have seen different looks at this with more colder wetter weather for southern areas of the nation to continue.


Need more weather information? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for tailored forecasting solutions.

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