NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - THURSDAY 3RD JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Rain and thunderstorms moving through southern QLD, most of NSW and drifting into northern VIC on Thursday.

  • Showers easing for SA.

  • Fine and mild to warm over the west.

  • Dynamic weather system still on the cards next week.

Overnight we have seen widespread rain and thunderstorms pushing slowly through southern QLD and NSW with moderate falls observed over scattered locations. The rain has also been quite productive through southern QLD as well. This band of rain is expected to contract further east on Thursday with another round of storms, some strong over northern NSW and southern QLD today.


The rain has largely ended for SA with a few residual showers expected today, and indeed for parts of VIC and TAS with a weak shortwave passing through. This shortwave will help to push along the upper low and trough through the eastern inland further east into Friday.


The pattern flip sees fine and dry conditions continue for WA with a large high taking full control. After another cold start, conditions should warm up nicely with winds veering into the east.


It will also be rather warm and fine through northern and central QLD just north of that trough which will pass to the south. Hot over the NT with a tad more humidity leading to a risk of morning showers offshore the coasts during the morning.


We still have a dynamic weather event to unpack next week which does have severe weather potential for the southeast, but as I have been alluding to for days now, the position is still up in the air but we will have a look at what the latest data tells us.


National Satellite Imagery - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

A deep upper trough is producing rain and a few storms over southern QLD, NSW and northern VIC. This is contracting further east today with rain easing from the west during the day. Some heavy falls are possible. Thick cloud extends through to WA though most of this is fair weather with high pressure close by. Low cloud about the QLD coast is producing a few showers. Low cloud about the southern coast of Australia is producing a few showers in patches.

Widespread rain is currently in progress. Overnight we saw 20-30mm over northwest NSW. That rainfall is extending south and east into the remainder of NSW and QLD with moderate falls. 10-20mm recorded through central NSW so far. The rain and thunderstorms will clear from the west later.

Radar Imagery - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Widespread rain with a few storms stretching from QLD through NSW and the ACT down into northern and eastern VIC will slowly move east today and clear from inland areas tonight and from the coast tomorrow.

Temperatures as of 6am EST - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Cool in the west this morning under clear skies and light winds. Some local fog will clear away mid morning. Milder over the east with cloud and rainfall. Warm and humid over northern Australia with higher precipitable water values in the region.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Rain continuing today will form part of the rainfall over the coming 10 days out east. Another system is forecast to rear up from the south of the nation. Widespread showers expected over the southeast from early next week with another major rain band to develop for the eastern states, though likely to peak through NSW and VIC. Another burst of rainfall expected for the northwest of the nation with the next front with rain increasing later in the period for WA.

GFS 12z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

CMC 12z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Euro 12z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Model Analysis and discussion

GFS 12z 500mb/18000ft flow pattern above our heads - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

GFS 12z MSLP and rainfall distribution - Thursday 3rd of June 2021.


Thursday 3rd of June 2021.

Upper low moving through NSW will open into a trough bringing cloudy wet weather to the east coast. A weak cold front approaching the southeast of the nation may catch the upper low invigorating the system later today where another surface low may form. Ridging out west will continue to strengthen with settled weather. Heights about normal elsewhere with above average temperatures for northern NT and QLD.

Rain currently falling over NSW and southern QLD, with some heavy falls will slowly move east, and will be picked up by a weak shortwave over the southeast invigorating the system once again later today. That will see another surface low form over central and southeast NSW before it tracks offshore. Dry weather essentially for the rest of the nation, though some patchy rain under a middle level cloud deck is possible from Tennant Creek through to Longreach north of the main lifting mechanism.

By tonight the rain is moving offshore with rain tending to showers from the west over the coastal fringe of NSW and clearing offshore QLD overnight. Some of the showers could be heavy about the Sydney or Wollongong coastal areas with a low sitting offshore. Strong southerly winds developing overnight into Friday. Showers developing this afternoon and this evening with another front approaching from the southwest over SE SA, southern VIC and TAS. Cloudy over northwest WA keeping temperatures down but no rainfall at this stage.

Friday 4th of June 2021.

The upper low moves further east off the NSW coast being captured by that front over southeast Australia on Thursday night. Heights coming down over the northern parts of the nation with falling temperatures for southern NT and QLD. A new ridge of high pressure pushing into SA will clear skies, while keeping WA mostly dry.

Showers about the east coast will continue to ease through the afternoon on Friday though clearer weather for the inland will resume. Clearing over southeast Australia with that high nosing in during the day. The Top End may have a few morning showers. Cloudy skies persisting over northwest Australia but no rainfall expected at this stage. Fine and warm in the west under the ridge.

Saturday 5th of June 2021.

A wavy zonal flow to the south of a strong ridge over southern Australia is a sign of what is to come next week, the ridge being flattened by that northward push of the westerly winds. Trough well and truly into the Tasman Sea now and weakening. Heights coming down over much of the Top End seeing temperatures come down though it may still be humid.

A high in the east of the nation directing the northwest wind regime bringing fine and warmer weather to the southeast and east, as cold fronts begin to move northwards through the southern ocean. These cold fronts with the high will see strengthening winds over SA, VIC and TAS and bringing a few showers. A few showers about the east coast of QLD north of Rockhampton, a few showers about the eastern Top End in easterly winds. A few showers about the southwest of WA with a weak front sliding through the SWLD with a cooler shift.

Sunday 6th of June 2021.

Strong long wave gathering pace roaring up from the southwest over the Great Australian Bight. A flat ridge over much of southern Australia keeping things dry for now. Lower heights over northern Australia with seasonal temperatures though humidity may persist. Unstable northwest winds may bring a front through TAS later in the day.

Strong to gale force northwest winds over southeast Australia with severe weather warnings likely for damaging winds. A band of rain moving through the southeast during the day, with moderate falls, and a colder shift to westerly winds later in the day over SA. Showers to follow will contain hail and thunder. A few showers over the QLD and NT coasts with easterly winds. A cloudy day for NW Australia but no rainfall expected. Dry weather expected for WA with a high scooting through to the south, with warming temperatures.

Monday 7th of June 2021.

Strong upper trough moving into the Great Australian Bight with a series of wave rotating around a deep low to the south of the nation, the lead front will be moving through into the eastern states, knocking out the ridge over NSW. A new ridge over WA strengthening creating a high amplitude pattern, allowing that cold southerly surge to maximise over SA during early next week. Heights about where they should be for this time of year elsewhere, though a weakness over QLD could see a little uptake in the number of showers.

Strong upper trough moving into the Great Australian Bight with a series of wave rotating around a deep low to the south of the nation, the lead front will be moving through into the eastern states, knocking out the ridge over NSW. A new ridge over WA strengthening creating a high amplitude pattern, allowing that cold southerly surge to maximise over SA during early next week. Heights about where they should be for this time of year elsewhere, though a weakness over QLD could see a little uptake in the number of showers.


Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Deep upper low over SA with very cold conditions with severe weather risk over the southeast of the nation. High pressure on both sides of the nation helping to promote this upper low to be slow moving and peak over the mainland early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms breaking out over QLD and NSW with some severe thunderstorms possible. A deep low forming over Mildura will produce further areas of rain and thunderstorms with a hail risk. Showers and strong cyclonic southwest winds with local hail and thunder with some heavy falls for the southeast of SA. Warm in the west with fresh to strong northeast winds developing, rain just offshore for now, but we have seen different looks on this system out west so watch this space. Fine elsewhere with a few showers possible over QLD and the Top End.

Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Deep upper low over the southeast continuing to drive severe weather with significant winds, rain and thunderstorms over the region. Heights well below normal will support snowfalls developing over higher ground from the ACT through to VIC. Fine elsewhere with ridging breaking down over WA. Cloud increasing along the west coast of WA with rain developing at night. Fine over northern Austrlaia.

Severe weather with gales and showers for the southeast, with moderate to heavy falls. Snow developing down to low levels. Showers and thunderstorms continue for the east coast but this will clear offshore later. Showers with local hail and thunder for SA continuing with moderate falls. Rain developing over WA later in the day, with heavy falls about the SWLD. A morning shower over the Top End.. Dry elsewhere though quite cloudy over interior parts of WA, which could easily turn back to rainfall as we get closer.

Thursday 10th of June 2021

Upper low over the southeast remains slow moving continuing the severe weather threat for the region and very cold weather over the southeast. A front pushing through WA with another area of severe weather risk. Heights well below normal over a lot of the nation with the ridge over SA weakening throughout the day.

Bands of rain and strong winds with heavy snowfalls for southeast NSW and northeast VIC continuing on Thursday with gusty winds. Some heavy rain also possible near southwest VIC and SE SA where the strongest onshore flow will be. Clearing over the east coast in a dry slot and gusty west to northwest winds. Rain tending to showers over WA with the front breaking down as it is forced south with the block over the southeast of the nation. Fine over the north of the nation. Rain continues for parts of NW Australia with an in feed of moisture. Fine elsewhere.

Friday 11th of June 2021

Upper low weakening and being shunted south of VIC with a strong onshore southwest flow continuing. Strong ridge in the Tasman Sea continuing to block the passage of weather out west but the long wave continues to build off WA. Heights below normal for a large part of the country but a ridge building back in over QLD will clear skies.

Showers and gales easing for the southeast, with showers becoming less frrequent. A number of shortwaves over the Bight will bring a lot of cloud and patchy rainfall. Another front over WA bringing showers and strong winds to the SWLD. Patchy rainfall still ongoing through the northern interior of WA. Rain may develop along the QLD coast with an upper trough and onshore winds but this is low confidence, so we will call it dry for now.

Saturday 12th of June 2021

Upper high over the Tasman near stationary blocking the zonal flow over the southeast. A weak front will be passing over the Bight bringing windy conditions to the southeast. Heights about where they should be elsewhere.

Rain breaking over QLD in onshore winds with an upper trough in the region. Rain at times through inland WA spreading to SA with a large cloud band. Weak front on the approach to the southeast bringing late showers to southeast SA and VIC, with heavier rainfall expected in TAS. This is a low confidence forecast and expect it to change.

Euro 12z 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Thursday 3rd of June 2021.


Monday 7th of June 2021

Similar to GFS with a strong upper trough and long wave passing through the Great Australian Bight with ridging on both sides of the nation. This would bring severe gales to the southeast of the nation.

Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Similar to GFS, strong upper low over VIC bringing a severe weather risk to the southeast with widespread rain around that feature. Thunderstorms breaking out in the warm sector over NSW and QLD could be severe under current guidance.

Wednesday 9th of June 2021

Slow moving upper low over VIC bringing severe weather through the southeast with widespread rainfall, strong to gale force clockwise winds and low level snowfalls possible.

Thursday 10th of June 2021

Like GFS, the upper low gets stuck over the southeast thanks to a block in the Tasman increasing the risk of severe weather for a number of days over the east and south with strong to gale force winds and widespread rainfall, some heavy.

Saturday 12th of June 2021.

Like GFS, weakens and shoves the system southwards off the VIC coast with conditions easing and a new wave of low pressure passing over WA later next week would bring a rainfall event out west.


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