NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - THURSDAY 22ND JULY 2021.

Headlines


  • A very cold start to the day over the eastern inland with freeze conditions along the divide and frost widespread throughout the plains, some severe.

  • Rain spreading through to the east in SA with light to moderate falls observed.

  • Rain moves east through to NSW this afternoon ahead of a wet and cold Friday for light to moderate rainfall.

  • Wintry outbreak still expected this weekend with severe conditions for Farmers and Graziers.


National Satellite Picture - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Satellite Image shows that rain event moving through SA this morning with widespread light to moderate rainfall about. About 10mm so far for many locations along the EP and into the YP and even 5mm through outback. The rest of the nation relatively clear with a very cold start for the east and southeast. Cloud will progress eastwards through the day.

Temperatures - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Very cold in the east as a deep freeze and snap frost for many this morning, with temperatures well below average. Out west, the temperatures are above average with cloud and higher moisture levels this morning. Cooler over the southwest but still seasonal and seasonal weather over the northern parts of the nation.

A very cold start to the day over the east and southeast. -9C is the coldest recorded down at Bredbo this morning in the southeast. Glen Inness -7C, Canberra -6C and Goulburn and Orange -5C

Radar - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

The rain is spreading east and moderate falls knocking on the door of Adelaide this morning. The rainfall expected to steadily move east and reach the western parts of NSW this morning into this afternoon

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Rainfall again is largely unchanged -I promise you I do different charts, but there is no change to this stubborn weather pattern so it is the same situation with the fast flow pattern to the south and dry weather under the subtropical ridge over the central and northern parts of the nation.

00z GFS Rainfall for the next 16 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Rainfall spread again, largely unchanged for the next 2 weeks, I was hoping to see some moisture build through the inland areas but not to be. The frontal barrage expected to continue right through until the end of the first week of August at this stage. So more of the same for the north, hot and so dry, for the south, squally winds at times with showery periods and cold blasts to continue.

00z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

The Euro supports that same pattern as the GFS, though will be keeping an eye on the moisture values out west next week with a rain band possibly developing over inland WA which could spread into SA this time next week.

00z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

CMC shows that moisture a little better through outback WA into SA with rain increasing next week. But before then, the frontal weather will bring wet weather to the southern third of the nation while the northern two thirds remain dry and warm to hot!

00z KMA Rainfall for the next 10 days - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

I thought I would show the KMA which indicates more moisture spreading through the nation with the low today and again next week with frontal weather picking up the moisture coming out of the Indian Ocean.

Model discussion and analysis


00z GFS Upper Air Pattern and about 18000ft - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

No change once again, with the zonal flow over the south with the embedded waves to continue over the next two weeks. That means the north stays dry and warm to hot under an upper high. There may be a southward progression of the ridge as the westerly wind belt relaxes at the end of the first week of the August, which may shift the weather. But would like to see more signals from other medium term modelling.

00z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Frontal weather to remain frequent over the south with a persistent ridging through the guts of the nation meaning weather will stay largely unchanged. The strong fronts to come are Friday into Saturday, another Sunday, another Tuesday into Wednesday for the south, another out west Thursday that moves east on Friday with another series of fronts next weekend. Then another wave of frontal weather expected the following week. Each of those have a chance to link into moisture sitting offshore the NW of the nation to bring areas of rain inland.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Similar wavy flow on the Euro this morning. The low pressure system coming through the eastern inland over the next 24 hours could deliver more rainfall than previously modelled for the eastern inland of NSW to central SA. Then we have the frontal weather that again is looking like it may come through a little further north than what the guidance suggested yesterday. Then we have westerly winds next week which could bring showery weather early next week from WA through to the southeast states now, with the ridging over southeast QLD not as strong, so we need to watch the weather systems as a fluctuations will change the temperature and rainfall spread.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Moisture still looks very promising with this low moving through SA into NSW and we can see that reflected in the widespread rainfall, albeit that it is light to moderate rainfall, the moisture values have verified and has influenced rainfall distribution. Moisture is near normal for the frontal passages this weekend, not as moist as last weekend, but there will be a good coverage of showers over the southeast states. Then next week a front will sneak through with further areas of light rainfall over the southeast while in the west, more rainfall for much of next week with a deeper moisture layer which could see a rain band form. The models will have a better look at that during the weekend once we get a few weather systems off the board.

And there is the cloud band that I am talking about at the end of next week, which will be now part of the Northwest Cloud Band Watch throughout the coming days.

More weather details to come including your state by state wrap soon and a look at a 2 week outlook plus talking early onset rainfall for the north.

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