NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - THURSDAY 17TH OF JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Widespread showers and storms in the east overnight.

  • Another cold front to bring widespread showers and some thunder to SA and western VIC and NSW tonight.

  • Warming up over in the west.

  • Another large rain event looms next week.

Extensive shower and thunderstorms activity has netted some reasonable rainfall during the past 24hrs with some decent totals scattered throughout. A cold front that brought the showers and storms is lifting off the east coast with drier air in toe. A low has formed along the southern branch of the cold front driving strong winds in the south.


Another front riding up from south of SA is producing more cloud and showers today, tending to rain over the Lofty Ranges with moderate to heavy falls about. Some local hail and thunderstorms are possible throughout southeast SA and extending into western areas of VIC and southwest NSW this afternoon and tonight.


Warming up over in WA, after a cold few days under a ridge to the west and southerly winds. The winds tend light today before they shift into the northeast on Friday and strong northwest winds over the weekend ahead of the next cold front and trough.


That front and trough looks to combine with deep moisture coming out of the Indian Ocean producing a major cloud band, areas of rain and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls scattered over the outback of WA and into SA then eastern inland of Australia later next week.


National Satellite Picture - Thursday 17th of June 2021

Deepening low offshore NSW coast triggering showers and windy weather about the southeast. A large cloud band is largely in active over much of the nation bringing little rainfall. A cold airmass moving north through the Bight towards SA with showers increasing today.

Showers and thunderstorms circulating around a low pressure system offshore the southeast is continuing to move away from the southeast coast of NSW. Widespread showers clearing offshore the NSW and QLD coast this morning. Showers increasing southwest of SA moving north today.

Radar - Thursday 17th of June 2021

Showers over the southeast with windy weather easing today. A secondary burst of showers offshore SA is moving north with increasing cloudiness and wet weather today for much of SE SA and western VIC and NSW.

Temperatures - Thursday 17th of June 2021

Cold throughout the southeast in the wake of the low and cold front that charged through overnight bringing widespread rainfall. Milder and more humid through eastern QLD and northern parts of the nation with light winds. Cold back through inland WA with some morning frost and fog patches expected.

Rainfall observed overnight - VIC

Widespread showers brought 20-30mm of rainfall through the Wimmera and North East overnight with 35mm over the high country the best of it. 25mm at Horsham was welcome and the heaviest rainfall of the year so far.

Rainfall observed overnight - NSW

Widespread showers with thunder through the southeast inland netted 30-40mm through the ACT and surrounding inland. Some hail was also reported with thunderstorms. Canberra had 30mm of rainfall.

Rainfall observed overnight - QLD

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with patchy falls. 50mm falls reported around Mackay with strong storms and some areas through the inland picking up 25mm in random scattered locations. The storms did die off before hitting the coast overnight.

Rainfall observed overnight - SA

Scattered showers bringing light falls over the southeast with 5-15mm reported through the Lofty Ranges. Some falls around the VIC/SA border of 10-15mm also reported yesterday with the low moving away.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 17th of June 2021

Another burst of moderate rainfall through SE SA and VIC today with a pulse of colder air. Some locations could see 30-40mm in SE SA today into Friday. Showers heavy at times over the southeast of NSW during late Friday through Saturday with a southeast shift. A large scale rainfall event still unchanged overnight in current guidance though this map will be updated this afternoon.


GFS Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday June 17th 2021

CMC Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday June 17th 2021

Euro Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Thursday June 17th 2021

Model discussion and analysis


GFS 12Z Run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern above our heads.

GFS 12z Run - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution


Thursday June 17th 2021

Complex upper low bringing widespread wintry weather to the southeast on Thursday, though drier through the eastern inland. A high ridging in over WA producing settled weather, heights about normal over the north but a little more humid with a slack upper flow.

Showers increasing over SA this morning with a gusty southerly flow in the wake of another cold front. A deep low moving away from the NSW coast with strong winds easing. Fine over the west though cloudy with another impulse of moisture approaching from the northwest.

Friday June 18th 2021

Upper low over the Tasman Sea bringing cold weather to southeast with a gusty southerly flow. Upper low over WA producing cloud and a little rain at times. High pressure over WA keeping most of the southwest dry though warmer northerly winds developing. Conditions improving over SA.

Showers increasing for the east coast with a low moving northwards through the Tasman with strong winds and heavy seas. Southeast winds bringing low cloud and some showers to the southeast with cool conditions. A few showers over SA clearing early. Patchy rainfall over inland WA with a large cloud band still filtering through.

Saturday June 19th 2021

Upper low and trough in the east moving away. Another weak upper low over WA moving east and clearing to SA. A ridge to the south of that upper low moving through the southeast clearing skies. A strong cold front on the approach bringing the next burst of cloudy windy weather for southwest Australia

Southerly winds strengthening over the Tasman with showers easing through the morning. High pressure over the southeast will keep things clear and sunny after a cold start. Cold front approaching WA later will see winds increase with a few showers developing later in the day.

Sunday June 20th 2021

Upper low developing over WA bringing the next round of severe weather to the southwest of the nation with a cold airmass. High pressure over the southeast keeping things calm and fine with cold starts once again. Low pressure trough lifting off the QLD coast absorbing the upper feature from the inland bringing showers to the coast.

Showers may be heavy at times this weekend over the east coast with onshore southeast to easterly winds. Showers increasing for the southwest of the nation with a large band of rain forming in response to moisture streaming out of the northwest of the nation. High pressure in between all of this will keep much of the country dry and seasonal temperatures returning.

Monday June 21st 2021

Large ridge over the east keeping things settled weather wise over much of the nation. Large upper low with a surface centre underneath that bringing the next round of severe weather to the southwest of the nation. Trough of low pressure offshore QLD bringing more showers to the coast but clearing from NSW as heights pick up.

Rain with some heavy falls over the northwest of the nation extending southeast into a cold front moving through the SWLD, I do believe there will be a better connection being displayed. Showers easing over the east coast with winds tending more stable easterly with a high on the approach. High pressure over the southeast keeping much of the region dry and settled.

Tuesday June 22nd 2021.

Upper low over the SWLD moving east and linking with a trough over inland WA. Heights over the east coming up under a broad ridge, so much of the south and east of the nation remaining dry early next week with warming temperatures. Dry over the northern parts of the nation.

Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms over the southwest of the nation extending north through WA beginning to be propelled through to the southeast into SA and bringing with it moderate rainfall. Showers possibly about the QLD coast easing. High pressure over the southeast keeping conditions dry and settled with a freshening northwest flow. Cold back in the southwest with showers as a high ridges in and a low offshore the south coast.

Wednesday June 23rd 2021

Upper low broadening over SA with a cold rainy airmass moving eastwards. High pressure over the east beginning to weaken and broaden as a zonal flow becomes established. Heights coming down over much of the nation meaning more cloud and cooler weather on the way.

Deep broad low over the Bight driving showers and storms through southern areas of the nation. A trough will extend into the east bringing showers and areas of rain with moderate falls to SA into NSW and VIC later. Gusty northeast winds developing over the southeast lifting temperatures. Showers along the east coast increasing with an unstable flow in response to the approach of the trough to the west. Drying out over WA with a flat ridge extending in from the west.

Saturday June 25th 2021

Upper low over Victoria with a cold airmass and wintry weather. A new long wave coming into the southwest of the nation and a strong ridge over NZ. That will keep the weather amplifying through southern Australia with a zonal flow established.

Showers and cold weather over the southeast with possibly snowfalls developing over lower elevations. A weak high in it's winter position producing fine weather for the interior. Showers and patchy rainfall clearing the east coast with a trough lifting out. A new wave coming into WA with rain and storms with strong winds, if this all verifies being that it is 10 days out.


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