NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - MONDAY JUNE 7TH 2021

Headlines


  • Strong cold front advances from the southern ocean into SA late today.

  • Damaging winds a threat through large parts of the southeast today and tonight.

  • Severe weather potential remains for large parts of the southeast and east.

  • Severe weather potential for the southwest of the nation mid to late this week.

An active period weather is set to unfold over coming days with a strong cold front rearing up from the southern ocean to bring initially, strong to gale force and squally northwesterly winds and a band of rain for SA and VIC later Monday into Tuesday.


Damaging winds will be a theme this week, with multiple states likely to feel the impacts of the front initially but more broadly the impacts of a deep low set to develop over western NSW on Wednesday before moving to the east on Thursday and becoming slow moving.


Severe weather potential for damaging winds initially will become more widespread over the east. Then a heavy rainfall threat leading to flash flooding for parts of the southern NSW coast and or Gippsland during mid to late week. Position of the low is key to this unfolding.


Low level snowfalls still expected over parts of northern and central NSW and then again over the ACT and Monaro with the colder air riding into the moist onshore flow in southeast to easterly winds. That could be quite a dumper down there if it comes together.


Severe weather potential will occur over the southwest of the nation with the approach of a deep low offshore, which may scrape the Capes as it moves southwest of Perth. Gale force winds becoming damaging with a burst of heavy rainfall later Wednesday through Thursday. Another stronger system will approach during Friday.


National Satellite - Valid Monday 7th June 2021.

Vigorous cold front making an approach to the southeast bringing up the chance of damaging winds on Monday. Cloud passing over the southeast is fair weather high cloud for now with ridging keeping things stable. Cloud offshore WA is in association with a developing low pressure system. Cloud over QLD is due a weakness in the ridge. Fine and clear elsewhere.

A closer look at that vigorous southerly surge denoted by the speckled cloud with cold air showers and thunderstorms moving towards the mainland. A band of rain is developing on the front itself offshore, and will approach tonight.

Temperatures - Valid 6am EST Monday 7th of June 2021.

Cold with areas of frost of Central QLD down into NSW this morning. Frost also about the red centre but a nice warm up expected over the east and south today with a warm northwest flow developing. That warmer air already having an impact on temperatures across the southeast with gusty winds. Much drier and cooler over northern Australia this morning.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 7th of June 2021

GFS Rainfall next 10 days - 12z run - Valid Monday 7th of June 2021

CMC Rainfall next 10 days - 12z run - Valid Monday 7th of June 2021

Euro Rainfall next 10 days - 12z run - Valid Monday 7th of June 2021

Model discussion and analysis

GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Monday 7th of June 2021

GFS MSLP/Precipitation distribution - Valid Monday 7th of June 2021


Monday June 7th 2021

Strong long wave moving through Bight as we can see in real time this morning, dragging up those very cold temperatures and way below average thickness values. Ridging over the east moving offshore. Strong ridge back in SW WA will continue to cause settled conditions.

Rain developing over SA and western VIC tonight, before spreading through VIC and TAS overnight. The rain developing early in the morning for southern and western NSW with a very cold airmass moving east tonight. A few showers about the QLD coast this morning and the NE of the NT. Otherwise it is dry and cool in the west, warmer in the east than average with strong winds.

Tuesday June 8th 2021

Deep upper low starting to form over southeast Australia with strong clockwise winds at the surface near a developing surface low. The severe weather potential continues. Ridging back in the west keeping skies dry, though a developing low offshore will strengthen winds there. Becoming colder through NSW and southern QLD later.

Rain and a few thunderstorms through NSW and southern QLD right on the boundary where the cold and warm air meet. Limited moisture and instability will stifle strong storm development despite excellent wind fields. Showers hail and thunder for the southeast with gales. Snowfalls developing to lower levels later through NSW. Strong to gale force winds over the west with late rain for the west coast as a strong low moves ever so much closer.

Wednesday June 9th 2021

A very deep upper low over Goulburn is producing severe weather through the southeast with way below average temperatures. High over WA being moved east a little further by a low passing closer to the coast bringing a separate severe weather event. Fine over the north though temperatures coming down again.

Very deep low over Goulburn bringing severe weather to the region, with heavy rainfall for the south coast of NSW and Gippsland. Snowfalls developing to low levels near the low and on it's northern flank with moderate falls. Rain clearing the east coast with the leading front moving away. Rain over WA with strong winds continue as the low moves to the south. Fine weather returning to SA under a ridge.

Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low becoming stationary, may recentre north of Sydney with a cold air field on it's northern flank. Ridging over SA keeping the region dry. A low over WA has now moved off to the south, shunted by the block in the east. Cooler air arrives over northern Australia.

Rain with heavy falls and flood risk for the south coast of NSW and east Gippsland with strong to gale force onshore winds. Snow may redevelop in the showers over northern NSW if the low moves a little further north as verified here. Showers and strong winds for WA will ease during the day, though remaining unstable. Fine elsewhere with below average temperatures.

Friday June 11th 2021

Upper low over the east beginning to move south and weaken, but still a severe weather risk for the east and south coasts of the nation. Another long wave trough passing over WA with a front involved at the surface. Heights below average across the nation, with a ridge just off SA keeping the central parts dry.

Deep low offshore becoming weak through the day, rain tending to showers along the NSW and southeast coast of VIC with moderate falls still possible and a strong southerly. Showers maybe some thunder back through central VIC on a feeder band. Showers and a storm for WA with a weaker westerly flow, cutting off into another low over the inland, dragging in moisture from the Indian. Dry elsewhere.


Saturday June 12th 2021

Upper low off NSW continuing to move away slowly. A zonal flow over most of Australia will start to move north a fraction with a strong block in the Tasman pushing things northwards. A strong cold front SW of WA will continue to race east, towards the block and then be shunted south.

Low pressure continues to weaken offshore SE NSW with morning showers clearing, though a wrap around band may keep Gippsland wet through the day. Showers and patchy rainfall over WA extending into western SA later in the day ahead of a weak trough. Fine elsewhere though cloudy over QLD with the tail of an upper trough offshore bringing patchy rainfall possibly to the islands offshore.

Sunday June 13th 2021

Upper low off VIC moves southeast. Broad zonal flow begins to develop over the mainland with a cloud band developing in a westerly wind regime. Upper ridge over the southeast clearing skies. Another front moving over WA.

By Monday that front over WA moves east with showers developing in the cold airmass over the southeast. Showers developing over central QLD with an upper trough in the region. High pressure building back in over WA and SA will continue to move east. Dry elsewhere.

Wednesday 16th 2021

Deep upper low once again over the tristate border with cold air aloft leading to further below average temperatures. Ridging over southern WA keeping things dry there, but another wave offshore should approach later with strong winds and colder weather.

Showers and thunderstorms over the east with moderate falls in a colder airmass developing. Weakening ridge offshore WA cradling the system over the east and cutting it off from the fast flow pattern once again. Upper trough over QLD clears offshore. A new wave approaching WA bringing the next batch of rain and strong winds.


Comparison with Euro model for the lead system in the east and the severe weather potential out west.


Wednesday June 9th 2021

Deep Upper low over Sydney bringing severe weather to the region on Wednesday, similar to the GFS in its approach with the ridge to the south cradling the feature and keeping it slow moving.

Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low becomes slow moving, like GFS gets bumped north a fraction in this mornings model analysis, this would bring the wintry weather back north to northern NSW and heavy rainfall may shift a little further north and east as well.

Monday 14th of June 2021

Low has moved well away from the east making way for the next round of strong winds and rainfall for the south of the nation in a strong zonal flow. Similar to GFS but more robust in it's approach so follow up cold and wet weather is highly likely for the south next week

Saturday June 12th 2021

Flat ridge way down south, a strong wave passing over southern Australia within a fast moving zonal flow keeping the wet and windy weather going. Heights below normal for a large chunk of the country will lead to a higher chance of below average temperatures continuing into mid month.

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