NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - MONDAY 19TH OF JULY 2021

Headlines


  • A cold start for inland areas but a dry and mild Monday to follow over the inland, thanks to high pressure.

  • Showers are set to increase from later tonight into Tuesday along the south coast of the nation.

  • Rain creeping closer to WA today expected tomorrow along the west and southwest coastal areas and over the inland.

  • The heat continues for the north of the nation under an upper high


National Satellite Picture - Monday 19th of July 2021

Satellite shows that deepening low offshore the west coast bringing in a large mass of rainfall to WA on Tuesday as the pressure system rolls through. Cold front south of SA is surging north this morning and will look much clearer on the satellite this afternoon as it rolls up from the south. High cloud over the north of the nation is associated with a moisture plume pushing eastwards.

Temperatures -Monday 19th of July 2021

A cold start over the south and eastern inland with light winds and some morning frost about. The day will warm up more freely than recent days with a high moving over and leading to plenty of sunshine. The warm weather continues over the northern parts of the country with above average temperatures continuing overnight and during the day. Cloud over the southwest of the nation keeping the overnight minimums elevated.

Morning frost over the GDR will clear up over the coming hours with a sunny dry day once the fog also lifts in some locations. Warmer starts over the coastal areas thanks to the onshore winds and low cloud and showers about.

Radar - Monday 19th of July 2021

Drawing out the fronts this morning you can see the organised batches of rainfall offshore, the secondary front is the one to watch for SA, VIC and TAS. Some of that rainfall will spill into southern NSW during Tuesday.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Monday 19th of July 2021

I have lifted the rainfall totals a tad for southeast Australia and over the Alpine areas where the precipitation will mainly be snowfalls this week. No rainfall expected for the north at this stage. So it is a persistence forecast under a zonal flow pattern.

00z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Monday 19th of July 2021

Rainfall again bouncing around for the week ahead, again 3 systems on the board of note to watch for the southern third of the nation. One system is rising up from the southern ocean, another is coming in from the Indian Ocean with a large mass of rainfall over the coming 2 days. Then the low will track eastwards through SA into NSW mid to late week. A strong cold front will then sweep through WA later Thursday and into SA on Friday and then the southeast inland with the potential for more moderate rainfall. GFS bringing through a strong system later this week with severe weather potential.

00z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Monday 19th of July 2021

Rainfall has crept a little further north through NSW into southern QLD in the latest run with the low pressure that comes through during mid to late week from SA into NSW. Otherwise the model is largely unchanged in its rainfall spread. Excellent follow up falls for coastal areas of SA, VIC and TAS with some reasonable falls coming across inland areas of VIC, southern NSW extending west of the divide and over the YP and eastern districts of SA. The later week system will have the better falls for inland NSW.

00z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Monday 19th of July 2021

CMC largely unchanged from last night with three systems on the board and the north stays dry.

Model discussion and analysis


00z GFS Upper Air Pattern and about 18000ft - Monday 19th of July 2021

Upper pattern for the coming two weeks shows that the weather is largely unchanged with the fast flow pattern and embedded waves of low pressure moving west to east with great pace. No blocking pattern identified or a meridional (north/south) movement of the weather. That will mean more of the same as we have been seeing for this week just gone with showery bursts, windy weather and moderate falls of rainfall for those areas exposed to a westerly. The north of the nation, dry and hot!

00z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Monday 19th of July 2021

Underneath the fast flow upper pattern, you can see during the coming 2 weeks about half a dozen moderate frontal passages with bursts of windy rainfall and moderate falls for southern areas, the frontal weather over the latter part of this week will likely bring the most active winter weather and most widespread rainfall, but I think also keep an eye on the low moving out of WA this week, as it could surprise with reasonable falls. Then you can see more frontal weather next week with more rainfall to come.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Monday 19th of July 2021

The Euro is also very similar to the GFS with the fast flow pattern and strong cold fronts passing though. Once again, the low pressure system moving out of the west into SA during mid week, could bring widespread falls for southern SA, and western inland NSW and northern VIC. Then a pair of strong fronts later this week likely to bring windy showery cold weather, very similar to the system that passed through last Friday with rainfall to be fairly similar. But that system also has at times carried a severe weather look to it. Another front looks set to link into moisture next week over WA. Dry over the north of the nation.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Monday 19th of July 2021

A good supply of moisture over WA with the leading low pressure system expected to lift that into a sizeable rain band and push it onto the west coast from tomorrow. A strong cold front to bring a dry surge of colder air over the eastern inland with showery weather to continue under that airmass. But then comes the moisture from WA with the low pressure and it is looking deeper so moderate rainfall possible now into western NSW mid to late week and then a reasonable supply of moisture on the front Friday into Saturday could lead to a rain band to follow that mid week rainfall for the southeastern inland again. Next week the moisture recycles while the north and eastern inland turns dry and sunny with the high cloud clearing.

More state by state analysis to come this morning.

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