• Rain clearing off the east coast.

  • Drier weather returns for the inland with frost risk increasing.

  • Showers at times for the south this weekend.

  • Major weather event update for the south and east next week.

Welcome rainfall for some, not so welcome for a handful, mixed blessings with the upper low that brought soaking rainfall to parts of NSW and QLD during the last 48hrs. A shortwave will catch the upper trough this morning and a low will form offshore, bringing more showers to the coastal fringe and strong southerly winds.

Drier weather with a new high ridging through the south of the nation is expected to lead to clearer skies through Friday and into the weekend, with frost risks increasing for the eastern inland Saturday and Sunday morning.

Showers will appear over the weekend about coastal areas of WA, SA, VIC and in particular TAS with weak frontal systems moving in from the west. Light falls for the mainland but moderate to heavy falls are possible for the west of TAS.

The model madness continues with the major weather event expected over the south and east of the nation next week, which continues to show wild weather with a very cold airmass developing for a good portion of Australia.

National Satellite Imagery - Friday June 4th 2021.

A low pressure system has formed on the upper trough that lifted off the NSW coast overnight. It has been bumped by a cold front which is now moving through southeast Australia bringing showers. A large cloud band continues to run across the mainland however with no instability, it is largely stable with only patchy falls back over WA. Another cold front is south of WA.

A cold front knocking out the low pressure system from the NSW coast, but still strong and gusty winds developing along the NSW coast, with showers running parallel to the coast. The showery focus returns to the southeast coastal areas with the southwest winds.

Temperatures have dropped through much of southern Australia in the wake of the cold front and low pressure through eastern Australia with skies clearing overnight. Warm over northern Australia but the drier southeast surge is not too far away with falling temperatures over much of southern NT and QLD. Warming up after a cold night over inland WA.

Temperatures - Valid Friday 4th of June 2021 6am EST.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

Rainfall becoming widespread over the south and east next week with another strong area of low pressure with multiple bands of rainfall over the east. Rain developing over the west later in the week over WA with some heavy falls possible. Showers possible over the QLD coast developing inland with an upper trough later next week but that remains a conditional risk.

GFS 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

CMC 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

Euro 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

Model Analysis and Discussion

GFS 12z run 500hPa/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

GFS 12z run MSLP and rainfall distribution - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

Friday June 4th 2021.

Long wave trough moving through the southeast clearing to the Tasman this evening, taking a low offshore with it. High pressure moving in the west of the nation strengthening over WA. Heights coming down over the northern parts of Australia with falling temperatures with a dry surge.

Showers easing over southeast Australia this morning and clearing tonight. A few showers and strong southerly winds over the NSW coast, becoming more widespread for a period this evening before clearing overnight. Fine elsewhere with thick cloud over northern Australia with a cloud band running west to east. A few showers possible later about the SWLD of WA.

Saturday June 5th 2021

High pressure moving in a bit more efficiently through southern Australia clearing skies. Another shortwave through the southeast bringing more cold weather and windy westerlies. Another front clipping southwest WA with the zonal flow becoming more dominant south of the nation. Heights near normal over northern Australia bringing a cooler shift for the NT and Cape York, spreading west into NW WA later.

A large high controlling the weather over much of Australia. Strong southerly winds off the NSW coast easing with the showers decreasing early. Fine elsewhere through inland Australia though still cloudy at times over northern Australia. A little patchy rainfall possible over NW WA with moderate falls near the Pilbara coast later. Another front pushing through the southeast later bringing windy weather and late rain to TAS and showers to southern VIC.

Sunday June 6th 2021

A ridge moving into the southeast will clear skies with that ridge extending back to WA. A strong cold front moving out of the southern ocean will strengthen winds over southern Australia later Sunday. Heights about normal over the northern half of Australia for this time of year.

A high pressure system over NSW will bring a sunny weekend to much of inland Australia after cold starts. A northwest flow developing through Sunday will lift temperatures well above normal over the south and east with a tongue of dry warm air coming southeast from the interior. A front rearing up from the south will see strong and gusty northwest winds over SA, VIC and TAS. Late showers developing for SWLD with that strong cold front coming into the Bight.

Monday June 7th 2021

A strong cold front advancing east through the Bight will make landfall over SA and western VIC later. A ridge in the east will start to weaken and head offshore into the Tasman. Another ridge in the west of the nation will strengthen with a high amplitude pattern forming over Australia.

Squally northwest winds over the southeast in advance of the cold front passing east will bring a warm night and warm start, but rain developing from the west during the day with the chance of thunderstorms. A belt of high pressure over much of the mainland is starting to weaken with the front moving northeast. Showers over eastern QLD and NT with onshore winds. Cloudy skies will develop once again over the NW of WA but fine through much of the inland.

Tuesday June 8th 2021

Upper low developing over NSW and VIC with severe weather potential continuing with widespread rain and strong winds. A strong ridge on western and eastern side of the nation with the high amplitude pattern contiuning.

A low pressure system underneath all that will bring widespread showers, hail and thunder for the southeast with rain and thunderstorms developing through the east in the warm sector. Rain developing for the west coast with strong and gusty northerly winds with a low building offshore. A few showers over northern parts of the NT and showers building over the east coast in onshore winds.

Wednesday June 9th 2021

A deep upper low moves towards the east with severe weather potential, cold throughout the east and extending north. Ridging out west gets shoved along with a new long wave building offshore with inclement weather approaching. A dynamic and fluid pattern starting to develop out west will begin to put pressure on the low out east to move along.

Deep low developing over Gippsland under the upper low will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms through the east with severe weather potential. Gales and showers back along the VIC coast with showers easing as you get into SA. Rain developing out west with strong and gusty northerly winds shifting northwesterly. Fine weather generally through central and northern areas of the nation under a high.

Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low cradled by a high offshore the nations southeast will continue to drive severe weather over the south and east with heavy rainfall and gales. Cold with snowfalls continuing over eastern Alpine areas. Another wave of low pressure over WA with strong and gusty winds developing. Heights about normal over the remainder of the nation.

Deep low over the southeast driving strong winds and heavy rainfall somewhere over the southeast with local hail, thunder and snowfalls. Squally clockwise winds continuing. Rain and thunderstorms over WA extending inland with moderate to heavy falls. Dry elsewhere with cold conditions under a strong high over central Australia.

Friday June 11th 2021

A low weakening off southeast VIC with severe weather risk winding down. A zonal flow becoming unstable over SA and WA with embedded fronts in the developing fast moving flow, bringing showers and gale force winds. Fine elsewhere over northern and central Australia

Cold in the southeast with showers and gales easing later in the day. Rain and storms over WA with another wave of low pressure in the westerly winds moving through. Patchy rainfall north over the Pilbara with the next impulse of moisture. Otherwise it will be dry over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia will be controlled by high pressure.

Saturday June 12th 2021

Strong cold front on the west coast of WA bringing a severe weather event during next weekend. A low offshore TAS will continue to fall away to the southeast, with a cold front to piggy back this feature bringing another round of rain into the southeast Australia. Blocking pattern over the Tasman will keep the east coast dry.

Showers and patchy rainfall developing over SA with a weakening trough and cold front with fresh to strong northwest winds. Showers and strong winds over TAS easing during the day with the low moving away. Strong and gusty winds developing over southwest WA later in the day with a strong cold front approaching. A subtropical ridge over central portions of the nation keeping things seasonal and stable.

Sunday June 13th 2021

Strong cold front moves through to Bight waters bringing the next wave of severe weather to the central and eastern areas. A zonal flow over the nation bringing seasonal weather with the wave action over the south. High pressure in the Tasman continuing to hold firm but it is weakening.

A fast flow pattern through the southern parts of the nation with the high pressure belt situated over the central portions of the nation, lifting the westerly belt northwards. An upper trough may bring rain to eastern QLD. Showery periods running through the southern states with fresh and gusty westerly winds.

Lets compare with Euro for the event next week. It is somewhat in agreement with the severe weather threat lasting most of next week before the system falls away to the southeast from Friday. The position of the upper low and deep surface low is still to be determined meaning it is impossible to forecast to such specificity who gets what.

Euro 12z run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Friday June 4th 2021.

Monday June 7th 2021

Strong cold front on approach to the east with strong and gusty winds in SA with widespread rain also starting to break out over the central parts of the nation, heading east by evening. Severe winds may form over SA, TAS and VIC throughout Monday into Monday night with a warm airmass clashing the cold air coming up from the south.

Tuesday June 8th 2021

Deep upper low forms out of the cold front and cuts off from the westerly wind regime over southeast Australia with severe weather potential for multiple states. Ridging back over WA and in the Tasman slowing this system down.

Wednesday June 9th 2021

Deep upper low near stationary over the southeast continuing the severe weather potential over the southeast. A new wave pushing into WA may bring rain to the west coast. The high pressure belt south of the nation is strengthening, stopping the low from moving further along over the east.

Thursday June 10th 2021

Deep upper low near stationary over southeast Australia keeping the severe weather threat going over the region. Long wave trough over WA bringing the next chance of strong winds and rain to WA. Blocking pattern in the Tasman keeping things held up over southern Australia.

Friday June 11th 2021

Deep upper low beginning to weaken over southeast Australia with a blocking pattern forcing the system south, rather than east. That is due to the building long wave over WA and SA bringing the next round of wet and windy weather. The blocking pattern over the east will begin to break down, but will keep the east coast dry.

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