NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - FRIDAY JULY 9TH 2021

Headlines


  • Rain extensive over the northern inland of NSW and extreme southern inland parts of QLD with moderate to heavy falls with local thunder. It continues spreading south and east today.

  • Showers increasing to rain periods over the southwest of WA with moderate falls expected today with some thunderstorms and hail tonight.

  • Fine weather for SA and VIC with a high sitting over the region but rainfall comes back during the next few days and details on that below.

  • Hot hot hot over the NT and northern WA with an upper high moving over.


National Satellite Picture - Valid 5am Friday 9th of July 2021.

Large scale trough deepening over the east with a low expected to form today. Can already see the circulation through southeast Australia this morning. Widespread cloud over the east with rain and storms. Storms have developed further south than forecast too. A cold front weakening south of SA as that encounters the new dominance over the east. A strong front winding up south of WA expected to bring a burst of rain and storms later today.

Widespread overnight rain with some areas recording close to 40mm. Moree 22mm. Tamworth 17mm so far. Charleville 30mm overnight. Storms have developed to the south with the upper trough, further south than expected and are expected to bring isolated falls today of up to 10mm through the remainder of the area, before heavy rainfall develops with a low along the coastal fringe, now expected from Sydney northwards, with showers creeping further south. The joys of fast dynamic low pressure systems!

Strong cold front coming into SW WA today with another band of rain and storms. Note the moisture being lifted into cloud north of the front, no rainfall expected with this but that shows you the Indian Ocean influence is increasing further. Cold air to follow tonight with hail and thunder.

Temperatures - Valid 5am Friday 9th of July 2021.

Mixed temperatures across the nation, you pick out the cloud and rainfall through the eastern inland this morning, with above average temperatures. To the south and west of that, it is cold with light frost over VIC and southern NSW, but nothing severe. Mild back in WA with freshening winds and warm over the north with a little more humidity this morning along the north coast of the NT.

Note that tongue of moisture over the northern inland which saw temperatures rise overnight from a cool start last evening. Cold through the south with local frost, mainly through VIC with clear skies and light winds. Mild weather to follow today with variable winds. Cold and cloudy with rain increasing over eastern NSW.

Radar - Valid 6am Friday 9th of July 2021.

Widespread rainfall over the eastern inland with local thunderstorms today, the storm risk has evolved further south through the Riverina and Southwest Slopes, likely to bring an organised batch of rainfall through the ACT and Southern Highlands later this morning, may lose the thunderstorm activity, but a band of rain on the base of the trough is possible now given the higher convective activity. Rainfall activity generally ending from west to east this afternoon with the trough passing through.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Rain in the east with moderate and some heavy coastal falls possible with a low developing today. Some of this rain will fall today over the eastern inland, particularly over the eastern side of the divide. Moisture streaming through continent bringing light falls of 1-10mm over the coming 10 days but this could increase. Showers/rain increasing over the southwest today and that spreads to the east later Sunday but more widespread from Tuesday onwards with rainfall returning to the eastern inland of NSW and QLD later next week. Rainfall could accumulate to moderate and heavy falls about coastal areas of the southeast and areas exposed to a westerly wind regime.

12z GFS Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Rain in the east moving towards the coast today but returns next week with again another round of moderate falls for inland areas west of the divide, and lighter falls for QLD. Showers increasing over the southern states from next week with frontal weather. Rain, heavy at times for the southwest of the nation with multiple fronts. And keeping an eye on inland rainfall where the battle zone sets up. And all that moisture sitting offshore the northwest.

12z Euro Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Good agreement in rainfall moving east this afternoon and this evening along the coast, though numbers are bouncing around for those living north of Sydney tonight. Showers and rainfall moving back west of the divide through the eastern inland next week with frontal weather moving through the south with rainfall increasing over southeast Australia. Rain heavy at times through the southwest with more frontal weather. And moisture off the northwest feeding the battle zone between the hot air and cold air over the interior.

12z CMC Rainfall - Next 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Widespread rainfall moving through the eastern inland today, but additional rainfall being indicated for the eastern inland of QLD and NSW next week with frontal weather and cloud bands moving through from west to east. Rainfall heavy over the southwest and widespread developing over the southeast with frontal weather becoming more frequent.

Model Discussion and Analysis - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.


12z GFS Upper flow pattern at 500mb/18000ft

12z GFS Surface pressure pattern with rainfall


Friday 9th of July 2021

Upper trough with a surface trough bringing widespread rainfall wintry rainfall through the east today, with a low forming offshore tonight. Another strong long wave passing through the southwest of the nation with wintry weather returning there. A weak upper ridge passing into SA keeping the interior dry and an upper ridge nosing in from the Coral Sea over the north.

Rain, some heavy with scattered thunderstorms along the NSW divide, clearing south and east today. Drier air developing through the eastern inland tonight, clearing skies and leading to a cold night. High pressure settling conditions for much of the south and east by the close of today. A strong front over the west coast brings moderate rain with thunderstorms. Fine over the north.

A deep low with severe weather potential for parts of the Hunter and Central NSW coast tonight with gales and heavy rainfall as the low rotates offshore. Showers clearing the inland but may develop along the entire NSW coast now in a southeast flow. Fine weather most elsewhere, though a front moving through the southwest, weakening over the inland and south coast, will continue to drive rainfall overnight into Saturday.

Saturday 10th of July 2021

Showers easing along the NSW coast Saturday as the low moves away, helped along by a weak ridge that will be parked over southeast NSW. So drier skies developing for the southern coast of NSW. Widespread morning fog and frost over the inland but then dry. A front weakening through the Bight allowing northerly winds to filter warmer air into SA and western VIC and NSW. Fine weather over the north with an upper high building leading to sizzling weather. Fine weather over WA under a weak ridge.

Sunday 11th of July 2021

A morning shower possible along parts of the east coast but dry weather to follow with winds turning northeasterly. Fine weather over the interior and back over the north under an upper high. A cold front gets a kick along with a low forming south of the Bight with front allowed to reorganise and bring more showery weather into the southeast of SA and southwest WA. A strong cold front offshore WA with windy weather increasing temperatures and rain developing at night with heavy falls.

Monday 12th of July 2021

Widespread showers through southeast SA during Sunday night will move into VIC overnight into Monday with a few moderate falls over 10mm for the coastal areas facing west. Showers developing over the southeast of NSW and Alpine area with the chance of afternoon thunder with a trough passing through. Fine weather through much everywhere else away from the southwest, where a strong front brings heavy rainfall overnight Sunday into Monday with widespread showers to follow through daylight hours with gales. Hail and thunder continues.

Tuesday 13th of July 2021

A cloud band developing from the northwest through southeast with patchy rain moving through on the northern flank of the wave action over southern Australia, that will bring bands of rainfall from WA into SA during the afternoon and evening. Fine weather over the east with warmer weather in northerly winds, though cloud increasing. Fine over the north with the heat engine increasing early this year.

Wednesday 14th of July 2021

Showers increasing over SA during Tuesday night into Wednesday with moderate falls possible and some thunder too. Rain through inland SA extending into NSW and southwest QLD later in the evening into Wednesday. Warm weather through the east keeping temperatures above average at night ahead of the rainfall. Showers increasing over the southwest with frontal weather continuing.

Thursday 15th of July 2021

Rain returns to inland NSW and southern QLD with moderate falls on and west of the divide with a front moving through with a moisture in feed from the northwest. Broad area of low pressure over the southern Bight will send fronts and troughs rotating around the centre of circulation bringing more showers and windy weather across southern Australia. Temperatures above average with more humidity over northern Australia.


By afternoon on Thursday the rainfall is out of the east with another front passing over the southeast, more showers and windy weather for southeast SA, VIC and southern NSW, rain heavy over TAS. Another front passing over WA with another moisture in feed from the Indian Ocean brings widespread showers over the southwest of WA with moderate rainfall and gales.

Friday 16th of July 2021

A week from today, that strong front over the southwest of WA consolidates into a strong system that rolls through the Bight. Gales, rain and hail developing for SA, VIC and southern NSW later in the day. A fast moving ridge settles conditions for WA. Fine over the north with an upper high.

Saturday 17th of July 2021

A vigorous cold front passes through the southeast late Friday into Saturday with the gales, rain, showers, hail and thunder with low level snowfalls developing as the long wave passes through VIC and then east of the nation. That plunges the southeast into a gusty southwest flow, bringing more rainfall. High pressure ridging through to SA will ease conditions later Saturday. Cloud increasing over WA with another trough offshore, patchy rainfall possible about the coast later. Fine over the north, with an upper ridge and fine weather returns to QLD, but colder air filtering in later.

Sunday 18th of July 2021

Next weekend is looking cold and miserable about the southeast, but rainfall looks to continue for SA, VIC and TAS with a cold pool passing over the southeast looking reasonable. That will keep the showers going but a high will ridge in from the west allowing the nation to take a breather from the westerly wind belt, however that could allow the flow pattern to become more wavy, bringing in more moisture the following week from the northwest into the next batch of frontal weather.

Thursday 22nd of July 2021

Just taking it out to the northwest cloud band watch zone which I have been profiling here,

there is significant signals for a large scale system moving through from west to east through the period of the 3rd week of July. Something to watch, no confidence given it is in the medium range, but it continues to ping in the distance.

More weather details later today in the National Evening Update but state based forecasts first this morning and a Climate Update near lunchtime, I will take a look at the latest data sets on the talk of La Nina and the Indian Ocean - with the influence on rainfall and temperatures in the coming 4-6 weeks.


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