NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - FRIDAY JULY 2ND 2021.

Headlines


  • Rain continues to impact large parts of NSW and QLD this morning with the focus contracting east and north with a trough. Thunderstorms also likely to feature during the coming 24 to 48hrs with locally heavy falls.

  • A cold blast of air coming to the southeast with moderate rainfall for parts of southeast SA and southwest VIC. The colder drier air will filter through the southeast inland during Saturday with minimal precipitation.

  • Active cold fronts are likely to sweep the southwest of the nation from Sunday with the risk of heavy falls about the southwest.

  • Another looking into the medium term to track the potential for follow up rainfall.

National Satellite Picture - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

Trough continuing to move east this morning through the eastern inland of NSW and QLD taking the rainfall chances with it. A strong cold front is moving through the southeast today and clearly can see the swirl on the satellite this morning, with rainfall moving towards southeast SA and western VIC. Fine and clear back over the west.

The rain will increase again this afternoon with more thunderstorms activity to form within this band of patchy rainfall. Overnight, some of the heaviest July rainfall in years has been observed in parts of QLD and NSW with more to come today and Saturday.

A cold front is moving through the southeast today with a showers increasing to rain over the coast today. Showers with hail and thunder are expected for coastal areas tonight following the front and that will persist into Saturday.

Temperatures -Valid 6am Friday 2nd of July 2021

A warm night over the east with humidity and cloud with patchy rainfall. Also warm over the southeast with a gusty northwest to northerly flow ahead of a cold front that will move through with falling temperatures. Seasonal weather elsewhere with clear skies under high pressure.

A very mild start for a July morning with temperatures throughout about 5C above average in many locations, though what you see on the board through SA and western VIC is likely as good as it gets today with a cold front moving through with falling temperatures and rainfall increasing with a biting westerly wind.

Radar - Valid 6am Friday 2nd of July 2021

Rain focus will be along two bands, one through northeastern NSW through to southeast QLD and up to Central QLD today with another round of thunderstorms to enhance rainfall later today. A cold front moving through Adelaide with periods of rain this morning will slowly move to the east and southeast today and into western VIC this afternoon.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

Widespread rainfall through the east over the 36hrs will continue to move east so expect the rainfall totals to shrink as we go now for inland areas of QLD (probably a bit generous still in inland areas of QLD but will pair this back this afternoon). Rainfall almost all cleared out of the inland of NSW though persisting over the northeast. Rainfall comes back this time next week. Showers over the southeast of SA and southwest VIC today spread across to coastal VIC and TAS Saturday and clears Sunday, more rainfall next week. Rain increasing over the SWLD of WA from Sunday through next week.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

Has the rainfall through the coming 36hrs over the eastern inland and about the southeast over the weekend. Has heavy falls for the SWLD of WA with 3 major frontal passages and a few shortwaves moving through in an unstable westerly flow from Sunday. One of those fronts makes it through to the southern and eastern parts of the nation this time next week.

12z CMC Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

Very similar to GFS.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

Widespread rainfall over the eastern inland with locally heavy falls expected over the Wide Bay through the Capricornia, and rainfall increasing into the SWLD by Sunday. Showers could produce moderate falls over the southeast, which has begun for some in SA already. This run of the Euro way more generous with rainfall for the system over the eastern inland next week.

Model discussion and analysis


12z GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

12z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern/Rainfall distribution - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021


Friday 2nd of July 2021

Strong long wave passing through the southeast today bringing wintry weather, it is helping to push a trough along through the eastern inland clearing the conditions from the west. Ridging on both sides of the nation with settled weather over WA and extending through the north.

Widespread rainfall over eastern QLD and NSW moving slowly eastwards but intensifying in coverage over QLD later today, especially through the Wide Bay and Capricornia tonight. Showers increasing over the southeast with a cold airmass, local hail and thunder expected tonight. Temperatures will continue to fall through the southeast during today with that cold rainfall moving east. High pressure keeping the west and north dry.

Saturday 3rd of July 2021

Upper low over the southeast continuing to move slowly eastwards. Upper high blocking the Tasman over NZ will remain there for a number of days. Trough moving towards the east coast but hanging back over central QLD. Ridging moving east to be over western SA later.

Rain and storms, heavy at times over the eastern parts of QLD. GFS not showing those falls but I am siding with Euro with heavy falls from Hervey Bay up to about Yeppoon through to the inland areas from here. Dry weather for much of NSW with the showers staying through VIC and SA in onshore southwest winds. Light to moderate rainfall likely. High pressure moving into western SA later and fine and warm over WA in a northerly wind. Fine over the NT with seasonal weather.

Sunday 4th of July 2021

Upper trough weakening offshore VIC as it runs into that large upper high over NZ. Another ridge over SA moving eastwards slowly being pushed along by a long wave approaching WA bringing another round of inclement weather. A trough moving off the QLD coast clearing conditions. Fine over the north with a flat ridge.

Rain and storms sweeping into the west coast with a strong cold front, some heavy falls are possible. Showers over the southeast with local hail and thunder moving east and southeast during the day and clearing at night. Fine weather returns to the eastern inland and coast with a colder drier airmass. Fine weather over the northern parts of the nation with a ridge.

Monday 5th of July 2021

A long wave trough over the southwest continuing to bring wintry weather over the region with cold and gusty conditions in a fast flow. A trough leaving the east coast. A weak ridge over SA with conditions remaining fine. The block over the Tasman beginning to move on by a little quicker than previous runs.

High pressure over much of the east and south keeping a good chunk of the nation dry with light winds and cold nights for many. A front moving towards the Bight weakening, with another front to follow later over the southwest bringing more showers and gusty winds. This will be the active part of the nation weather wise early next week.

Tuesday 6th of July 2021

A strong upper low with fronts rotating through the southwest continues into Tuesday. A weak trough over the east hanging on but a ridge building over the region keeping the weather dry. Conditions near seasonal elsewhere with heights where they should be in the upper levels.

Showers and strong winds continuing for the southwest of WA with another front passing through with cold air about the far southwest leading to hail and some thunder. Fine almost everywhere else under a high, that will continue to move east with a southeast flow causing showers to develop later about the QLD coast, but light falls if anything expected.

Wednesday 7th of July 2021

Long wave over the southwest continuing to strengthen with a gusty cold airmass. A ridge over the east continuing to build over the region, but won't be sticking around with the weather moving at pace in the upper levels.

Large cold front standing up southwest of WA bringing another band of rain and strong winds as it rotates through during Wednesday. Fine weather continuing everywhere else under a large ridge with a warmer flow developing over SA and VIC with the high moving eastwards. A few showers possible about the east coast with onshore winds and seasonal over the NT though humidity may begin to increase.

Thursday 8th of July 2021

Long wave lifting out of WA with a gusty wintry flow beginning to advance to central parts of the nation. Ridging through the east will continue to move onwards, with an upper high trying to form north of QLD. A typical winter pattern.

Showers developing over SA with the next front moving into the region, with a gusty northwesterly wind, possibly reaching gale force over the southeast with warmer weather in advance of that cold front. The high moving to the east of the nation, allowing an onshore easterly flow to form, bringing showers. Fine weather over WA briefly with a weak ridge but more frontal weather awaits offshore.

Taking it through Friday and the rainfall moves from SA on Thursday and then builds over the eastern inland with a fast moving front bringing a burst of moderate rainfall. Another front brings showers to SA. A flat ridge keeping the southwest dry but note it is sitting further north, opening the door for more frontal weather, which other modelling is more aggressive with and I will side with that solution.

Sunday 11th of July 2021

Winter time pattern continues into next weekend with two main waves passing through the southern parts of the nation which is fair. A flat ridge over the nation with an upper high way up north. That is how the upper pattern should look for mid July.

Another strong front coming into the southwest with a moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean, which is likely to happen at some stage during the coming 2 weeks. A strong long wave moving through the southeast with wintry weather easing from the west later with a very weak ridge of high pressure coming over SA. Fine elsewhere and near seasonal in a westerly flow.

Lets compare the Euro flow pattern with GFS to cross check the model data this morning to see if we have convergence of ideas or divergence of ideas.


12z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

12z Euro Surface Pressure Patterns 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021

Note that large scale system in about 8 days over WA tapping into moisture!


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