NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - FRIDAY 25TH OF JUNE 2021

Headlines.


  • Rain moves into QLD with persistent light rainfall on Friday. Maybe a few thunderstorms as well in the mix.

  • Showers increasing over the southeast with a cold airmass. Perhaps some thunder and hail involved with snowfalls developing over the Alpine areas.

  • Fine over the west with warmer days in the northerly flow.

  • Humidity sticking around for Friday over the north, but then a refreshing southeasterly surge descends.

A very healthy and productive rainfall event for NSW has concluded with the bulk of the wet weather shift into QLD on Friday. Moderate falls are possible through far northern NSW and into SEQ on Friday.


Showers wrapping around a low pressure system over the southeast is slowly moving towards the east. Showers could be wintry with small hail and a few rumbles of thunder through southeast SA and VIC on Friday. Showers will extend into NSW on Friday afternoon.


Fine weather by contrast over in the west with a high over the region. The cold nights and sunny weather will continue for a number of days before frontal weather returns Sunday with the next wave of low pressure.


Humidity galore up north, feeling more like September at the moment with a few showers and thunderstorms on Thursday to be replicated again on Friday before a southeasterly surge arrives on Saturday afternoon.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021

Broad cloud band stood up overnight and brought better rainfall than forecast by modelling through central QLD extending back to the NT border. Rain is developing through the southeast of QLD as well. Clearing skies over much of NSW with the band lifting off to the northeast and east. Cold pool of air over the southeast triggering scattered shower, possibly thundery today with the day time heating process. Clear further west.

Large cloud band bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms through QLD with light to moderate falls of rainfall moving southeast. Clear over the southwest in drier air. Humid with a few showers over Cape York.

Temperatures - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021

The colder and drier air is moving through the eastern areas of QLD today and the dry surge is moving up north, but it is well and truly warm over the Top End for this time of year with high humidity. Colder weather over the southern and southwest inland under a high pressure zone. Ahead of a trough over QLD, it is mild under cloudy skies with northwest widns.

There is the humidity over the north of the nation, but note the colder weather surging through the south, that is the dry surge southerly winds that is moving north through Friday and will reach the Top End on Saturday.

Radar - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021

A band of welcome winter rainfall through central QLD contracting to the southeast over QLD. Moderate rainfall totals have been observed this morning with thick cloud. Some thunderstorms over the state may bring better rainfall totals.

Rainfall for the past 23hrs to 7am - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021.

20-40mm from the NW through the Central QLD, many areas recording a months worth of rainfall!

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021

Widespread rainfall with heavier falls than indicated in modelling (not a bad thing for QLD) with that rainfall contracting further south and east over the coming 24 hours. Moderate falls still likely. Rainfall coming down over the east over the coming 5-7 days with high pressure in the region, but coming up over WA with a series of strong cold fronts from Sunday onwards.

GFS Rainfall 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021.

CMC Rainfall 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021.

Euro Rainfall 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021.

KMA Rainfall 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021.


Model discussion and analysis


GFS 12z run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021

GFS 12z run - Surface pressure pattern - Valid Friday 25th of June 2021


Friday 25th of June 2021

Upper trough over the east with a broad low east of Melbourne slowly moving eastwards today. Upper high over NZ strong and remaining slow moving . Upper trough hanging back over inland NT but inactive. That is thanks to high pressure moving through the southwest bringing more settled conditions.

Widespread showers over the southeast with a low. Some of the showers could produce small hail and become briefly thundery in the day time heating. Rain through central QLD contracting eastwards with some moderate falls over the east possible. High pressure broadening over the Bight and moving eastwards. Humidity will keep going over the NT today but becoming drier on Saturday.

Saturday 26th of June 2021

Upper trough moving east through inland areas with a shortwave passing over southeast Australia, but the upper high continues to be the dominant force over the Tasman Sea. Large upper high over the Bight moving eastwards through to be near SA later. A new long wave trough over the Indian Ocean bringing wintry weather to the southwest later.

Rain with some moderate falls over the southeast of QLD with a slow moving trough. The rain should contract north of Brisbane during the afternoon. High pressure moving east and broadening over the southern mainland, though will allow a final short wave front into the southeast with late showers for SA, VIC and TAS. Windy in the west with warm conditions as cloud increases with a front on the approach. Dry season resumes over the northern parts of the nation.

Sunday 27th of June 2021

Strong upper high over the southeast with settled conditions. Upper high offshore QLD with settled conditions beginning to resume over much of the east, with the trough weakening offshore the coast. A long wave passing over the southwest of the nation with wintry weather developing. Becoming cooler over the western inland.

Rain and a thunderstorm lifting offshore the QLD coast with a trough moving out to sea, thanks to a high building through the southeast and east and a shortwave passing through to the Tasman Sea. Fine weather for much of Australia, with the wet weather now confined to the FNQ coast and over the southwest with a series of fronts moving through with moderate falls.

Monday 28th of June 2021

Strong upper high over the southeast with stable weather for much of southern and eastern Australia. A weak trough just offshore QLD will move on by to the east. Long wave trough a little further south of the nation but still bringing gusty wintry conditions to the southwest of the nation.

Showers developing along the QLD coast with onshore winds building as the high moves into the southeast of the nation and strengthens. A long wave over the southwest with gusty winds and showery periods persisting with moderate falls about the west coast. Otherwise everyone is fine and dry!

Tuesday 29th of June 2021

Strong upper high moving offshore NSW with that ridge extending back over the eastern inland and through northern Australia. Long wave trough moving into the Bight but weakening due to the upper high in the east. A new ridge trying to move into WA later in the day.

Showers over the east coast in onshore winds, but showers light and infrequent. Showers over the south coast of WA with a front passing south of the region, however we have seen this front stronger and moving over the SWLD with more gusto. Fine weather will persist for most of inland Australia with high pressure, so quiet weather for a lot of Australia.

Wednesday 30th of June 20201

Upper high offshore the east coast with a flat ridge over much the nation. Another long front trying to move into SWLD later in the day. Weakness in the ridge over the northwest of Australia may see cloud increasing. Otherwise it is a fairly settled pattern.

Showers about the east coast decreasing as the airmass stabalises and the winds veer more northeast to northerly. Showers possible about the east coast of the NT. A weak trough over the eastern inland may produce cloud and shower about the eastern inland. A cold front moving through the southwest of the nation may bring some showers to the region, but it is a LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST

Thursday 1st of July 2021

Strong trough on the approach to the central and southeast of the nation with upper high finally moving east towards NZ and another ridge over the southwest of the nation. Upper trough over parts of inland Australia keeping temperatures near seasonal.

Strong cold front moving through the Bight with a very cold airmass descending later. Showers over the east with a weak trough with the chance of some showers but again this is more likely to be offshore. Fine over the north and central areas and back over the southwest with a broad ridge in place and a dry look persisting.

Sunday 4th of July 2021

Long wave trough on to the east with a trough still hanging back over QLD. Upper high over the southwest with a broad ridge extending into the southeast. Settled conditions for much of the nation.

Broad high pressure dominating the national weather picture on Sunday the 4th of July but we have see different looks with widespread rainfall sweeping the nation so again a LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST is being applied.

Need more weather information? Head to the store or email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for more details.





0 views0 comments