NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - FRIDAY 18TH OF JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Cold and showery weather moving through to VIC and NSW on Friday with showery weather easing for SA.

  • Strong and gusty winds over coastal NSW wind large and powerful surf developing for Friday afternoon.

  • Warming up in the west with a northerly flow.

  • Major rainfall event still on the cards next week.

A cold and showery 24hrs over SA has netted some moderate falls once again, especially over southeast areas. The showers have been heavy with parts of SA recieving their heaviest rainfall of the year so far.


The showery weather is moving into the east, but the cold air aloft is mixing out and stabalising a bit so the showers are less intense but should develop once again throughout the eastern inland in cold air. Showery weather will be extensive along the south coast of NSW with a strong and gusty wind flow, some heavy falls may lead to localised flooding over southeast VIC later Friday.


Warming up in the west, it is thanks to a high pressure over the Bight. The winds are tending into the northwest bringing in the warmer air. That wind flow will start to strengthen ahead of a series of cold fronts likely to bring in more wet and windy weather into the weekend and next week. A large scale cloud band will develop over Australia which will see the next major rainfall event spread west to east next week.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

A deep upper low over the Tasman bringing showers and rain into the southeast of the nation. Some heavy falls into the southeast of VIC and NSW is possible. Showers and cold wintry weather for Adelaide and surrounds this morning under a cold airmass. Large cloud band continues to move through the western interior with not much rainfall expected at this stage. New cold front well off the west coast of WA is expected to approach later tomorrow.

Widespread showers, some heavy during the overnight hours has produced significant falls across the Adelaide region and surrounding areas. The showers and hail will continue to ease this morning and clear later tonight.

A large cloud band extending from the Indian ocean into the western interior is currently stable and not producing much rainfall as there is no lifting mechanism, this cloud cover will continue for the coming few days with rain expected to develop from this cloud band later Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

Cold through the southern half of the country this morning with some pockets of frost observed over inland QLD. Warmer over the northern half of the NT and QLD with more humidity in place, which is expected to be moved out today with a southeasterly change expected. Warming up over WA with a northerly flow today.

Radar - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

The wettest part of the nation has been over southeast SA, especially over Adelaide with 40-50mm rainfall reported overnight and the rainfall is still coming down this morning. Showers will ease this afternoon and a good looking weekend is on the way.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

Heavy rainfall over SA has started to ease today with rain also expected to develop over the southeast of NSW with moderate falls extending back into VIC this afternoon with a low pressure system. A strong cold front will move into WA this weekend with a cloud band attached on it's northern flank driving widespread rainfall under a broad cloud band, this weather expected to dominate the weather charts next week.

GFS Rainfall 12z Run - Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

CMC Rainfall 12z Run - Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

Euro Rainfall 12z Run - Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021


Model Analysis and Discussion

GFS 12z Run - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021

GFS 12z Run - Surface Pressure pattern - Valid Friday 18th of June 2021


Friday 18th of June 2021

Deep upper low offshore NSW driving more wintry cold weather throughout the southeast of the country. High pressure ridging through the BIght bringing settled conditions to the southwest of the nation. A weak upper low over central WA remaining inactive on Friday with heights coming down over northern Australia.

A deep low offshore the south coast of NSW will allow showers and strong winds to increase as it passes parallel to the coast today. Southerly winds bringing further showers over southern VIC and SA, but these should ease later today. A nice dry surge coming through northern Australia as a high moves into the southeast of the nation over the coming 24 hours. Fine in WA and warming up with a northerly flow.

Saturday 19th of June 2021

Upper low over the Tasman Sea bringing wintry winds to the east coast. A trough hanging back over NSW and QLD will increase the chance of showers in the east. An upper low weakening over SA/WA border. A new high pushing into SA easing the cold southerly winds but may help to keep cloudy skies over southern parts. Cold front approaching southwest Australia with severe weather potential developing.

Low pressure sitting offshore the east coast with showers rolling up the NSW coast with troughs rotating around the low. Showers developing over the southwest of the nation with a gusty northwest flow later. Fine weather elsewhere with high pressure anchored over the nation, with cloudy skies persisting over the northwest inland.

Sunday 20th of June 2021

Large high pressure ridge over the southeast driving settled conditions for the weekend. A trough and upper low over the east keeping things unsettled along the east coast. A strong cold front deepening to a low pressure system with severe weather potential. Fine with seasonal weather for much of northern Australia.

Large high pressure over the southeast with a cold night giving way to a sunny day throughout the region. A trough along the east coast with showers continuing over the NSW and southeast QLD coast. Rain developing over the southwest with strong and gusty winds. Cloud increasing over the northwest of the nation with rain developing at night. Warming up over SA with a northerly flow developing. Fine throughout the remainder of the nation.

Monday 21st of June 2021

Upper low deepening over the southwest with severe weather potential over the region. A strengthening upper high over the southeast with settled weather and temperatures warming up over the course of Monday. A weak trough hanging on over the east with unsettled weather for the east coast.

Rain with some heavy falls over the western interior with a large cloud band. A very deep low over WA bringing showers, areas of rain and gales to the region. Showers continuing over the east coast, some heavy with a trough hanging on over the region. A strong high pressure system over the southeast keeping skies clear and settled. Warmer weather developing for much of the nation.

Tuesday 22nd of June 2021

A deep upper low over WA continuing to move slowly east, with a strong ridge over the southeast. The high amplitude pattern contributing to a risk of severe weather over WA with that low pressure system. Clearing conditions over the eastern inland under a ridge, and temperatures rising over the north as a ridge builds.

A large cloud band moving from WA into SA with widespread rainfall and a few thunderstorms. A strong wind regime through the east reaching gale force over the south coast of WA with damaging winds possible. A showery easterly flow continues for the east coast with onshore winds. Fine elsewhere with cloud thickening over the interior from central areas into the east but not much rain expected.

Wednesday 23rd of June 2021

Deep upper low sitting over SA/WA border moving east, finally kicking out the strong ridge into the Tasman Sea. Rain moving from central areas of the nation into the eastern inland later in the day with a strong northeast flow. A cold airmass in the wake of the low over WA, but a new ridge may come in to ease conditions. Heights coming up over northern Australia with a warm airmass.

Rain with moderate falls through SA extending into QLD, NSW and VIC throughout the day. Showers will increase over the east coast in onshore northeast to easterly winds. A cold airmass in the wake of the low, on the western flank of the system will drive showers, local hail and thunder with strong and gusty westerly winds back along the WA and SA coastlines. The low is becoming decoupled from the trough over the east and cutting off in this latest run.

Thursday 24th of June 2021

Deep upper low west of Adelaide with a cold airmass over the region. High pressure system over the Tasman and another ridge over the southwest of the nation will keep weather dry in these locations. Fast moving zonal flow over the middle portions of the nation will continue to drive thick cloud over much of the nation.

Deep surface low near Adelaide, under an upper low driving the weather throughout the southeast of the nation, with widespread showers, some thundery over SA, with moderate falls. Rain and thunderstorms over NSW and QLD with the trough slowly moving east to clear the coast later. Rain developing over TAS as a front, possibly occluded, moves over the region. A dry slot over VIC will keep the region mostly dry. Humidity back up over the NT with showers during the morning. Fine over the west of the nation under a weak ridge.

Sunday 27th of June 2021

Broad long wave trough with multiple waves sweeping the south of the nation in a fast flow pattern with wintry weather for much of the south. Upper ridge over the NT but fairly weak, enough to elevate temperatures and increase humidity once again.

A westerly wind belt sending a series of fronts from west to east across the southern ocean with a gusty westerly flow. Cold with widespread showers for southern coastal areas of all the states. A high pressure belt over the interior regions of the nation with clearing skies for QLD and NSW with another cloud band possibly developing for WA with moisture racing in on the jet stream ahead of a front there.


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