NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - FRIDAY 16TH OF JULY 2021

Headlines


  • Widespread showers over the southeast states with thunderstorms expected to redevelop in a cold and unstable airmass.

  • Heavy rainfall expected to develop for parts of southeast SA, southern VIC, southeast NSW and parts of the ACT in the coming 24-36hrs

  • More rainfall to develop next week as the frontal weather takes off again with moisture increasing in the northwest and westerly wind profile in the upper atmosphere.

  • The northern half of the nation, hot and dry as we enter the weekend.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Friday 16th of July 2021.

A cold and unstable airmass continues this morning with widespread showers, hail and thunder throughout the southeast with moderate falls. The shower activity is expected to increase in coverage over the coming 36hrs with a southwest surge moving through the Bight. That is where the coldest air is currently situated.

Temperatures - Friday 16th of July 2021.

Milder in the east this morning, with temperatures well above average over QLD to start the day ahead of the trough. Cooler gusty westerly winds are expected to sweep through today. Cold back through the southwest of the nation with winds easing, some isolated frost possible over inland WA. Temperatures over the southeast above average this morning but will barely move today in the showery weather.

Showery moist airmass has kept temperatures up overnight with significant cloud cover also keeping cloud up over the northern parts of NSW and a northwest flow. The weather set to become colder from the west later today with a southwesterly change, starting in SA this afternoon and into the east overnight.

Radar - Friday 16th of July 2021.

Widespread showers over the southeastern states with moderate falls. Some of the showers thundery, with the coverage of showers and storms increasing in the process of the daytime heating. There is more organised frontal weather offshore SA.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Friday 16th of July 2021.

Rainfall totals still largely unchanged this morning, with the southeast copping the best of it still, with multiple frontal passages during the coming 10 days. Some of that could produce some moderate to heavy falls at times. Another system developing early next week bringing moderate rainfall through southwestern WA. Dry weather over the north seems fair given the upper air pattern dominated by an upper high.

GFS Rainfall next 16 days - Friday 16th of July 2021.

Not much change in the guidance with the north dry and hot, and the south cooler with showery weather thanks to the westerly wind regime dominating. Moisture still expected to infuse the frontal weather coming in via the Indian Ocean which would mean frontal weather would be more productive for southern states. Some of that rainfall getting inland.

Euro Rainfall next 10 days - Friday 16th of July 2021.

The Euro this morning keeping the southeast states wet with a westerly burst to persist the coming 10 days, has curiously started to dam the moisture over WA with rainfall struggling to make it into the western inland. The drier signal not as strong for inland NSW so there are so movements on this moisture and as I have said, once we get the southeast event off the board, then we will have a better handle of the west coast event. So probably Sunday afternoon we will know more on that follow up rainfall next week.

CMC Rainfall next 10 days - Friday 16th of July 2021.

The model showing more moisture streaming into the westerly wind regime next week and a follow up event coming through the western inland like Euro and GFS were showing last night. In the meantime, dry and hot over the north and wet and colder for the southeast with the moderate to heavy rainfall to continue.

Models Discussion - (I have cut down the content and reading so it is a little easier for those on the fly)


GFS Upper Air Pattern next 16 days - Friday 16th of July 2021.

Taking us out to the end of the month and we can see a significant amount of frontal weather to work through as we track fronts through the southern parts of the country, especially the southeast of the nation with cold and showery weather expected. The upper ridge over the north is persistent with heights above average leading to above average temperatures and elevated fire dangers. The warm and dry weather will extend to the northern half of QLD and WA also.

GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 16 days

Widespread showery weather as you can see reflected in the upper flow pattern will be observed in the surface pattern. Seasonal weather for the coming 10 days at least with widespread showery bursts through the southern and southeastern parts of the nation. Fine weather over the north with a dry airmass. The focus of the rainfall looks to be more favourbale over the southeast over the southwest, which is a pattern flip from earlier this month, that said, it does not mean the southwest is expected to be dry.

GFS Precipitable Water Values next 16 days

Looking at the total moisture content in the atmosphere rather than anomalies and you can see there is plenty of moisture riding the jet stream into nation as well as in the westerly wind belt. We can see the impact of that higher moisture content over the southern parts of the nation with widespread rainfall during recent days with more of that to come. With the fontal weather expected to increase again early in the week, more rainfall and windy weather is expected this coming week. Some chance still of that rainfall coming into the inland early next week and again later in the week with another moisture plume linking up with a low pressure system.

Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall next 16 days.

The Euro largely unchanged this morning, it has simmered down the weather next week coming through WA, but as per the GFS and CMC this morning, they still have significant moisture coming across the country and rather than react to one model run that is an outlier, I will continue the persistence forecast and therefore my forecasts are largely unchanged for next week.

State by state analysis coming up during the next hour. I will have the climate forecast later this morning for the August to October Season ahead. More analysis on the cold and showery weather throughout the day and keep an eye on the thunderstorms rolling through SA,VIC, NSW and TAS as they could pack a punch with hail and gusty winds.

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