NATIONAL WEATHER PICTURE - AM EDITION - FRIDAY 11TH JUNE 2021

Headlines


  • Heavy rain and strong winds slowly easing for NSW and the snowline lifting today.

  • Rain developing for eastern TAS and VIC once again.

  • Showers increasing for WA with another wave moving in.

  • Could there be more wild weather next week?

A deep low currently along the NSW coast is tracking steadily south today, pushed along by a blocking pattern over NZ. That is going to force the low south, weakening as it moves into the Tasman Sea. Showers with areas of rain in the east of VIC and NSW will contract into TAS throughout the day before easing on Saturday.


Rain could be heavy at times in TAS with possibly minor flooding in the east.


Showers developing for WA once again on Friday afternoon and throughout the weekend with an unstable cold airmass, with a number of upper troughs/waves moving through the broad westerly flow. Some thunder is also possible about coastal areas.


The upper low will move through into SA during the weekend and into the east early next week followed by a much stronger system coming out of the Southern Ocean. That may deliver another round of strong winds and cold weather with further low level snowfalls possible.


National Satellite Picture - Valid Friday June 11th 2021.

Deep low circulating along the central coast of NSW bringing showers and the odd storm to the south coast of NSW with moderate falls. Cloud increasing over the east of TAS and VIC with rain developing. Clearing over the inland of NSW with pressure rising and dry air returning. Cloud over SA is fair weather. Low cloud and a few showers over parts of WA.

Low pressure sitting off the Central Coast of NSW bringing areas of rain and showers with moderate falls to southeast NSW, VIC and TAS during Friday with the rainfall moving south and east during the afternoon. Clear skies brought a much colder morning than forecast throughout the southeast inland.

Temperatures - Valid Friday June 11th 2021

A cold start over the eastern inland and indeed over the northern inland of Australia with well below average temperatures overnight. Severe frost over parts of the central west with snow on the ground over the region. Warmer out west with a gusty northwest to westerly flow and more cloud cover keeping temperatures above average.

The dry southeasterly surge allowing overnight temperatures to freely fall over the NT and QLD with frost over the southern half of the NT at elevation and extending into the southern inland of QLD. More cold nights and dry sunny warm days still expected this weekend.

Radar - Valid Friday June 11th 2021

Showers and the odd storm over southeast NSW with moderate falls continuing on the southern side of the weakening low pressure. Patchy light rainfall over southeast WA with showers for the southwest coast, otherwise it is much drier over the nation as the severe weather eases.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday June 11th 2021.

GFS 12z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid June 11th 2021.

CMC 12z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid June 11th 2021.

Euro 12z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid June 11th 2021.

Model Analysis and Discussion

GFS 12z run - Valid June 11th 2021


GFS 500mb/18000ft flow pattern showing the movement of weather in the upper levels

Surface Pressure pattern and rainfall distribution


Friday 11th June 2021

Upper low weakening over the southeast moving south as a blocking pattern in the Tasman continues to hold firm. A weak ridge over SA keeping the region dry and clearing the eastern inland. Another upper trough approaching the west coast bringing some increasing clouds and winds.

A low pressure system will move off the SE NSW coast towards eastern TAS taking the rain, and heavy falls with it to the apple isle. Cloudy over the west with increasing showers and one or two thunderstorms with another upper trough moving in from the west. Clearing over eastern and southern Australia with a weak ridge. Dry and warm over the northern half of Australia.

Saturday 12th June 2021

Upper low moving east of Tasmania with the blocking pattern over NZ continuing, very strong ridge in place. Upper trough over WA progressing east north of the ridge over the southeast. Heights recovering over the northern parts of Australia. Temperatures recovering after a very cold start through the eastern and southern inland.

Deep low offshore Tasmania leading to rain in the morning, but as the system moves away, the rain will turn to showers and clear at night. Snowfalls could be falling to lower levels. Showers and storms coming through southern and eastern WA with light falls generally, moisture is fairly limited. Cloud increasing through SA but milder weather over the eastern inland with a high consolidating through the east, cold nights leading to sunny days.

Sunday 13th June 2021

Ridging building over Tasmania and a weak ridge over the inland beginning to be replaced by an upper trough through SA and into the west of the NSW and VIC regions. Blocking pattern on NZ starting to break down a bit. Another strong front approaching WA later in the day, with a cold airmass in toe.

Low pressure offshore SA bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the central and southeast coast. A weak upper trough over Central QLD will kick off light rain and a lot of cloud. A front approaching the southwest of the nation will increase winds and bring showers and the chance of thunder and hail late in the day. Fine in the east after another cold start with sunshine to follow.

Monday 14th June 2021

Deep upper low off WA with a front leading bringing widespread cold wintry weather. Weak ridge in the east moving eastwards during the day. Weak trough over QLD producing cloudy and colder weather for the region with the chance of rainfall. Weak trough over SA moving into western NSW will be the focus of some follow up falls into the eastern inland.

Upper troughs over the east producing patchy rain in central coastal QLD and the adjacent inland. Another upper trough over western NSW bringing scattered showers and rumble of thunder. Another trough coming into SA will bring late showers to the southeast of SA and western VIC also with a rumble of thunder. Strong cold front driving showers along the south coast of WA into SA with local hail and squalls. Fine elsewhere with temperatures generally below average.

Tuesday 15th June 2021

Deep upper low moving towards the east, reaching the east of SA later in the day. Trough over QLD lifting out to sea, but still mildly unstable over the eastern inland. New ridge moving into southwest parts of the nation keeping things dry and sunny after a cold start.

Showers increasing over eastern and southern SA with moderate falls possible about the coastal districts. A trough over eastern QLD lifting offshore, but residual moisture may trigger further patchy rain and or showers. Showers developing through the highlands over the southeast in a mildly unstable gusty northwest to northerly flow. Clearing skies over the southwest with a new high pressure arriving. Fine elsewhere over the nation.

Wednesday 16th June 2021

Upper low over western VIC spreading cold and wintry conditions through the eastern states, with a colder westerly flow to follow. Weak ridge offshore the east coast will progress eastwards. An upper trough over inland WA will remain largely in active but thick cloud could develop later from the northwest with the impulse of moisture from the Indian Ocean.

Left over moisture from a northeast flow will activate over the eastern inland with patchy rain and thunderstorms from central QLD through to TAS with moderate falls about, that will move towards the coast, with a colder change to follow. Showery through the southeast with gusty winds and showers. Small hail and thunder over SA with snowfalls lowering over the Alpine areas. A large high moving into SW WA, but slow moving allowing a cold southerly flow to take over the central and east, opening the door for further cold air to ride up from the south.

Thursday 17th June 2021

Upper low moving east offshore the south coast of NSW, another follow up trough and pool of cold air moving north through the Bight. A trough also moving east through WA with a cold airmass over the nation. A zonal flow continuing throughout Australia. Below average temperatures will continue for a most of next week.

Low pressure deepening offshore the South Coast causing showers, areas of rain and gusty winds over the southeast, with cold air. Showers increasing once again over southern SA with a sharp trough moving north. Rain clearing the east coast with a drier westerly flow developing. Fine weather for the north and west with light winds and cold nights returning.

Saturday 19th June 2021

In 10 days time, the model continues to ping cold air wafting through the country with a deep centre over NSW with possibly more low level snowfalls. Ridging back over WA remaining slow moving keeping the west dry for a while. Heights coming down as we track through the coming 2 weeks again over northern Australia so more dry season air to come keeping the humidity north over Timor Leste.

A very cold airmass over the east driving a wintry outbreak with showers, hail and thunder and the potential for more low level snowfalls over NSW and VIC. High pressure slowly moving east into the Bight will bring warmer and sunnier airmass to WA with a northeast flow developing. Seasonal weather over northern Australia with a gusty easterly flow continuing. But this is 10 days out and it will likely change, but the cold signal continues.


Need more weather info for you part of the world? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for more details.

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