NATIONAL - THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 4 DAYS

A reminder that severe thunderstorms are already unfolding across many parts of the nation this morning indicating the severe weather potential is expected to ramp up this afternoon in the peak of day time heating.


Remain weather aware and know your risks each day as the weather systems pass through. Keep that radar handy!!


Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing through QLD and the NT, with locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern on Tuesday. Thunderstorms over WA will likely produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but marginally severe at this time. They could reach the eastern suburbs of Perth/Darling Scarp later in the day. Heavy rainfall and damaging winds possible over the NT with a deep moisture plume and jet aloft, there could be some dangerous flash flooding between Enebella and Alice Springs which may cut the Stuart Highway.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

A small low pressure system developing near Tasmania may create more favourable conditions for dangerous thunderstorm activity through southeast QLD and eastern NSW with dangerous flash flooding likely to unfold with the bigger thunderstorms, given the near record PW values. Large to giant hail and destructive winds/isolated tornado activity cannot be ruled out over eastern NSW and southern and southeast QLD. Scattered thunderstorms near a trough and deepening low pressure system over the NT and SA could produce locally heavy rainfall with dangerous flash flooding over the southern districts of the NT. It is a line ball whether these make it south to the Ag Areas of SA but keep watch of these forecasts. The storms contract out of WA with a drier southerly flow developing in the wake of the low pressure system.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Scattered to extensive thunderstorm activity likely to develop in the warm sector ahead of a low pressure system through QLD and northeast NSW. Some of the storms likely to produce dangerous conditions with high end flash flood flooding and damaging winds likely to be the main feature though large hail cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding contracting east through the NT though may continue over much of the Top End. The storm risk contracting east out of SA and through VIC during day as a large rain mass moves through the region with the low pressure system, keeping the surface cool and stable. But where the sun comes out or where it is warmer, severe thunderstorms are likely in advance of this system in the east.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

The surge of cooler southerly winds can be see across the country, but ahead of that surge of dry cooler air, showers and thunderstorms will continue, locally severe with dangerous flash flooding possible about parts of the Wide Bay and Capricornia, Central coasts of QLD. Large hail and damaging winds also possible. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall also a risk for the Top End ahead of the dry line. Some chance of marble sized hail over tropical QLD and the NT with robust convection.

More details to come throughout the day. Stay weather aware!!!