NATIONAL - STORM FORECAST THURSDAY

The storm outlook is very busy and runs through the next 10 days for the eastern areas of the nation but I will take a look at the dangerous thunderstorm activity expected over much of NSW/ACT and QLD today with a potent deep tropical airmass.


NEW SOUTH WALES

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Strong to severe storms are ongoing this afternoon and will continue tonight with the risk of heavy rainfall the main concern through much of the state. In the warmer sector over the far north some of the storms could drop large hail and damaging winds where there is greater lift, wind shear and instability with the upper low axis passing through. Storms have a high chance of producing 30-50mm where they form in an hour.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Heavy rainfall with thunderstorms have been observed throughout the state overnight with some locations reporting flash flooding. This risk continues this evening and will persist into Thursday and peak during the afternoon and evening once again. Some areas could see 50mm/hr.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds are a moderate to high risk over the far north but more likely to be found in QLD where the instability and forcing is greater given the warmer airmass. The air is too rain cooled further south over much of the state.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Similar to the damaging winds risk, you will find a low to moderate risk running along the northern inland up to the QLD border, but the greater risk of large hail will be found in QLD on Thursday afternoon.

Riverine Flood Risk Next 7 Days

Riverine flooding is still likely to develop, peak and persist through later this week and during the next 7 days with more rainfall most of the outlook.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are contracting east through the state and mainly into NSW by late morning. Thunderstorms this evening and during the early morning may produce falls of 50mm/hr so that could cause significant flash flooding through the outback and in areas where there is no rainfall observations, making it quite dangerous in this region. The air dries out and stabalises later today with the storm risk ending.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday into Thursday

Flash flooding is a very high risk today as mentioned through the updates yesterday and this continues until this afternoon before the low contracts into NSW. Standing water and roads cut may persist for some locations.

Riverine Flood Risk Next 4 Days

After this rain concludes, flooding will still persist over the eastern areas with communities possibly cut off for a period of time through the weekend.

QUEENSLAND

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will continue overnight and Thursday for inland areas with storms turning severe in a heartbeat over southern inland areas during the afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather is possible. Some of these storms could reach the southeast inland at night with heavy rainfall the main risk. Storms along the coast in the unstable northeast flow may produce areas of heavy rainfall with a flash flood risk. That also extends to Cape York in the afternoon as well.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

A very high chance of flash flooding through the inland overnight and again on Thursday with significant flood risks already in place along saturated catchments so remain weather aware. Some areas could record 70mm/hr.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds are a high risk through the southern inland as the lift and wind shear improves supporting more robust updrafts where the sun can break out. An organised squall line is also possible along a trough passing through.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Large hail is possible about the far southern Downs but the risk is low up to the central districts with a hot and humid airmass being lifted by a trough rotating through.

Riverine Flood Risk Next 7 Days

The riverine flooding continues and the risk is for renewed flooding and for further catchments to go into flood with heavy rainfall for days on end and the chance of flash flooding adding to peaks down the river systems as well.

Stay weather aware today with the risks very high throughout the east.


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