NATIONAL - STORM FORECAST NEXT 3 DAYS

It is a busy day of thunderstorms across the nation today. Latest details below.


Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are ongoing from overnight and are currently moving through VIC and NSW and these are elevated and non severe at this time. The main storm action will erupt through eastern SA, western QLD, the NT and through northwest NSW and move south and east through the day into central and southern NSW with heavy rainfall the main risks. The heavy rainfall rates could exceed 60mm/hr. Damaging winds are also possible but not a strong chance in NSW but more likely in QLD. There is very little risk of large hail with atmosphere saturated but we could see some hail near the developing low in SA.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are currently in progress this morning and they will continue this afternoon and move east this morning, elevated and non severe. Further thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in a broad band from the north down through central areas and back into the southwest where they may become severe. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as mentioned through most of this week the main concern along with a few storms producing damaging winds. This activity will progress eastwards to the slopes during the evening but more likely flattening out into an area of rain with moderate to heavy falls.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding is a high chance with any thunderstorm activity that forms throughout the region identified with copious amounts of tropical air being lifted by a deepening trough and developing low pressure system back in SA. The risk translates east during the evening.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds a moderate risk along the leading edge of the thunderstorm activity that forms. If a squall line develops then the risk is elevated but that is a conditional risk. At this stage rainfall is more of a concern.

QUEENSLAND

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

A high chance of thunderstorms over southern and southwest of the state with high levels of atmospheric moisture leading to a decent chance of severe thunderstorms leading to flash flooding. Garden variety pop up showers and storms from inland of the coast extending inland through to the remainder, less of a chance through Cape York. Storms in the south will continue overnight.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding is a high chance with thunderstorms through the southern and southwest of the state extending east during the evening. Showers training over the coast may produce flash flooding over the Sunshine Coast.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms over the far southwest during the evening. The main risk is from heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue Wednesday. Some of those could be heavy at times with the chance of flash flooding. That risk expands tomorrow near a developing low with the highest risk between Port Augusta to Leigh Creek to Broken Hill and down to about Renmark. That will be your zone, can still change. The thunderstorm coverage contracts east slowly through the day.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

High atmospheric moisture content combined with instability will lead to thunderstorms dropping heavy rainfall rates during the afternoon and evening in particular, with the slow storm motion leading to some locations recording over 50mm in an hour.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are a high chance on the northern and eastern flank of where a low pressure begins to form during the afternoon and evening.

NATIONAL PICTURE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to be widespread through the east and north with the risk of severe thunderstorms, producing heavy rainfall leading to dangerous flash flooding and damaging winds, mainly over NSW, the ACT and QLD. The tropics will see widespread showers and thunderstorms with some damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms beginning to shift north and east as a drier southeast to southerly change moves through the southeast states. Ahead of the wind shift, the deep moisture is still in place with a risk of flash flooding and riverine flooding with the heavy thunderstorms moving over the region. Storms over the tropics also severe about the western Top End with damaging winds and heavy rainfall. This could spread into the Kimberly as well.

FLOOD RISKS NEXT WEEK

FLOOD RISK SOUTH AUSTRAIA

Flooding is a chance for the eastern areas of the state with the highest chance of riverine flooding and flash flooding under the developing tomorrow with the area to watch between Port Augusta to Leigh Creek through to Cockburn down to Renmark and over to Yunta. This is where the heaviest rainfall is to be found. It eases Thursday.

FLOOD RISK NEW SOUTH WALES AND VICTORIA

Flooding is a risk across many areas of the state during the coming week with the highest risk over southern and eastern areas, along the slopes west of the divide. There is major flooding ongoing and once again most of the state is under the threat of new or renewed flooding until the weekend. This flood risk may be extended to next week as well IF the models align and keep the rain and thunderstorms going in onshore winds.

FLOOD RISK QUEENSLAND

Flood risk increasing once again through the latter part of this week into the weekend. Starting out in the southwest where flooding has not been recorded. That will be low level minor flooding at this time, but pay attention to thunderstorm warnings for high end flash flooding. Then the flood risk increases over the flood zones with heavy falls this weekend and continuing into next week. This may be expanded to Central QLD as well if the falls verify.

More coming up throughout the day.